发布时间: 2026-03-06T20:19:34.321Z / 来源: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/texas-senate-runoff-trump-endorsement
分析:
Aaron Blake
3小时前
发布: 2026年3月6日，美国东部时间下午3:19
唐纳德·特朗普 初选 国会新闻
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照片: 参议员约翰·科宁（Sen. John Cornyn）、总统唐纳德·特朗普（President Donald Trump）和得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton）。
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总统唐纳德·特朗普表示他不会仅在得克萨斯州参议员约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）和州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）之间的初选决选中支持一位候选人，而是还会试图让另一位候选人退出。这一表态已过去两天，但支持仍未到来。
特朗普周五表示他将“很快做出决定”，但暗示他首先希望弄清楚他支持的选民ID立法—以及候选人在该问题上的立场。
“我强烈认为我们必须拥有完整的《SAVE美国法案》（SAVE America Act），明白吗？我想要《SAVE美国法案》。它比我们正在处理的其他一切事情都重要，除了战争。”特朗普在接受CNN的达娜·巴什（Dana Bash）简短电话采访时表示。
因此，局势似乎陷入了某种僵持。这或许并不令人意外。因为尽管特朗普的支持通常是共和党初选中一切的关键，但这种情况对他来说并不容易。
传统观点和最合乎逻辑的结果似乎是，特朗普将在5月26日决选前支持科宁。
一位在任总统亲自支持自己党内的另一位在任参议员反对另一位在任参议员，这将是令人震惊的，尤其是考虑到科宁得到了全国共和党的支持。
科宁在周二的初选中也比许多人预期的表现更好，以42%-41%的微弱优势击败帕克斯顿。
最后—或许最紧迫的是—得克萨斯州民主党人在周二提名了州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里奇（James Talarico）作为他们在大选中更担心的对手。考虑到帕克斯顿的争议—包括已解决的证券欺诈调查、州众议院弹劾（参议院宣告无罪）以及其妻子被指控不忠—共和党人确实担心提名他不仅可能在11月出现蓝色浪潮时危及该席位，还可能帮助民主党翻转参议院。
因此，理论上，特朗普介入支持科宁以获得胜利，让共和党在秋季不必担心这个席位，这是很有道理的。
但现实要复杂一些。一方面，试图将帕克斯顿排挤出去可能会让非常尊重他的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动感到沮丧，而该运动对科宁几乎没有尊重。特朗普周三宣布后，一些知名的MAGA社交媒体账号试图警告总统不要支持科宁。
“科宁恨特朗普和MAGA，”MAGA影响者迈克·切尔诺维奇（Mike Cernovich）说，“支持他将是特朗普政府的棺材钉。”
特朗普在2023年曾发文称科宁几乎和当时的参议员米特·罗姆尼（Mitt Romney，经常批评他）一样糟糕。特朗普称科宁“软弱、无能，对共和党非常不利”，并暗示他“总是急于向民主党投降”。特朗普仍然拥有其基本盘的忠诚，但他近几个月做了一些可能危及这一忠诚的事情。支持科宁将成为新的一笔。
但或许更重要的是，帕克斯顿至少目前坚持不会遵守特朗普要求他退出的意愿。
“我有责任对得克萨斯州人民负责，”帕克斯顿周三表示。
（帕克斯顿周四提出，如果参议院领导层同意在没有通常60票门槛的情况下通过《拯救美国法案》，他就退出竞选。但这可能只是个噱头；考虑到参议院共和党人似乎没有足够的票数，并且这会进一步削弱阻挠议事，他们不太可能真的这么做。）
如果说有什么的话，帕克斯顿的立场更像是试图阻止特朗普支持科宁的虚张声势。但如果帕克斯顿真的留在竞选中，没有人能绝对保证总统的支持就一定能决定结果。
特朗普支持的候选人几乎总是能赢得初选，但过去也有例外。根据Ballotpedia的汇编，特朗普支持的候选人输掉提名的情况包括：
- 2024年犹他州参议员席位
- 2024年科罗拉多州和南卡罗来纳州国会席位
- 2022年五个国会席位
- 2022年三次州长竞选
即使在本周的选举中，特朗普支持的北卡罗来纳州参议院议长菲尔·伯杰（Phil Berger）也陷入了极其接近的竞争。
这些情况更多是例外而非常规。而由于特朗普现在是在任总统，他的支持可能更具分量。但民调显示，这可能并不一定能确保科宁赢得竞选。
例如，1月底休斯顿大学的一项民调显示，在初选中排名第三的众议员韦斯利·亨特（Wesley Hunt）的支持者中，有48%倾向于帕克斯顿，而支持科宁的只有35%。
同一项民调还显示，对一些初选选民来说，支持科宁可能是个障碍，因为在可能的选民中，他的支持率相对较低（61%），而30%的人不喜欢他。尽管科宁的净支持率为+31，但帕克斯顿的净支持率为+50（72%支持率，22%反对率）。
与此同时，上个月德克萨斯大学的一项民调显示两人总体支持率相似，但帕克斯顿在共和党人中的处境略好。
如果选民不一定像国家共和党那样担心帕克斯顿的当选能力，谁能说他们不会选择更喜欢的人呢？到那时，这真的就只取决于是否服从特朗普的意愿了。
特朗普喜欢扮演“造王者”的角色，并且他证明了自己很擅长。但这可能是对他这一角色的一次重大考验。
唐纳德·特朗普 初选 国会新闻
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Trump’s dilemma in Texas
Published Time: 2026-03-06T20:19:34.321Z / Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/06/politics/texas-senate-runoff-trump-endorsement
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Mar 6, 2026, 3:19 PM ET
Donald Trump Primary elections Congressional news
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Sen. John Cornyn, President Donald Trump and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
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It’s been two days since President Donald Trump said he would not only endorse a candidate in the Texas primary runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, but that he would also try to get the other candidate to bow out.
That endorsement still hasn’t come.
Trump said on Friday that he’ll make a “decision fairly shortly,” but suggested he first wants to get some clarity on voter ID legislation he favors – and where the candidates stand on it.
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“I feel very strongly that we have to have the full and complete SAVE America Act, OK? I want the SAVE America Act. It is more important than everything else we’re working on other than the war,” Trump told CNN’s Dana Bash in a brief phone interview.
So it appears we’re in a bit of a holding pattern. Which might not be too surprising. Because even as Trump’s endorsement is often the be-all, end-all in GOP primaries, this situation is not an easy one for him.
The conventional wisdom – and the most logical outcome – would seem to be that Trump will endorse Cornyn ahead of the May 26 runoff.
It would be shocking for an incumbent president to endorse against an incumbent senator from his own party, especially given Cornyn is backed by the national party.
Cornyn also did better than many expected in Tuesday’s primaries, narrowly outpacing Paxton 42%-41%.
And finally – and perhaps most urgently – Texas Democrats on Tuesday nominated the candidate that Republicans seem to be more concerned about in the general election, in state Rep. James Talarico. Given Paxton’s baggage – which includes a since settled securities fraud investigation, an impeachment by the state House (and acquittal by the Senate), and allegations of infidelity from his wife – there is real fear that nominating him could not only jeopardize the seat if there’s a blue wave in November, but possibly help Democrats flip the Senate.
So, in theory, it would make a lot of sense for Trump to swoop in, spur Cornyn to victory, and allow the GOP to hopefully not have to worry about this seat in the fall.
But reality is a little more complicated. For one, trying to nudge aside Paxton could be demoralizing for a MAGA movement that holds him in very high regard but has little respect for Cornyn. After Trump made his announcement Wednesday, a number of prominent MAGA social media accounts sought to warn the president off a potential Cornyn endorsement.
“Cornyn hates Trump and MAGA,” MAGA influencer Mike Cernovich said. “Endorsing him will be a nail in the Trump administration’s coffin.”
Trump himself in 2023 wrote a post suggesting Cornyn was about as bad as then-Sen. Mitt Romney, a frequent critic. Trump called Cornyn “weak, ineffective, and very bad for the Republican Party” and suggested he was “always quick to surrender to the Dems.” Trump still has the loyalty of his base, but he’s done a number of things in recent months that risk jeopardizing it. A Cornyn endorsement would add to the list.
But perhaps more significantly, Paxton is – at least for now – insisting he wouldn’t abide by Trump’s wishes to bow out.
“I owe it to the people of Texas,” Paxton said Wednesday.
(Paxton did offer Thursday to drop out of the race if Senate leadership agreed to pass the Save America Act without the usual 60-vote threshold. But that’s likely a stunt; it’s very unlikely Senate Republicans would actually do that, given they don’t seem to have the votes and it would further erode the filibuster.)
If anything, Paxton’s position feels like a bluff to try and prevent Trump from endorsing Cornyn. But if Paxton were to actually stay in the race, there’s no absolute guarantee that the president’s endorsement would be dispositive.
Trump’s endorsees almost always win primaries, but there have been exceptions in the past. According to a compilation by Ballotpedia, Trump’s preferred candidates have lost nominations for:
- Senator from Utah in 2024
- Congressional seats in Colorado and South Carolina in 2024
- Five congressional seats in 2022
- Three governor’s races in 2022
Even in this week’s elections, Trump-endorsed North Carolina state Senate President Phil Berger is locked in an exceedingly close race.
These are very much the exception rather than the rule. And Trump’s endorsement likely carries even more weight now that he’s an incumbent president. But even the polling suggests it might not necessarily lock up the race for Cornyn.
A University of Houston poll from late January, for instance, showed supporters of Rep. Wesley Hunt, who finished third in the primary, were more inclined toward Paxton (48% of them) than Cornyn (35%).
The same poll also suggested voting for Cornyn could be a hurdle for some primary voters, given his favorable rating among likely voters was a relatively low 61%, with 30% disliking him. While Cornyn’s net favorable rating was plus-31, Paxton’s was plus-50 (72% favorable to 22% unfavorable).
A University of Texas poll last month, meanwhile, showed both men with similar overall approval ratings. But again, Paxton was in slightly better shape among Republicans.
And if voters don’t necessarily share the national GOP’s concerns about Paxton’s electability, who’s to say they won’t just go for the guy they like more? At that point, it would truly just be about obeying Trump’s wishes.
Trump loves the idea of playing kingmaker, and he’s proven quite good at it. But this could be a really big test of it.
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