2026年3月4日 上午11:04 UTC / 路透社
作者：内森·莱恩（Nathan Layne）和亚历山德拉·米哈尔斯卡（Aleksandra Michalska）
（注：此处为原文图片占位符，实际翻译不包含图片内容）
U.S. President Donald Trump attends a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- 摘要
- 特朗普青年选民支持打击行动，担忧局势升级
- 支持杀死哈梅内伊的情绪中夹杂焦虑
- 学生质疑特朗普“美国优先”政策的一致性
- 对伊朗局势走向不明的担忧加剧
- 特朗普的青年支持率出现下滑迹象
新罕布什尔州曼彻斯特，3月4日（路透社） – 当迈克尔·利里得知美国对伊朗发动打击时，他质疑这一行动是否兑现了让他在2024年投票支持特朗普总统的“美国优先”承诺，并担心这可能将美国拖入又一场中东泥潭。
这位19岁的学生表示，他对伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊（Ayatollah Ali Khamenei）的死亡感到欢迎，并不急于谴责特朗普的决定，希望与以色列的联合行动能迅速展开并减少美军伤亡。
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“我支持特朗普的原因之一就是他会奉行‘美国优先’政策，这是他竞选时的口号，”利里说道，他在2024年投出了自己的第一张总统选票。
“我并不反对战争或打击行动……我们需要进一步了解局势发展，但这似乎与他之前的表态有所背离。”
在路透社本周于新罕布什尔州圣安塞尔姆学院采访的一个学生小组中，其他五名特朗普支持者也表达了类似的复杂情绪——既支持杀死哈梅内伊，又担忧特朗普推动的“政权更迭”可能将美国卷入长期冲突。
年轻男性选民是2024年选举中的最大意外之一。在民主党多年主导青年投票后，他们开始转向支持特朗普。但最近的民调显示，由于对持续的通货膨胀和强硬的移民执法政策（部分人认为过于严苛）感到不满，这部分支持率正在下滑。
路透社/益普索（Reuters/Ipsos）周末的民调显示，只有四分之一的美国人支持美国对伊朗发动打击。
尽管学生小组样本规模较小，但已初步反映出部分年轻男性对伊朗打击行动的态度，这表明特朗普可能只有有限的窗口来为美国取得明确成果，并稳定已蔓延至黎巴嫩、撼动全球市场、推高油价的冲突。
迅速结束伊朗战争可能有助于特朗普塑造果断指挥官的形象，但长期冲突则可能疏远那些助力他2024年东山再起的年轻男性。
20岁的政治学专业学生约翰·菲茨帕特里克表示，他支持“摧毁”伊朗政权，认为其长期威胁美国安全，而伊朗的报复性打击只是“垂死挣扎”。
“看到政权更迭会很好——但我们不应像在伊拉克那样派驻地面部队或深陷其中，”担任圣安塞尔姆学院共和党主席的菲茨帕特里克说，“总体而言，这是积极的一步。”
20岁的阿尔忒弥斯·盖林（Artemius Gehring）也表示赞同，认为特朗普的目标是结束自1979年人质危机以来的长期冲突——当时伊朗激进分子占领了美国驻德黑兰大使馆，并扣押数十名美国人长达444天。
“我认为他正在努力结束这场冲突，”盖林说，“这是正确的举措。”
局势走向不明引发担忧
20岁的大二学生泰勒·维茨加（Tyler Witzgall）表示，虽然支持杀死哈梅内伊，但他担心特朗普政府似乎缺乏具体的替换计划，这种权力真空可能加剧伊朗的不稳定甚至内战。
“他让伊朗人民起来接管政府，但这说起来容易做起来难，”维茨加说，“如果目前没有明确的计划（或我们已知的计划），我们为何要采取这些行动？”
维茨加认为，伊朗打击行动与1月抓捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）的行动一样，反映出特朗普政府对外交政策的过度强调。他表示，投票支持特朗普是为了推动经济增长和实现国内优先事项，希望其将更多精力放在这些方面。
特朗普关于抑制通货膨胀、促进经济增长和加强移民执法的承诺吸引了年轻男性。皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）分析的出口民调显示，在2024年选举中，特朗普赢得了18-29岁男性46%的选票，而民主党候选人、前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）获得51%。这与2020年形成巨大反差，当时特朗普年轻男性选民支持率比拜登低14个百分点（53% vs 39%）。
然而，最新民调显示这些优势正在消失。路透社/益普索2025年2月民调显示，18-29岁男性对特朗普的支持率从2025年2月的43%降至33%。
伊朗危机的解决方式将决定特朗普支持率是上升还是下降，这可能影响11月中期选举中共和党的选情。美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）对1004名美国人的民调显示，18-34岁选民对打击行动的反对态度最为强烈，71%表示不支持。
利里表示，现在判断伊朗打击行动是否正确还为时过早。
“这可能最终成为正确的举措，或者我们可能在伊朗陷入30多年的战争，耗费大量本可用于国内的资金。”
报道：内森·莱恩、亚历山德拉·米哈尔斯卡
编辑：罗斯·科尔文、迈克尔·佩里
标准声明：路透社信托原则
Iran crisis tests Trump standing with young men who helped power 2024 win
March 4, 2026 11:04 AM UTC / Reuters
By Nathan Layne and Aleksandra Michalska
U.S. President Donald Trump attends a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- Young Trump voters back strike, fear escalation
- Support for killing Khamenei mixed with anxiety
- Students question Trump’s “America First” consistency
- Worries grow over unclear Iran end‑game
- Youth backing for Trump shows signs of slipping
MANCHESTER, New Hampshire, March 4 (Reuters) – When Michael Leary learned the United States had struck Iran, he questioned whether the move honored the “America First” pledge that earned his vote for President Donald Trump and feared it could pull the country into another Middle East quagmire.
Yet the 19-year-old student said he welcomed news of the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and was not ready to condemn Trump’s decision, expressing hope the joint operation with Israel would be swift and spare American lives.
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“One of my things with Trump was it was going to be ‘America First.’ That was the rhetoric he was running on,” said Leary, who cast his first presidential ballot for Trump in 2024.
“It’s not that I disagree with the war or the strikes … We need to learn more and see what’s going to happen. But it felt like a step back from what he was saying.”
That mix of approval and unease — support for killing Khamenei while worrying that Trump’s push for “regime change” could pull the U.S. into a prolonged conflict — was echoed by five other Trump voters on a student panel that Reuters interviewed this week at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire.
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Young male voters were one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 election, swinging toward Trump after years of Democrats dominating the youth vote. But recent public opinion polls show that support slipping amid frustration over persistent inflation and hard-line immigration enforcement, tactics that some view as overly harsh.
Only one in four Americans support the U.S. strikes, Reuters/Ipsos polling at the weekend found.
The student panel, while a small sample, offers an early snapshot of how some young men are processing the Iran strikes, suggesting Trump may have a limited window to deliver clear gains for the United States and stabilize a conflict that has spread to Lebanon, rattled global markets and sent oil prices sharply higher.
A swift end to the Iran war could help Trump project an image as a decisive commander in chief, but a drawn-out conflict risks alienating the young men who helped power his 2024 resurgence.
John Fitzpatrick, a 20-year-old politics major, said he supported “decapitating” an Iranian regime he viewed as a longstanding threat to Americans and dismissed Iran’s retaliatory strikes as “scrambling for one last gasp of air.”
“It would be nice to see regime change — not that we should have boots on the ground or be as deeply entrenched as we were in Iraq,” said Fitzpatrick, who chairs the Saint Anselm College Republicans. “I think it’s overall positive.”
Artemius Gehring, 20, agreed, saying Trump’s objective was to bring closure to a longstanding conflict stretching back to the 1979 hostage crisis, when Iranian militants seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held dozens of Americans for 444 days.
“I think what he’s trying to do is just end it,” Gehring said. “It’s the right move.”
LACK OF AN END-GAME A WORRY
Tyler Witzgall, a 20-year-old sophomore, said that while he supported the killing of Khamenei he was worried about the apparent lack of a concrete plan by the Trump administration to replace him, a vacuum he feared could fuel instability or even civil war.
“He’s telling the people of Iran to rise up and take over the government, and that’s easier said than done,” Witzgall said. “Why are we taking these actions when there’s no specific plan right now or none that we know of?”
Witzgall said the Iran strikes, along with the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro in January, reflected what he saw as an overemphasis on foreign policy. He said he voted for Trump to boost the economy and deliver on domestic priorities and would like to see him focus more of his attention there.
Trump’s promises to rein in inflation, boost growth and toughen immigration enforcement helped attract young men to his campaign. Exit polling analyzed by the Pew Research Center shows he won 46% of men ages 18 to 29 in the 2024 election, compared with 51% for the Democratic nominee, former Vice President Kamala Harris. That marks a big shift from 2020, when Trump lost young men to President Joe Biden by 14 points, 53% to 39%.
Yet recent polling shows those gains have evaporated. In February, some 33% of men aged 18-29 approved of Trump’s performance in the White House, down from 43% in the same month of 2025, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling during those periods.
How the Iran crisis is resolved could determine whether Trump’s approval rating rises or falls, with potential consequences for Republicans in November’s midterms. A CNN poll of 1,004 Americans found that voters ages 18 to 34 registered the strongest opposition to the strikes, with 71% saying they disapproved.
Leary said it was too soon to say whether the Iran attacks were the correct course of action.
“It could absolutely turn into the right move, or we could stay in Iran for 30-plus years, spend a ton of money – money that could have been spent at home.”
Reporting by Nathan Layne and Aleksandra Michalska, editing by Ross Colvin and Michael Perry
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