2026年2月11日 / 美国东部时间下午1:07 / CBS新闻
Cardi B在Bad Bunny超级碗中场秀中的亮相引发了预测市场用户的争议，人们质疑她是否真正”表演”了。
预测市场用户就这位说唱歌手是否会在中场秀表演进行了分歧巨大的投注，美国国家橄榄球联盟(NFL)称这场表演吸引了约1.28亿观众。
周日Cardi B登台时，这位格莱美获奖歌手与Karol G、Young Miko、杰西卡·阿尔芭和佩德罗·帕斯卡等名人在一个粉色门廊布景上共舞。但目前尚不清楚这位艺人是否在唱歌，这让美国最知名的预测市场陷入了模糊地带。
Polymarket计划在周三做出最终决定，而Kalshi因未宣布结果而遭到批评——该平台称Cardi B在中场表演期间是否唱歌存在歧义。
Kalshi反而以暂停交易前的最后成交价结算了市场——向”否”方持有者每合约支付74美分，向”是”方持有者支付26美分——实际上进行了部分 payouts。
这一决定促使一位Kalshi用户向美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)提起投诉，该机构是监管预测市场的独立美国机构。
数百万用户投注超级碗中场秀
预测市场允许用户对未来事件结果下注，通常通过回应”是”或”否”的问题（称为事件合约）并投入一定金额。
超级碗前夕，Kalshi和Polymarket推出了关于Cardi B等艺人是否会表演的事件合约，分别创下4730万美元和1000万美元的交易量。
佩德罗·帕斯卡、Karol G和Cardi B在2026年2月8日于加利福尼亚州圣克拉拉的李维斯体育场举行的Apple Music超级碗LX中场秀上表演。凯文·马祖尔 摄
一些Polymarket用户在事件合约的评论区讨论了这场争议，有人声称自己被骗了。
“不可能把客串算作表演，”有人写道。另一位用户则认为”表演”并不一定只意味着唱歌。
Polymarket未立即回应置评请求。
Kalshi还因中场秀决定遭到部分用户反对。在向CFTC提交的投诉中，一位购买了”是”合约的用户表示，由于Kalshi决定按交易中间价结算市场，他们只收到1300美元而非5000美元。该用户要求3700美元的赔偿。
作为回应，一位用户向美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)提起投诉——这一消息首先由《Event Horizon》通讯报道并由Front Office Sports发布。购买了”是”合约的用户声称，由于Kalshi决定按交易中间价结算市场，他们获得了1300美元而非5000美元，因此寻求3700美元的赔偿。
CFTC未立即回应置评请求。
Kalshi发言人在给CBS新闻的电子邮件中表示：”规则很明确。根据完整规则，唱歌和跳舞都算作表演，但仅在后台跳舞不算。在广播的表演中，Cardi B在跳舞并对口型，但不确定她是否在’唱歌’。”
超级碗当天，Kalshi平台的日交易量创下10亿美元以上的历史新高，较去年增长2700%。
体育赛事投注已面临包括康涅狄格州在内的一些州的抵制，这些州认为提供”体育赛事合约”的平台是非法的。
然而，一些监管机构似乎正在转变立场。1月底，CFTC主席Michael Selig指示该机构撤回2024年试图禁止政治和体育相关合约的规则提案。Selig表示，该建议”造成了市场不确定性”。
Aimee Picchi编辑
美联社对本报道有贡献。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/details-on-the-making-of-bad-bunnys-super-bowl-halftime-show/
Cardi B’s Super Bowl halftime show cameo ignites a prediction market dispute
February 11, 2026 / 1:07 PM EST / CBS News
Cardi B’s appearance during Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show has stirred debate among prediction market users, raising questions about whether she actually “performed.”
Prediction markets users placed divergent bets on whether the rapper would perform at the halftime show, which the NFL says drew approximately 128 million viewers.
When Cardi B took the stage on Sunday, the Grammy winner danced alongside celebrities including Karol G, Young Miko, Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a pink porch set. But it was unclear if the artist was singing, creating a murky situation for the nation’s most prominent prediction markets.
Polymarket is scheduled to issue a final decision on Wednesday, while Kalshi is facing a backlash after choosing not to declare a winner, citing ambiguity in whether Cardi B sang during her halftime appearance.
Kalshi instead settled the market at the last traded price before it was paused — paying 74 cents per contract to “No” holders and 26 cents to “Yes” holders — effectively issuing partial payouts.
That decision prompted one Kalshi user to file a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the independent U.S. agency that regulates prediction markets.
Millions wagered on the halftime show
Prediction markets allow users to wager on the outcome of future events, typically by responding to “yes” or “no” questions — called event contracts — and putting down a buy-in amount.
Leading up to the Super Bowl, Kalshi and Polymarket hosted event contracts revolving around whether Cardi B, among other artists, would perform, which racked up $47.3 million and $10 million in trade volume, respectively.
Pedro Pascal, Karol G and Cardi B perform during the Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show at Levi’s Stadium on Feb. 8, 2026, in Santa Clara, California. Kevin Mazur
Some Polymarket users hashed out the debate in the comments section of the event contract, with some claiming they were scammed.
“There’s no way that you would count a cameo as a performance,” one person wrote. Another argued that a “performance” does not exclusively mean singing.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Kalshi also faced a backlash from some users over the halftime show. In the complaint with the CFTC, one user — who purchased a “yes” contract — said that as a result of Kalshi’s decision to settle the market price at the mid-trading value, they received $1,300 instead of $5,000. The user is seeking $3,700 in reparations.
In response, one user filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and posted by Front Office Sports. The user, who purchased a “yes” contract, claims that as a result of Kalshi’s decision to settle the market price at the mid-trading value, they received $1,300 instead of $5,000. The user is seeking $3,700 in compensation.
CFTC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
“The rules were clear. Under the full rules, singing and dancing counted as a performance, but just dancing in the background did not,” a Kalshi spokesperson said in an email to CBS News. “In the as-broadcast performance, Cardi B was dancing and mouthing words to the song, but it was unclear if she was ‘singing’.”
On the day of the Super Bowl, Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1 billion in trading across its site, up 2,700% from last year.
Wagering on sports events has faced some pushback from states including Connecticut, which is arguing that platforms offering “sports events contracts” are illegal.
Some regulators, however, appear to be shifting their stances. In late January, CFTC Chair Michael Selig directed the agency to withdraw a 2024 rule proposal that sought to prohibit political and sports-related contracts. Selig said the advisory “contributed to uncertainty in our markets.”
Edited by Aimee Picchi
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/details-on-the-making-of-bad-bunnys-super-bowl-halftime-show/
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