分析师指出，伊朗谈判代表或许并无真正实权，真正握有权力的是伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官，而特朗普已宣布协议作废
2026年7月8日 美国东部夏令时下午2:27 / 福克斯新闻网
作者：埃弗拉特·拉赫特 福克斯新闻
特朗普在北约峰会威胁将对伊朗发动更多打击
福克斯新闻高级战略分析师、退役将军杰克·基恩在《美国新闻室》节目中分析了美国最新对伊朗打击行动、霍尔木兹海峡的战略重要性，并拆解了乌克兰请求更多援助的相关情况。
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当地时间周三，随着特朗普总统对伊朗谈判代表的不满日益加剧，指责他们撒谎作弊，此次最新升级事件暴露出华盛顿面临的一个更根本问题：谈判桌上的官员是否有权达成协议——或者说德黑兰是否有任何人拥有这一权力。
“我不知道我们能否达成协议。我们或许根本不需要协议就能达成目标，”特朗普在安卡拉举行的北约峰会上表示，“这些人，他们撒谎又作弊。”
但特朗普对伊朗谈判代表的不满只是问题的一部分。自阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊去世以来，德黑兰方面谁有权达成并执行协议的情况愈发不明朗。
特朗普称伊朗袭击引发美军大规模反击后，停火协议“已终结”
德黑兰在社交媒体上开辟了新战线，包括开展影响力宣传活动以影响美国人、破坏唐纳德·特朗普总统推动核协议的努力。（哈米德·马利克普尔 / 中东图像社 / 法新社 via 盖蒂图片社）
莫塔巴·哈梅内伊在其父阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊于2月28日美以首轮袭击中身亡后继任最高领袖。但莫塔巴自袭击发生后从未公开露面，路透社援引美国评估报告称，权力已分散在高级革命卫队指挥官和有权势的文职官员手中。
伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫曾是伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官，他领导了伊朗的谈判代表团，现已成为该国最具影响力的在世政治人物之一。
班纳夫谢·赞德是一位伊朗裔美国记者，也是《伊朗如此遥远》Substack 通讯的编辑，她表示，自阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊去世以来，伊朗伊斯兰共和国的权力格局已经破裂，伊斯兰革命卫队已成为该国的主导力量。
“与美国谈判的人未必得到其他各方的认可，”赞德告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。
她将加利巴夫描述为多个权力中心之一，与伊斯兰革命卫队总司令艾哈迈德·瓦希迪、圣城旅指挥官伊斯梅尔·贾阿尼以及前外交部长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫等人物形成竞争。
瓦希迪掌控着伊斯兰革命卫队的整体军事架构，而贾阿尼则负责该组织的境外行动以及与伊朗在整个地区的盟友武装团体的关系。相比之下，扎里夫仍与此前倡导谈判和解除制裁的更温和政治阵营关系密切。
“强硬派在政治影响力方面也被边缘化了，”赞德说，“所以实际上掌权的就是伊斯兰革命卫队。而在伊斯兰革命卫队内部，签署协议的人未必代表所有人的意愿，他们只是代表自己签署。”
她的评估反映了华盛顿面临的核心问题：伊朗的谈判代表、政治机构和军事指挥官可能对已达成的协议有不同解读，或者执行协议的意愿也各不相同。
美军在霍尔木兹海峡遭遇新的商船袭击后，收回对伊朗的关键让步
伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫和外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉克奇于2026年4月11日抵达巴基斯坦拉瓦尔品第的努尔可汗空军基地，受到巴基斯坦外交部长伊shaq Dar和陆军参谋长陆军元帅阿西姆·穆尼尔的迎接。（巴基斯坦外交部/美联社）
不过，特朗普宣布协议终结并不一定意味着外交渠道被永久搁置。
国防民主基金会伊朗项目高级主任本·塔布卢告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，最明确的信号将是恢复美国封锁、增派更多军事力量或新一轮大规模经济制裁。
他表示，否则特朗普可能会继续在谈判和公开战争之间的“灰色地带”运作，同时保留所有选择。
更棘手的问题是，伊朗军方已严重受损，德黑兰方面为何还要冒着制裁解除和遭遇美军压倒性火力打击的风险进行升级行动。
本·塔布卢表示，伊朗领导人似乎认为升级行动对伊斯兰共和国的生存至关重要。
“这个政权现在更弱了，但仍具杀伤力；能力下降了，但却更自信了，”他说。他补充道，伊朗领导层认为其对手在整个海湾地区都存在易受攻击的经济和军事利益，而该政权本身更愿意承受破坏的代价。
“它们的生存、军事胜利和政治成功都需要更多——而非更少——的升级行动，”他说。
外交政策分析师、《外交桌》主编莉萨·达夫塔里也认同，此次升级是蓄意之举，目的是将地区不稳定转化为谈判筹码。
“通过袭击商船和阿拉伯国家，该政权在传递一个信号：它可以挟持全球能源运输和美国的地区伙伴，以此获取谈判筹码、转移国内危机的注意力，并试探美国的红线，”达夫塔里告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。
她表示，德黑兰方面赌定华盛顿及其阿拉伯伙伴不愿再打一场战争，最终会率先退让。
“该政权的核心武器是时间，”达夫塔里说，“通过在波斯湾升级局势、袭击船只和阿拉伯国家，他们正在制造一连串危机，提高对抗他们的成本，同时在国内巩固权力。”
达夫塔里认为，这一战略反映了伊朗伊斯兰共和国的长期特质，而非应对压力的临时反应。
特朗普迎来最后一次北约峰会，乌克兰问题与国防开支成焦点
消防员在伊朗无人机袭击后的现场开展工作，地点据称为巴林。（路透社）
“这个政权从来就不是为了被改革或软化而建立的，”她说，“他们现在向我们展示的正是他们打算维持的样子：一个强硬的革命政权，决心继续掌权。”
但要将这一战略转化为实际行动则更为复杂。德黑兰的权力似乎分散，这引发了一系列疑问：谁在指挥这场升级行动？与美国谈判的官员能否约束整个安全机构？
这种分歧在霍尔木兹海峡的争端中已显现出来。
一位了解相关情况的中东消息人士告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，德黑兰和华盛顿对备忘录第五条的解读截然不同。公开文本显示，伊朗将“尽最大努力”在60天内安排商船安全、免费通过海峡，同时移除军事和技术障碍并开展排雷行动。文本并未明确规定外国船只必须获得伊朗批准或使用伊朗指定的航线。
据该消息人士透露，伊朗将该条款解读为赋予其责任——因此也获得了权力——在过渡期间协调航运并确定船只通行路线。而美国的解读是，伊朗同意解除海上封锁，全面重新开放这条国际水道。
消息人士称，如果双方对仅一页纸的条款都有不同解读，那他们又打算如何拟定一份条约呢？
伊朗将控制霍尔木兹海峡通航视为其对美国、海湾国家和全球经济施加影响的最后主要筹码之一，消息人士说：“这才是问题的核心。”
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运送遇刺的伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊及其家人灵柩的车辆在送葬队伍中穿过哀悼者，前往伊朗德黑兰的阿扎迪塔，摄于2026年7月6日周一。（瓦希德·萨莱米/美联社）
综合来看，专家的评估表明，德黑兰不太可能在屈服于特朗普的压力和重返谈判之间做出简单选择。本·塔布卢表示，该政权认为其生存取决于“更多而非更少的升级行动”，而达夫塔里则称，该政权正故意通过制造一系列地区危机来“拖延时间”。这意味着，即便伊朗官员重返谈判桌，伊斯兰革命卫队仍可能继续袭击商船、美国利益及美国盟友，以保留谈判筹码并强化其在伊朗国内的地位。
埃弗拉特·拉赫特是福克斯新闻数字频道负责国际事务和联合国报道的记者。在X平台@efratlachter关注她。新闻线索请发送至efrat.lachter@fox.com。
Trump says ‘Iran lies and cheats’ as IRGC emerges as dominant force in negotiations with US
Analysts say IRGC commanders, not Iran’s negotiators, may hold real power as Trump declares the deal over
July 8, 2026 2:27pm EDT / Fox News
By Efrat Lachter Fox News
Trump threatens more strikes on Iran at NATO summit
Fox News senior strategic analyst retired Gen. Jack Keane analyzes the latest U.S. strikes on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz’s strategic importance and breaks down Ukraine’s request for more aid on ‘America’s Newsroom.’
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As President Donald Trump voiced growing frustration Wednesday with Iranian negotiators, accusing them of lying and cheating, the latest escalation has exposed an even more fundamental problem for Washington: whether the officials at the negotiating table have the power to deliver an agreement — or whether anyone in Tehran does.
“I don’t know if we’re going to have a deal. We may just do it without a deal,” Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara. “These people, they lie and they cheat.”
But Trump’s frustration with Iran’s negotiators is only part of the problem. Since the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it has become increasingly unclear who in Tehran has the authority to make — and enforce — an agreement.
TRUMP SAYS IRAN CEASEFIRE IS ‘OVER’ AFTER IRANIAN ATTACKS TRIGGER MASSIVE US RESPONSE
Tehran has deployed a new front on social media including an influence campaign to sway Americans and undermine President Donald Trump’s push for a nuclear deal.(Hamed Malekpour / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father as supreme leader after the elder Khamenei was killed in the opening U.S.-Israeli attacks on Feb. 28. But Mojtaba has not appeared publicly since the attack, and U.S. assessments cited by Reuters have described authority as dispersed among senior Revolutionary Guard commanders and powerful civilian officials.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander who led Iran’s negotiating delegation, has emerged as one of the country’s most powerful surviving political figures.
Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist and editor of the Iran So Far Away Substack, said power inside the Islamic Republic has fractured since the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leaving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as the country’s dominant force.
“The person who is negotiating with the U.S. is not necessarily someone who is endorsed by the others,” Zand told Fox News Digital.
She described Ghalibaf as one power center competing with figures including IRGC commander-in-chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
Vahidi controls the IRGC’s overall military structure, while Qaani oversees its external operations and relationships with Iran-aligned armed groups across the region. Zarif, by contrast, remains closely identified with the more accommodationist political camp that previously championed negotiations and sanctions relief.
“The hardliners, in terms of their political presence, have also been pushed aside,” Zand said. “So really, it’s the IRGC. And within the IRGC, whoever signs the deal is not necessarily signing on behalf of everybody else. They’re signing on behalf of themselves.”
Her assessment reflects a central problem facing Washington: Iran’s negotiators, political institutions and military commanders may not share the same interpretation of what was agreed — or the same willingness to implement it.
US CLAWS BACK KEY CONCESSION TO IRAN AFTER FRESH ATTACKS ON COMMERCIAL SHIPS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were greeted by Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Army Chief Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir upon their arrival at Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on April 11, 2026.(Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs/AP)
Yet Trump’s declaration does not necessarily mean diplomacy has been permanently abandoned.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that the clearest evidence would be the restoration of the U.S. blockade, the introduction of additional military forces or a new round of major economic sanctions.
Otherwise, he said, Trump may continue operating in the “gray zone” between negotiations and open war while keeping his options available.
The more difficult question is why Tehran would jeopardize sanctions relief and risk overwhelming American firepower when its military has already been severely degraded.
Ben Taleblu said Iran’s leaders appear to believe escalation is essential to the survival of the Islamic Republic.
“This is a regime that is weaker, but lethal, and less capable, but more confident,” he said. Iran’s leadership believes its adversaries have vulnerable economic and military interests throughout the Gulf, he added, while the regime itself is more willing to accept destruction.
People hold placards with an image of Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei with late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a gathering to support Mojtaba Khamenei, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026.(Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Via Reuters)
“Their survival and their military success and their political success runs through more, not less, escalation,” he said.
Lisa Daftari, foreign policy analyst and the editor-in-chief of The Foreign Desk, agrees the escalation is deliberate, aimed at turning regional instability into leverage.
“By targeting commercial shipping and Arab states, the regime is signaling that it can hold global energy flows and America’s regional partners hostage to extract leverage, distract from its domestic crisis, and test U.S. red lines,” Daftari told Fox News Digital.
She said Tehran is betting that Washington and its Arab partners will be unwilling to sustain another war and will ultimately back down first.
“The regime’s core weapon is time,” Daftari said. “By escalating in the Persian Gulf and attacking ships and Arab states, they are creating rolling crises that raise the cost of confronting them while they consolidate power at home.”
Daftari argued that the strategy reflects the Islamic Republic’s longstanding character rather than a temporary response to pressure.
TRUMP ENTERS FINAL NATO SUMMIT DAY AS UKRAINE, DEFENSE SPENDING TAKE CENTER STAGE
Firefighters work in the aftermath of Iranian drone attacks, at a location given as Bahrain(Reuters)
“This regime was never designed to be reformed or softened,” she said. “What they are showing us now is exactly who they intend to remain: a hardline, revolutionary regime determined to stay in power.”
But determining how that strategy is translated into action is more complicated. Authority in Tehran appears divided, raising questions about who is directing the escalation and whether the officials negotiating with Washington can commit the broader security establishment.
That division is already visible in the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.
A Middle Eastern source familiar with the issue told Fox News Digital that Tehran and Washington are operating from fundamentally different readings of Clause five of the memorandum. The publicly released text says Iran will use its “best efforts” to arrange safe commercial passage through the strait without charge for 60 days, while removing military and technical obstacles and conducting demining operations. It does not expressly state that foreign vessels must obtain Iran’s approval or use routes designated by Tehran.
According to the source, Iran interprets that language as giving it responsibility — and therefore authority — to coordinate shipping and determine the routes vessels use during the interim period. Washington’s interpretation is that Iran agreed to lift its maritime blockade and fully reopen the international waterway.
When the two sides have different interpretations of a single page, how do they intend to write a treaty, the source said.
Iran views control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz as one of its last major sources of leverage over the United States, Gulf governments and the global economy, the source said, “That is the heart of the matter.”
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The truck carrying the coffins of the slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and members of his family makes its way through mourners during the funeral procession toward Azadi Tower in Tehran, Iran, on Monday, July 6, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
Taken together, the experts’ assessments suggest Tehran is unlikely to face a simple choice between surrendering to Trump’s pressure and returning to negotiations. Ben Taleblu said the regime believes its survival depends on “more, not less, escalation,” while Daftari said it is deliberately “playing out the clock” by creating repeated regional crises. That raises the prospect that, even if Iranian officials return to the table, the IRGC could continue targeting commercial shipping, U.S. interests and American allies to preserve its leverage and strengthen its position inside Iran.
Efrat Lachter is a reporter for Fox News Digital covering international affairs and the United Nations. Follow her on X @efratlachter. Stories can be sent to efrat.lachter@fox.com.
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