2026-06-25T12:40:17.461Z / 路透社
由路透社报道
2026年6月25日 12:40 UTC 更新于1小时前
- 内容提要
- 路透社调查的经济学家此前预测5月年度PCE通胀率为4.1%
- 美联储上周维持基准利率不变
- 季度预测显示政策制定者预计今年将上调借贷成本
华盛顿，6月25日（路透社）——美国5月通胀进一步攀升，三年来首次突破4%，中东冲突推高能源价格，这可能促使美联储在今年加息。
美国商务部经济分析局周四表示，截至5月的12个月里，个人消费支出价格指数飙升4.1%，为2023年4月以来的最大涨幅，也是首次突破4%。4月的PCE通胀率未作修正，为3.8%。
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路透社调查的经济学家此前预测PCE通胀率将上涨4.1%。5月PCE价格指数环比上涨0.4%，4月涨幅同样为0.4%。
美国牵头的针对伊朗的战争推高了油价，带动汽油价格上涨。尽管近期在脆弱的停火协议下石油和汽油价格有所回落，但经济学家预计通胀将在一段时间内维持高位。
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬上周签署了一项初步和平协议，将重新开放因战争而冻结的石油和其他航运航道。
早在这场冲突爆发前，消费者就已经在为特朗普全面实施的进口关税导致的高物价发愁。
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生活成本上升给特朗普及其共和党带来了政治负担，他们正寻求在11月的中期选举中保留对国会的控制权，而民众对其经济治理的不满日益加剧。特朗普在2024年总统选举中获胜的部分原因是他承诺降低通胀。
剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，5月PCE价格指数同比上涨3.4%，4月涨幅为3.3%。所谓的核心PCE通胀率环比上涨0.3%，4月涨幅同样为0.3%。
美国央行以2%的通胀率为目标，关注PCE通胀指标。美联储上周将基准隔夜利率维持在3.50%-3.75%区间，但更新的季度预测显示，鉴于对通胀的担忧日益加剧，政策制定者预计今年将上调借贷成本。
金融市场预计最早9月就会加息，之后可能还会再次加息。整体和核心PCE通胀率上次低于2%还是在2021年初。
尽管通胀高企，但消费者仍维持了支出水平，这得益于今年更大额的退税以及股市反弹，这些因素缓解了油价上涨带来的部分压力。家庭还在动用储蓄，储蓄率有所下降。
占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出在5月跃升0.7%，4月涨幅为0.4%。尽管部分支出增长反映了价格上涨，但消费似乎有望在今年第一季度放缓后于本季度加快增长。
目前对第二季度国内生产总值的预估最高达到年化3.0%。但随着通胀超过工资涨幅，报税季结束，储蓄不断减少，经济学家预计家庭将在第三季度缩减支出。
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露西娅·穆蒂卡尼 报道；千住野宫 编辑
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US PCE inflation measure tops 4.0% in May; consumer spending strong
2026-06-25T12:40:17.461Z / Reuters
By Reuters
June 25, 2026 12:40 PM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
People shop at Zabar’s supermarket in New York City, U.S., November 26, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon
- Summary
- Economists polled by Reuters had forecast annual PCE inflation at 4.1% in May
- The Fed last week left its benchmark rate unchanged
- Quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year
WASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) – U.S. inflation increased further in May, breaking above 4.0% for the first time in three years as the Middle East conflict boosted energy prices, and potentially drawing the Federal Reserve closer to raising interest rates this year.
The personal consumption expenditures price index surged 4.1% in the 12 months through May, the largest increase and first reading above 4.0% since April 2023, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday. PCE inflation rose by an unrevised 3.8% in April.
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Economists polled by Reuters had forecast PCE inflation advancing 4.1%. The PCE price index climbed 0.4% month-on-month in May after increasing 0.4% in April.
The U.S.-led war against Iran has pushed up oil prices, driving gasoline prices higher. Though oil and gasoline prices have retreated in recent weeks amid a fragile ceasefire, economists expected inflation to remain elevated for a while.
President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian last week signed a preliminary peace deal that would reopen oil and other shipping lanes that were frozen by the war.
Consumers were before the conflict already struggling with higher prices stemming from Trump’s sweeping import tariffs.
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The higher cost of living is a political liability for Trump and his Republican Party, seeking to retain control of Congress in the midterm elections in November, amid mounting frustration over his stewardship of the economy. Trump won the 2024 presidential election in part because of his promise to lower inflation.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 3.4% year-on-year in May after rising 3.3% in April. The so-called core PCE inflation advanced 0.3% on a monthly basis after gaining 0.3% in April.
The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE inflation measures for its 2% target. The Fed last week kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year amid growing concerns about inflation.
Financial markets are betting a rate hike could come as soon as in September, with another increase likely afterwards. Both headline and core PCE inflation were last below 2% in early 2021.
Despite the high inflation, consumers have maintained their spending, thanks to larger tax refunds this year as well as a stock market rally, which have cushioned some of the pain at the pump. Households are also tapping into savings and saving less.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, jumped 0.7% in May after rising 0.4% in April. Though some of the rise in spending reflects higher prices, consumption appears on track to speed up this quarter after slowing in the January-March quarter.
Gross domestic product estimates for the second quarter are currently as high as a 3.0% annualized rate. But with inflation outpacing wage gains, the tax filing season behind and savings dwindling, economists expect households will dial back spending in the third quarter.
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Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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