2026-06-25T08:48:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
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更新时间：2026年6月25日 / 美国东部时间上午10:38 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
美国个人消费支出（PCE）指数——美联储首选的通胀衡量指标——5月同比涨幅达到4.1%，凸显了该行遏制物价上涨面临的挑战。
根据金融数据服务商路孚特FactSet的调查，该读数符合经济学家此前对PCE报告4.1%同比涨幅的预期。这一数据较4月3.8%的同比涨幅有所上升，为2023年4月以来的最高水平。
剔除波动较大的能源和食品价格的核心PCE指数上涨3.4%，略高于经济学家此前预测的3.3%。
伊朗局势引发的战争推高了石油和汽油价格，推高了通胀，导致美国司机支付的燃油成本达到三年来最高水平。
分析师指出，5月的PCE报告可能标志着此轮通胀飙升的峰值，因为6月原油价格有所回落，外界希望承载全球20%石油运输量的关键波斯湾水道霍尔木兹海峡即将重新开放。但能源成本的下降并未体现在最新的PCE数据中。
北亮资产管理公司（Northlight Asset Management）首席投资官克里斯·扎卡里亚利（Chris Zaccarelli）在一封电子邮件中表示：“我们预计，随着霍尔木兹海峡重新开放和油价下跌，通胀将开始回落，这可能会缓解美联储面临的部分压力。但如果要实现这一目标，下个月的数据需要低于当前水平。”
根据FactSet的数据，油价已暴跌至接近今年2月伊朗战争爆发时的水平。国际基准布伦特原油周四下跌34美分，跌幅0.5%，至每桶73.40美元，较近期每桶约114美元的峰值下跌了35%以上。
全国金融公司（Nationwide）首席经济学家凯西·博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）在一封电子邮件中表示：“我们估计整体通胀已见顶，并将在今年下半年呈下降趋势，前提是霍尔木兹海峡保持开放。”
经济学家指出，尽管上月物价上涨，但最新通胀数据显示，消费者在5月仍保持强劲支出。经通胀调整后的支出较4月增长0.3%。经通胀调整后的收入四个月来首次出现增长，涨幅为0.3%，这可能在未来几个月提振消费者支出。
“实际个人支出的增长速度与GDP的趋势增长率一致，”高频经济公司（High Frequency Economics）首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格（Carl Weinberg）在一份报告中表示。“这是好消息！”
博斯特扬西奇表示，今年更大额的退税和股市上涨可能帮助了美国家庭，“缓解了汽油价格上涨带来的负面拖累”。
对利率的影响
本月早些时候，美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）誓言要遏制通胀，在他首次主持的利率决策会议上表示，美联储决心将通胀率降至每年2%的目标。美联储在6月17日的会议上维持基准利率不变，但为今年晚些时候加息敞开了大门。
汽油价格上涨并非推高通胀的唯一因素。人工智能产业的扩张推高了计算机组件成本，苹果公司上周宣布，由于成本上升，将提高电脑和iPad的售价。
上月服务业价格也大幅上涨，受餐饮、酒店客房、汽车维修和医疗保健成本上升推动。
周四发布的另一项政府报告显示，美国经济第一季度同比增长率达到2.1%，较此前预估的1.6%有所上调。同时，上周申请失业救济的人数有所下降，表明裁员率仍然较低。
经济学家周四表示，GDP增长强劲且能源价格回落的组合效应，可能会让美联储在短期内不会调整利率。
摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席经济策略师艾伦·曾特纳（Ellen Zentner）在一封电子邮件中表示：“今日的数据提醒我们，通胀仍远高于目标水平，经济增长依然稳健。”“这将让美联储在相当长一段时间内维持利率不变，直到条件允许降息。”
阿兰·谢特（Alain Sherter）编辑
美联社对本文亦有贡献。
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows prices rising at fastest pace in 3 years
2026-06-25T08:48:00-0400 / CBS News
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Updated on: June 25, 2026 / 10:38 AM EDT / CBS News
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — rose at a 4.1% annual rate in May, highlighting the central bank’s challenge in reining in prices.
The reading matched economists’ forecasts for the PCE report to come in at 4.1% annually, according to financial data service FactSet. That compares with an annual increase of 3.8% in April, and represents the highest level since April 2023.
Core PCE, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, rose 3.4%, slightly higher than the 3.3% forecast by economists.
The Iran war reignited inflation by driving up oil and gasoline prices, leaving American drivers paying the highest fuel costs in three years.
May’s PCE report could mark the peak of the latest inflation surge because crude oil prices eased in June amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz, the key Persian Gulf waterway that handles 20% of global oil flows, could soon reopen. That drop in energy costs isn’t reflected in the latest PCE data, analysts noted.
“It’s our expectation that inflation will start going lower now that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened and oil prices are coming down, so that may alleviate some of the pressure on the Fed, but next month’s data needs to be lower than what we are seeing today if that is going to be the case,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, in an email.
Oil prices have plunged close to their levels when the Iran war started in February, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, dipping 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $73.40 a barrel on Thursday, down more than 35% from its most recent peak of about $114 a barrel, according to FactSet.
“We estimate headline inflation has peaked and will trend lower in the second half of the year, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains open,” Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic said in an email.
Despite the jump in prices last month, the latest inflation data shows consumers continued to spend strongly in May, economists noted. Adjusted for inflation, spending rose 0.3% from April to May. Inflation-adjusted incomes rose for the first time in four months, picking up 0.3%, which could bolster consumer spending in the coming months.
“Real personal spending is rising at a pace consistent with the trend growth rate of GDP,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said in a report. “That is good news!”
Households were likely helped by this year’s larger tax refunds and by stock market gains, which “helped buffer the negative drag from higher gasoline prices,” Bostjancic said.
Impact on interest rates
Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh vowed to tackle inflation, saying at his first interest-rate decision meeting that the central bank is determined to lower inflation to 2% annually. The Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady at its June 17 meeting, but left the door open to a rate hike later this year.
Higher gas prices aren’t the only factor fueling inflation. The AI buildout has made computer components more expensive, with Apple announcing last week that it would raise prices on its computers and iPads due to higher costs.
Service prices also rose sharply last month, driven by costlier restaurant meals, hotel rooms, auto repairs and healthcare.
A separate government report on Thursday showed that the economy expanded at a 2.1% annual rate in the first three months of the year, an upgrade from a previous estimate of 1.6%. And the number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign that layoffs remain low.
The combination of stronger GDP growth and lower energy prices may keep the Fed from budging interest rates anytime soon, economists said Thursday.
“Today’s data is a reminder that inflation remains well above target and growth remains solid,” Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in an email. This will keep the Fed on hold for quite some time, until conditions allow for a cut.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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