2026-06-23T09:00:00.000Z / 《华盛顿邮报》
本报分析发现，参选初选的候选人最终胜出的概率，与赌徒们的预期大致相符。
美国东部时间今日凌晨5:00
作者：杰里米·B·梅里尔、莱斯利·夏皮罗、玛丽安娜·阿尔法罗
在洛杉矶市长初选首轮投票前数日，卡尔希（Kalshi）和多元市场（Polymarket）均给出真人秀明星斯宾塞·普拉特有75%的概率晋级大选的预测。
卡尔希发布了关于其当选概率的竞选风格更新动态，多元市场则开设了多个活跃市场，押注普拉特能否在该市无党派排序复选制初选中获得第一或第二名。仅在卡尔希平台上，市长竞选相关的投注总额就在投票结束前突破了4000万美元。
Why prediction markets’ election picks are useful, even when they seem wrong
2026-06-23T09:00:00.000Z / The Washington Post
A Post analysis found that primary candidates ended up winning about as often as bettors thought they would.
Today at 5:00 a.m. EDT
By Jeremy B. Merrill, Leslie Shapiro and Mariana Alfaro
A few days before the first round of Los Angeles’s mayoral primary, Kalshi and Polymarket gave reality TV star Spencer Pratt a 75 percent chance of advancing to the general election.
Kalshi published campaign-style updates on his odds, and Polymarket hosted multiple active markets on whether Pratt would finish first or second in the city’s nonpartisan, ranked-choice primary. On Kalshi alone, the mayoral race market surpassed $40 million in bets before voting ended.
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