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文字实录:加里·科恩做客《玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目,2026年6月14日

2026-06-14T13:06:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻

以下是加里·科恩的访谈实录,他曾在特朗普总统第一任期内担任国家经济委员会主任,现任IBM副董事长,该访谈于2026年6月14日在《玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目中播出。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 我们现在邀请到了加里·科恩,他曾是特朗普总统第一任期内的首席经济顾问。他目前担任IBM副董事长。很高兴您再次做客节目。

加里·科恩: 感谢邀请。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 那么,海牙国务卿表示没有明确给出具体时间。他说霍尔木兹海峡会立即开放,但可能需要长达30天的时间。对美国经济而言,最关键的是经济将受到油气价格走势的影响。美国消费者是否应该预期食品、汽油等所有商品的价格会大幅下跌?

加里·科恩: 价格不会在一夜之间暴跌。我们需要观察海峡内的实际情况。目前尚不清楚他们能多快完成通航。但随着海峡恢复通行,我们将开始看到市场心态的转变。人们会开始认为价格会下跌,并且价格会持续走低。当价格处于上涨环境时,人们往往会提前加满油箱,因为他们认为下周价格会更高;而当人们预期价格会下跌时,他们会尽量把油箱里的油用完,因为他们觉得等得越久,汽油就会越便宜。因此,当海峡开放后,我们将经历一场心态转变,随着石油开始外运,我们将开始看到一些影响。实际上我们已经看到了一些影响,你知道,我们的——汽油价格——我不会说已经降了很多,但已经比近期高点下跌了10%。如果海峡开放,我认为我们将继续看到汽油价格下跌。但正如你也指出的,这不仅仅是汽油价格的问题,还有食品价格,能源价格会波及整个经济,影响制造业、运输业,以及我们日常消费的所有商品。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 你刚才谈到的价格,指的是市场价格,但对于消费者来说,如果企业已经大幅提高了食品价格,他们真的会把价格降回来吗?

加里·科恩: 嗯,能源价格会回落,因此能源相关成本会下降。至于商店里的食品价格是否会回落,你知道,这需要一些时间。总会存在一些压力,需要有先行者发挥带头作用。我们已经看到价格上涨,而如果有商家希望吸引更多客流,他们往往会下调刚需商品的价格,然后消费者会说,嘿,这种刚需商品在这家商店更便宜。我之后就会去那家店,而其他需要竞争的商店也会跟着降价,因此开放市场会随着时间的推移推动价格下降。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 正如沃纳参议员所谈到的,商业燃料库存将于7月达到一些危险水平,这可能引发第二轮价格周期。高盛曾表示,由于当前经济面临的各种压力带来了新的安全溢价,油价将比战前每桶高出10美元。你认为美联储真的能实现特朗普总统公开表示希望看到的那种降息吗?

加里·科恩: 玛格丽特,我们已经耗尽了全球大量的石油供应,所有主要经济体都持有超额储备,但这些储备目前处于相对较低的水平。因此,我理解大家的担忧。所以,现在恢复石油供应对于美联储来说至关重要。听着,我们迎来了新的美联储主席凯文·沃什。我认为凯文完全清楚我们当前的经济处境。他明白我们正处于三年来最高的通胀水平。他也清楚就业市场相对——相对来说,是的,相对强劲,他还明白外界要求他降息的压力。我认为凯文会摆脱政治压力,做出符合经济规律的正确决策。凯文,你知道,这不是他第一次在美联储工作,他之前就曾担任美联储理事。我认为凯文会以一名非常传统的美联储理事的方式行事。他会严格专注于货币政策领域。我认为他会避开美联储近期陷入的一些次要问题,而且我认为他会根据自己在经济中实际观察到的情况采取行动,而不是根据自己希望看到的情况。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 他还明确表示,我们评判经济的方式可能需要改变,需要以不同的视角看待数据。说到这一点,我们上周看到的SpaceX的表现相当惊人。埃隆·马斯克是首位身价达万亿的富豪。SpaceX制造火箭。他们计划在太空部署AI数据中心,还想开采小行星。这听起来简直像是电影里的情节,但本周这家公司完成了有史以来规模最大的首次公开募股。我们还将看到更多AI公司上市。我们正处于繁荣周期的哪个阶段?

加里·科恩: 所以,玛格丽特,现在是值得庆祝的时候。我们应该为美国的企业家精神感到自豪,为美国的工程能力感到自豪,为我们正在解决世界上一些最重大的问题而感到自豪。如果美国不去解决这些问题,而中国去解决,那么我们要么会远远落后于他们,要么就得付钱让他们为我们提供解决方案,如果他们愿意卖给我们的话。因此,我将此视为对美国企业家精神的一次盛大庆祝。正如你所说,这不会止步于SpaceX。SpaceX现在已经是一家有25年历史的公司,就连埃隆·马斯克本人都曾说过,这家公司只有10%的存活概率。现在我们有了一批类似规模的公司,它们正在改变我们每个人的生活方式,以及我们未来的生活方式。这些都是美国本土的公司、美国的企业家、美国的技术和美国的工程师。我们应该庆幸这些公司扎根国内,而不需要我们费尽心思将它们吸引到美国来。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 这场变革给美国工人带来的影响是好是坏,一直存在广泛的争论。正如你所知,立场偏保守的《华尔街日报》社论委员会称赞SpaceX为工薪阶层社区创造了就业机会,并表示他们向员工发放了股票期权,因此蓝领工人 arguably 成了百万富翁,对吗?但通过这样的方式,这——显然,这是一个特殊案例。但这对蓝领工人的影响究竟是什么?

加里·科恩: 所以,你谈到的是AI领域的——

玛格丽特·布伦南: 泛指AI。

加里·科恩: 那么,你看,如今在经济领域、商业领域都存在一场大规模的争论,这场争论是:这次是否与众不同,或者这次和以往一样?我属于“这次和以往一样”的阵营,我的意思是,如果你回顾我们经历过的所有重大技术进步,在我们直播之前,我们都读到过类似“这将是人类就业的终结”的报道。回顾轧棉机、内燃机、电话、手机或互联网,所有这些技术发明都曾被认为会摧毁人力资本。我认为历史告诉我们,它们并不会摧毁人力资本。实际发生的情况是,随着国家国内生产总值(GDP)的增长,我们创造的就业机会越来越多。我认为现在的情况也是如此。还有另一个同样重要的现象。美国历史上最大的公司一直都是轻资产公司,它们高度依赖知识产权。如今美国的最大公司正逐渐成为资产密集型公司和知识密集型公司的结合体。而这些资产需要由人来建造。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 加里·科恩,很高兴听到你的见解。一如既往,我们很快回来。

Transcript: Gary Cohn on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” June 14, 2026

2026-06-14T13:06:00-0400 / CBS News

The following is the transcript of the interview with Gary Cohn, IBM vice chairman and director of the National Economic Council during President Trump’s first term, that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on June 14, 2026.

MARGARET BRENNAN: We’re joined now by Gary Cohn, who is the top economic adviser to President Trump in his first term. He is currently Vice Chairman at IBM. Good to have you back here.

GARY COHN: Thanks for having me.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So, Secretary Hague says didn’t give a lot of clarity on the exact time. He said both the Strait of Hormuz would be immediately open, but that it could take up to 30 days. The bottom line for the economy here, it’s going to be impacted by what happens with oil and gas prices. Should American consumers expect that the prices they’re paying for their food and their gas and everything else is going to fall like a rock?

GARY COHN: It’s not going to fall like a rock overnight. We’re going to have to see exactly what happens in the straits. It was not clear how quickly they’ll open. But as they do open, we will start getting a change in psychology. People will start thinking that prices are going down, and they will continue to go down. When you’re in an upward price environment, people tend to fill their tanks up early because they think the price is going to be higher next week, and they tend to not let their tanks go down when you’re in an environment when you think the price is going to get cheaper, people tend to drive their cars till they’re almost empty, because they think the longer I wait, the cheaper gas will be. So we’re going to be in a psychological change when the straits open, and as oil starts flowing out, we will start to see some impact. We’ve actually already seen some impact, you know we’re—gas prices are—I won’t say well, but they’re 10% off their recent highs, and if we open the straits, I think we’ll continue to see these gas prices come down. But, as you also point out, it’s not just the price of gasoline, it’s the price of groceries, the price of energy feeds through the entire economy, it feeds through manufacturing, it feeds through delivery, it feeds through everything we consume as daily consumers.

MARGARET BRENNAN: And what you’re talking about, prices, you’re talking about the price at market, but for the price for consumers, if companies have already jacked up the price of food, are they really going to bring it back down?

GARY COHN: Well, they will bring it back, the price of energy will come back down, so the energy component will come back down, whether actual food at the store will come back down, you know, it will take some time. There’s always, there’s always some pressure, and it takes a first mover to show some leadership, you know. We’ve seen prices go up, and then if someone wants to bring more and more retail traffic into their store, they tend to cut the price of a necessity good, and you, as a consumer, say, Hey, that necessity good is cheaper at that store. I then go into that store, and the other store that needs to match their price, so the open market will drive prices down over time.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Because, as Senator Warner was talking about, those fuel inventories, commercial fuel inventories, they’re hitting some risky levels in July that could cause a secondary price cycle. Goldman Sachs said, what, $10 higher per barrel than before the war, because there’s this new security premium built in here, given all the forces you are seeing in the economy right now. Do you think the Federal Reserve can really do the kind of rate cut that President Trump very publicly says is he wants to see?

GARY COHN: Margaret, we have exhausted a lot of the global supply of oil, all the major economies do carry an excess reserve, and those excess reserves are at relatively low levels. So, I understand what everyone’s concerned about. So, getting oil back online now is important when it comes to the Federal Reserve. Look, we have a new Federal Reserve chairperson, Kevin Warsh. I think Kevin is completely acknowledging where we are in the economy. He understands that we’ve got inflation at three year highs. He also understands that the job market is relative, relatively, yes, relatively strong, and he also understands there’s pressure on him to lower interest rates. I think Kevin will remove himself from the political pressure, and he will do the right thing economically. Kevin is, you know, this is not his first time in the Federal Reserve, he was a Fed governor before. I think Kevin will approach this as a very traditional Fed governor. He will stay heavily involved in his lane in monetary policy. I think he will stay outside of the secondary issues that the Fed has gotten in more recently, and I think he will also be in a position where he will move based on what he is actually seeing in the economy, not what he hopes he sees in the economy.

MARGARET BRENNAN: He’s also made clear he thinks sort of how we judge the economy may need to change and look at data differently. To that point, what we saw this past week with SpaceX was pretty incredible. Elon Musk is the first trillionaire with a T. SpaceX, they make rocket ships. They want to put AI data centers in space. They want to mine asteroids. I mean, it sounds like it’s straight out of the movies, but this was a huge publicly traded debut this week, the largest ever. We’re going to see more AI companies also go public. Where are we in the boom?

GARY COHN: So, Margaret, this is a time to celebrate. We should celebrate America’s entrepreneurial spirit. We should celebrate America’s engineering capabilities. We should celebrate the fact that we are solving some of the biggest problems in the world, and if we in America were not solving these problems, and the Chinese were, we would a be way behind them or be. Paying them to solve our problems, if they were willing to sell us a solution. So, I look at this as a massive celebration in American entrepreneurial spirit. As you said, it isn’t stopping the SpaceX, and SpaceX is now about a 25 year old company, one where Elon Musk himself said there’s a 10% chance this company even survives. We now have a handful of companies, almost of that size, that are changing the way you and I live our lives, and how we’re going to change our lives going forward. And these are American-based companies, American entrepreneurs, American technology, and American engineers. We should be lucky that we have these companies here domestically, and we’re not having to entice them into the United States.

MARGARET BRENNAN: What they’re facilitating with this transformation, there’s this whole debate about whether it’s good or bad for American workers. The Wall Street Journal editorial board, conservative leaning, as you know, was extolling the benefit of SpaceX, creating jobs for working-class communities, and said they gave stock options to their workers, so they made blue-collar workers arguably millionaires, right? But by doing something like that, is that.. I mean, this is a special case, clearly. But what is the impact on blue-collar workers?

GARY COHN: So, you’re talking about AI in—

MARGARET BRENNAN: AI generally.

GARY COHN: So, look, there’s a large debate going on in the economy today, in business today, and the debate is, is this time different or is this time the same? I’m in the camp that this time is the same, and what I mean by that is, if you look back at all of the major technological advancements that we have lived through, and before we were live, we read stories about how this was the end of employment. If you go back to the cotton gin, or the internal combustion engine, or the telephone, or the cell phone or the internet, all of these technological inventions were supposed to be the demise of human capital. I think what we have found in the history is they’re not the demise of human capital. What happens is the gross domestic product, the GDP of the country grows as it grows, we create more and more jobs, and I think that’s what’s going on here, there’s another phenomenon that’s equally as important here. The largest companies in America historically have been asset-light companies, and they’ve been intellectual property heavy. The largest companies in America today are becoming a combination of asset-based companies and intellectual companies. The assets need to be built by people.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Gary Cohn, good to have your insights. As always, we’ll be right back.

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