2026年5月21日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
仅三成选民认可国会民主党人和共和党人的工作表现
——维多利亚·巴拉拉 福克斯新闻
伊尔汉·奥马尔称自己不知晓欺诈行为是“美国历史上最大的谎言”：尼克·雪莉
独立记者尼克·雪莉在《威尔·凯恩秀》中谈论明尼苏达州众议员、明尼苏达州民主党人伊尔汉·奥马尔否认涉嫌福利欺诈一事。
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随着联邦当局持续打击福利欺诈，最新的福克斯新闻民调显示，选民担忧福利项目被滥用，但同时也希望保护合法受助者的福利获取渠道。
此次民调是在司法部周四宣布对正在调查中的明尼苏达州福利欺诈案起诉15名被告之前开展的，这是全美范围内多起福利滥用调查案件之一。
多数登记选民（71%）认为，政府福利和社会服务项目中的欺诈行为极为普遍或非常普遍，近半数（45%）受访者认为这类欺诈行为在过去两年有所增加。仅19%的人认为欺诈行为有所减少，35%的人认为保持不变。
福克斯新闻民调：30%认为特朗普近期遇刺未遂事件是自导自演
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但当在执法与福利获取之间权衡时，选民优先考虑符合资格的受助者：56%的人表示，即便存在一些欺诈行为，确保符合资格的人群获得福利应是更高优先级；43%的人则优先考虑预防欺诈，即便这会导致部分符合资格的人群无法领取福利。
“数据体现了民粹主义候选人凭直觉就能理解的道理，”协助福克斯新闻民调的共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党合作伙伴克里斯·安德森共同开展民调工作。“选民认为政府中腐败和无能现象猖獗，而明尼阿波利斯和加州的项目欺诈故事强化了这一观念。表达这类信念能获得公众认可。但政策层面的影响却更为棘手：你是否会冒着限制真正弱势群体援助的风险，确保纳税人的钱不被浪费？”
选民在谁该为欺诈承担更多责任的问题上存在分歧：是谎报资格的个人，还是谎报成本的组织和承包商（两者均为50%）。
福克斯新闻民调：随着经济困境加剧，民众对特朗普的支持率再创新低
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在预防欺诈方面，更多选民信任州政府（60%的受访者表示非常有信心或有一定信心），而非联邦政府（51%）。
两党在福利欺诈存在的问题上存在显著共识。民主党、共和党和无党派人士在不同程度上都认同福利欺诈普遍存在，且近年来有所增加。但除此之外，党派分歧变得更加明显。
多数民主党人更倾向于指责组织和承包商应为欺诈行为负责，并优先确保符合资格的人群领取福利。相比之下，共和党人更有可能指责谎报资格的个人，并支持更严厉的欺诈防控措施。
无党派选民在个人还是承包商应更多为欺诈负责的问题上存在分歧（各占50%），但更多人优先考虑福利获取渠道（57%）而非欺诈预防（43%）。
对州政府的信任跨越党派界限，民主党人（65%）、无党派人士（59%）和共和党人（56%）中的多数都信任本州政府预防欺诈的能力。
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对联邦政府的看法则更加两极分化。近三分之二的共和党人（63%）对联邦政府打击欺诈的能力表示有信心，而民主党人为42%，无党派人士为47%。
国会支持率
仅三成选民认可国会民主党人（30%）和共和党人（31%）的工作表现。
对国会民主党人的支持率较2月上升1个百分点（29%，此前为历史最低支持率）。对国会共和党人的支持率下降了5个百分点（从36%降至当前水平），其中很大一部分原因是共和党选民自身的支持率下降了10个百分点。
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尽管如此，共和党人对本国议员的支持率（67%）仍高于民主党人（58%）。
“选民对民主党议员的负面看法是影响中期选举的最有趣也最重要的因素之一，”肖说道。“对共和党人的负面评价在意料之中；在公众情绪低迷之际，他们掌握着政权。但要利用这一点，民主党必须让选民相信他们或许能做得更好。”
选区重划
六成选民对2026年中期选举前的选区重划感到极为或非常担忧。
民主党人比共和党人更担忧（71% vs. 51%），认为“极为担忧”的民主党人数量是共和党人的两倍多（39%的民主党人 vs. 15%的共和党人）。无党派选民存在分歧，50%的人表示担忧，49%的人不担忧，其中22%的人表示极为担忧。
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最高法院
选民还被问及对增加美国最高法院大法官数量的看法，45%的人支持该想法，55%的人反对。支持率与2022年持平，较2021年35%的低点有所上升。总体而言，选民普遍反对法院扩容。
超过半数的民主党人（55%）支持扩大最高法院规模，而多数无党派人士（56%）和共和党人（64%）反对该举措。
此次民调于2026年5月15日至18日开展，由灯塔研究公司（民主党）和肖氏研究公司（共和党）主导，从全国选民档案中随机抽取1002名登记选民进行访谈。受访者通过固定电话（109人）、手机（635人）完成访谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（258人）。基于全样本的抽样误差为±3个百分点。针对子群体的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。通常会对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保人口统计数据能够代表登记选民群体。权重目标的制定依据包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。
Fox News Poll: Voters see welfare fraud as common, still mostly favor protecting benefits over crackdowns
May 21, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
Just 3 in 10 voters approve of the job Congressional Democrats and Republicans are doing
By Victoria Balara, Fox News
For Ilhan Omar to say she didn’t know about fraud is the ‘biggest lie in American history’: Nick Shirley
Independent journalist Nick Shirley discusses Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., denying knowledge of alleged fraud in Minnesota on ‘The Will Cain Show.’
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As federal authorities continue to crack down on welfare fraud, the latest Fox News survey finds voters are concerned about program abuse, but still also want to protect access for legitimate recipients.
The survey was conducted before the Department of Justice announced charges against 15 defendants on Thursday in the ongoing Minnesota welfare fraud investigations, one of multiple inquiries into welfare abuse across the country.
A majority of registered voters, 71%, believe fraud in government welfare and social service programs is extremely or very common, and nearly half, 45%, think it has increased over the past two years. Just 19% say decreased and 35% believe it has stayed the same.
FOX NEWS POLL: 30% THINK RECENT TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT WAS STAGED
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Yet when weighing enforcement against access, voters prioritize eligible recipients: 56% say ensuring benefits for eligible people should be the higher priority, even if some fraud occurs, while 43% prioritize fraud prevention, even if some eligible people lose benefits.
“The data demonstrates what populist candidates understand intuitively,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll with Democratic partner Chris Anderson. “Voters think corruption and incompetence are rampant in government, and stories of program fraud from Minneapolis and California reinforce this notion. And articulating this belief plays well with the public. The policy implications are trickier: do you risk restricting aid to the truly vulnerable to ensure taxpayers aren’t being ripped off?”
Voters are split on who bears more responsibility for fraud: individuals misrepresenting eligibility or organizations and contractors misrepresenting costs (50% each).
FOX NEWS POLL: AS ECONOMIC PAIN DEEPENS, DISAPPROVAL OF TRUMP HITS NEW HIGH
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On fraud prevention, more voters trust their state governments (60% a great deal or some confidence) than the federal government (51%).
There is notable bipartisan consensus on the existence of welfare fraud. To varying degrees, Democrats, Republicans, and independents agree fraud is common, and it has increased in recent years. But beyond that, partisan divisions become much sharper.
Majorities of Democrats are more likely to blame organizations and contractors for fraud and to prioritize ensuring eligible people receive benefits. By contrast, Republicans are more likely to blame individuals who misrepresent eligibility and favor stronger fraud prevention measures.
Independents are split on whether individuals or contractors are more responsible for fraud (50% each) but more prioritize access to benefits (57%) than fraud prevention (43%).
Confidence in state governments cuts across party lines, with majorities of Democrats (65%), independents (59%), and Republicans (56%) trusting their state to prevent fraud.
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Views of the federal government are more polarized. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans (63%) express confidence in the federal government’s ability to combat fraud, compared to 42% of Democrats and 47% of independents.
Congressional Approval
Only 3 in 10 voters approve of the job Congressional Democrats (30%) and Republicans (31%) are doing.
Approval for Congressional Democrats is up 1 point since February (29%, a record low approval). Support for Congressional Republicans has fallen 5 points (36%), and much of that comes from a 10-point drop among Republican voters themselves.
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Still, more Republicans approve of their lawmakers (67%) than Democrats do theirs (58%).
“Voters’ unfavorable views of Democratic lawmakers is one of the most fascinating and important factors affecting the midterms,” says Shaw. “Negative assessments of the Republicans are expected; they hold power at a time when the public mood is sour. But to capitalize on this, the Democrats must convince voters they might actually do better.”
Redistricting
Six in 10 voters are extremely or very concerned about redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms.
More Democrats than Republicans are concerned (71% vs. 51%) and more than twice as many Democrats say they are extremely concerned (39% D vs. 15% R). Independents are split, with 50% concerned and 49% not concerned, including 22% extremely concerned.
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The Supreme Court
Voters were also asked how they feel about increasing the number of justices on the U.S. Supreme Court and 45% favor the idea while 55% oppose it. Support is unchanged from 2022 and up from a 35% low in 2021. Overall, voters have generally opposed packing the court.
More than half of Democrats (55%) favor expanding the high court, while majorities of independents (56%) and Republicans oppose it (64%).
Conducted May 15-18, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,002 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (109) and cellphones (635) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (258). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
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