2026-05-21T16:19:00.894Z / 路透社
- 内容摘要
- 最新美联储会议纪要显示,职员和部分官员对市场风险感到担忧
- 纪要显示部分美联储官员还希望对流动性工具进行新调整
- 市场焦虑之际,凯文·沃什即将执掌美联储
路透社纽约5月21日电 —— 当凯文·沃什执掌美联储之时,他接手的将是这样一个局面:部分央行官员和职员对金融市场状况及其给经济带来的风险愈发感到焦虑。
美联储4月底联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要显示,职员和多名政策制定者都对金融状况表现出一定焦虑,他们正在思考如何进一步完善美联储已有的大规模工具组合,以应对市场困境。
《本周观点》新闻简报将为您带来路透社全球金融评论团队的洞见与思路。点击此处订阅
尽管中东战争令经济前景蒙上阴影,股市仍实现了强劲上涨,许多人难以将这一走势与经济基本面相匹配。全球债券市场的收益率大幅攀升,投资者对通胀和政府融资前景感到担忧。此外,人们对人工智能投资的债务融资方式也愈发担忧,一旦出现问题,这将加大市场陷入困境的风险。
这场在美联储4月28日至29日会议上展开的讨论,是在央行即将迎来领导层更迭的背景下进行的:沃什将于周五宣誓就任美联储主席,接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔,鲍威尔将在一段时间内继续担任美联储理事。
沃什上任之际,恰好是他对美联储近年来部分核心举措提出批评之时,例如将激进的资产购买作为工具,在市场承压时期安抚市场,并增强短期利率目标的刺激效果。
沃什还倾向于在货币政策之外的领域加强与财政部的协调,这暗示美联储在使用各类流动性工具应对金融压力方面可能会出现调整。
一些人担心,美联储在危机时期出手干预的意愿会降低,而沃什期望缩小美联储资产负债表的计划路径,实际上可能会增加金融体系的风险。
显著脆弱点
在会议纪要中,美联储职员“整体上仍认为金融体系的脆弱性较为显著。职员判断资产估值压力处于高位”。美联储职员对家庭资产负债表状况相对乐观,但对借贷情况感到担忧,尤其是在政府债券市场活跃的对冲基金的借贷行为。
与此同时,未具名的美联储政策制定者也至少认同部分上述评估。
“多名与会者指出,资产估值仍处于高位,这种状况加大了一旦出现不利事态就可能引发大幅回调的可能性”,而“许多”官员提到,鉴于私人信贷市场的不透明性,他们对该市场感到担忧。
纪要显示,部分美联储官员讨论了与央行使用的各类流动性工具相关的“正在进行和潜在的运营改进”,其中包括贴现窗口工具、常备回购操作以及向其他主要央行提供美元的安排。
纪要在提到官员们投票确认当前的货币互换额度时表示,“少数”美联储官员希望将该安排延长至今年之后,称“更长时间的延期将有利于金融稳定”。
一段时间以来,美联储一直在推动更多吸收存款的银行做好使用贴现窗口贷款工具的准备。贴现窗口是美联储长期以来用于向银行提供快速信贷的工具,但常常被贴上污名化标签。
美联储还一直在调整其回购操作的各类安排,该操作向符合条件的金融机构发放现金。美联储一直在鼓励符合条件的机构在需要时使用贴现窗口,这一指导方针同样适用于回购操作,而在日历节点引发的市场流动性挑战期间,回购操作的需求往往会上升。
美联储的流动性工具旨在在市场承压时期稳定市场,并确保美联储能够牢牢控制其利率目标。近年来,在新冠疫情和2023年春季银行业危机期间,这些工具和政策策略的不同版本都得到了显著的实践检验。
尽管美联储为其工具组合进行了辩护——纽约联储系统公开市场账户经理罗伯托·佩利周二表示,当前的体系“显然非常有效”——但也有人批评整个机制,而沃什在这一问题上的立场尚不明确。
许多观察人士和现任央行官员认为,美联储各类工具之间的联动关系有助于维系短期利率,要逐步拆解这些联动关系难度极大,而恢复到近20年前金融危机爆发前美联储使用的体系将极具挑战性,且需要耗费很长时间才能完成。
迈克尔·S·德比 报道;千住野山 编辑
Some Fed officials and staff are fretting about state of financial markets
2026-05-21T16:19:00.894Z / reuters.com
- Summary
- Latest Fed meeting minutes show staff and some officials worried about market risks
- Minutes show some Fed officials also want fresh tweaks to liquidity tools
- Market anxiety comes as Kevin Warsh nears control of Fed
NEW YORK, May 21 (Reuters) – When Kevin Warsh takes command of the Federal Reserve, he will do so as some central bank officials and staff have become increasingly anxious about the state of the financial markets and the risk that presents to the economy.
Meeting minutes for the central bank’s late-April Federal Open Market Committee showed that staff as well as a number of policy makers are showing some anxiety about the state of finances, as they wonder how they can shore up the already expansive suite of tools the Fed has in place to deal with market woes.
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Even as the war in the Middle East has darkened the outlook, stock markets have booked strong gains that many struggle to square with economic fundamentals. Bond markets around the world have seen big rises in yields as investors fret about inflation and the government financing outlook. There’s also increasing concern about how artificial intelligence investment is financed by debt, which increases the risk of market trouble should problems arise.
That conversation, which transpired at the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting, took place under the shadow of a looming changing of the guard at the central bank: Warsh is set to be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday, succeeding Jerome Powell, who will stay on for a time as a governor.
Warsh comes to the Fed as a critic of some of its key work over recent years, such as using aggressive asset buying as a tool to help calm markets in times of stress and to augment the stimulative power of its short-term interest rate target.
Warsh has also leaned toward a greater coordination with the Treasury Department in matters outside of monetary policy, which suggests possible changes for how the Fed uses its various liquidity tools to address financial stress.
Some fear the Fed will be less willing to step in in times of trouble and that the likely path toward accomplishing Warsh’s desire for a smaller Fed balance sheet would actually increase risk in the financial system.
NOTABLE VULNERABILITIES
In the meeting minutes, Fed staff “on balance continued to characterize the system’s financial vulnerabilities as notable. The staff judged that asset valuation pressures were elevated.” Fed staff seemed relatively sanguine on the state of household balance sheets but were worried about borrowing, most notably by hedge funds active in the government bond market.
Meanwhile, unnamed Fed policy makers shared at least some of that assessment.
“Several participants noted that asset valuations remained elevated and that such conditions heightened the possibility of sharp corrections should adverse developments materialize,” while “many” officials noted concerns about private credit markets given the opacity of the sector.
The minutes said some Fed officials discussed “ongoing and potential operational improvements related to various liquidity tools” used by the central bank, including the discount window facility, standing repo operations and arrangements to provide dollars to other major central banks.
The minutes, in noting that officials voted to affirm the current currency swap lines, said “a few” Fed officials were interested in extending that arrangement beyond the current year, saying “a longer extension would be beneficial for financial stability.”
Fed officials have been pressing for some time to get more deposit-taking banks prepared to use the discount window lending facility, its long-running and frequently stigmatized tool to extend fast credit to banks.
The Fed has also been tinkering with various arrangements for its repo operations, which loan cash to eligible financial firms. The Fed has encouraged eligible firms to use the discount window as needed, with the same guidance extended to the repo operations, which tend to see elevated demand during calendar-based market liquidity challenges.
Fed liquidity tools are aimed at stabilizing markets during times of stress and ensuring the Fed retains firm control of its interest rate target. Variations of these tools and policy strategies have gotten notable workouts in recent years, amid the COVID-19 pandemic and the banking crisis that happened in the spring of 2023.
While the Fed has defended its tool kit—New York Fed System Open Market Account Manager Roberto Perli said on Tuesday that the current system “is demonstrably very effective”—others have criticized the entire regime and it’s unclear where Warsh stands on the matter.
The interlinkage between the Fed’s various tools, which help bind short-term rates, would be hard to dismantle piece by piece, and a return to the system the Fed used before the start of the financial crisis nearly two decades ago would be very challenging and take a long time to accomplish, in the view of many observers and current central bankers.
Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
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