2026-05-20T22:09:26.215Z / 路透社
- 摘要
- 特朗普清除异己， risking alienation of moderates and independents
- 特朗普的行动可能限制共和党议员在中期选举前倒戈的自由
- 卡西迪败选后的投票表明，被赶下台的共和党人可能会反对特朗普的优先事项
5月20日（路透社）——在其第二任总统任期进入第16个月之际，唐纳德·特朗普在美国选民中的支持率可能达到了史上最低水平——但他对核心的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）选民群体的掌控仍未动摇。
这种影响力在过去两周充分显现，特朗普罢免了一系列他认为不够忠诚的共和党同僚。这位总统的报复之旅在周二继续上演，他亲手挑选的忠实支持者在肯塔基州党内初选中击败了经常批评他的联邦众议员托马斯·马西。
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但一些共和党战略家表示，特朗普成功清除党内异己，可能会损害共和党在11月中期选举中保住国会控制权的机会。
特朗普的行动似乎旨在动员其最铁杆的支持者，而非争取独立温和派共和党选民——这些选民可能在竞争激烈的选战中起到决定性作用。
而这些选战中的共和党候选人可能会感受到更大压力，需要更加紧密地依附特朗普，以免成为他愤怒的最新目标——尽管这可能会让他们失去“让美国再次伟大”选民群体之外的选票。
“任何时候，执政党在中期选举中面临逆风时，总统都应该努力扩大其执政联盟，”曾为多位共和党参议员担任顾问的杰夫·格拉蓬内说道。
随着伊朗局势推高能源成本，路透社/益普索周一结束的民调显示，特朗普的支持率为35%，反映出民众对通胀和生活成本的担忧日益加剧。
“减法式增员”
特朗普春季的报复行动在5月5日取得首次胜利，五位反对他要求重划印第安纳州国会选区地图的州参议员输给了特朗普背书的挑战者。
周六，联邦参议员比尔·卡西迪——他的“罪过”是在2021年1月6日国会山骚乱后的弹劾审判中投下定罪票——在特朗普背书的候选人面前大幅落后。
周二，曾多次投票激怒特朗普的马西也遭遇败选。
同一天，特朗普背书得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿参选联邦参议员，挑战现任议员约翰·康林，拒绝了参议院共和党人数个月来的恳求——后者担心丑闻缠身的帕克斯顿可能让共和党在11月失去本应稳拿的席位。
南卡罗来纳州共和党战略家罗布·戈弗雷表示，即便帕克斯顿最终在秋季胜出，共和党也可能不得不在这场选战中投入更多资金，从而挤占北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州等竞争激烈的参议院选战资源。
2017年退出共和党、如今自称独立选民的凤凰城战略家查克·考夫林将特朗普最新的清除行动描述为一场“净化行动”，可能疏远那些支持康林、马西和卡西迪的少数但重要的共和党选民。
“这是减法式增员，”考夫林说。“他正在收缩共和党阵营。”
特朗普驳斥了有关他针对现任共和党人可能损害共和党11月选情的担忧。
“他们会没事的，”他周三对记者谈到共和党领导人时说。“他们想要胜选。我知道如何胜选——我想我已经证明了这一点，不是吗？”
处境艰难的共和党人陷入两难
特朗普拒不接受任何不忠行为，这可能让处于危险选区的共和党议员更难在政治分歧议题上反对他，比如为总统的私人舞厅拨款或迫使结束伊朗战争。
俄克拉荷马大学政治学教授雷切尔·布卢姆表示，传统上，执政党会在中期选举前允许国会议员与其划清界限，尤其是在总统支持率低迷的情况下。
“这正是我们当前所处的局面，但你看不到这种自由或回旋余地被赋予议员们，”她说。
一位熟悉共和党战略的人士反驳了这一说法，称特朗普主要针对的是马西和卡西迪这类所在选区非常安全的共和党人，同时允许一些竞争激烈选区的议员在某些议题上表现出两党合作态度，甚至与总统意见相左。
特朗普将于周五与联邦众议员迈克·劳勒一同开展竞选活动。劳勒所在的纽约选区被广泛认为是民主党在11月最有可能拿下的席位之一。劳勒曾多次与特朗普意见相左，包括支持民主党一项保护海地移民免遭驱逐的法案。
但特朗普也表现出针对竞争更激烈选区共和党人的意愿。周三在对记者的讲话中，他批评了宾夕法尼亚州联邦众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克——民主党将其列为中期选举的目标之一，而他是仅有的三位投票支持结束伊朗战争的共和党众议院议员之一。
“我不知道他怎么回事，”特朗普说。“他喜欢投票反对特朗普。你知道那会有什么下场……不会有好结果的。”
对特朗普的全民公投
特朗普成功清除异己，还可能危及他在华盛顿的议程。共和党在国会两院的微弱多数优势意味着，他们仅能承受寥寥数票的反对。
卡西迪在初选失利不到72小时后，突然转而支持一项民主党法案，迫使特朗普结束战争或寻求国会授权，帮助该法案在七次尝试失败后终于在参议院通过。
“特朗普无疑掌控着自己的政党，但他在国会山的执政立场变得复杂化了，”格拉蓬内说。“现在那些被他反对或诋毁的共和党参议员已经没有什么可失去的了。”
亚利桑那州共和党战略家布莱恩·塞奇克表示，无论如何，中期选举在很大程度上都会是对特朗普执政记录的全民公投，这让共和党人即使想与他划清界限也很难做到。
“一般来说，政党荣辱与共，”他说。
但他也指出，特朗普有颠覆政治常规的历史。
“普遍观点认为，如果你不支持特朗普，你就会在初选中失败；而如果你支持特朗普，你就会在大选中失败，”塞奇克说。“这是当下的主流看法，但特朗普再次打破了常规。”
内森·莱恩、博·埃里克森和约瑟夫·阿克斯特报道；科琳·詹金斯和迪帕·巴宾顿编辑
How Trump’s revenge tour against Republicans could cost the party in November
2026-05-20T22:09:26.215Z / Reuters
- Summary
- Trump purges dissenters, risking alienation of moderates and independents
- Trump’s actions could limit Republican lawmakers’ freedom to break ranks before midterms
- Cassidy’s post-defeat vote shows risk that ousted Republicans will oppose Trump’s priorities
May 20 (Reuters) – Sixteen months into his second presidency, Donald Trump may be as unpopular as he’s ever been among the American electorate – but his grip on his core base of MAGA voters remains unshaken.
That power was on full display over the last two weeks, as Trump ousted a string of fellow Republicans he considered apostates for not showing him enough personal fealty. The president’s revenge tour continued on Tuesday, when a hand-picked loyalist defeated U.S. Representative Thomas Massie, a frequent critic, in a Kentucky nominating contest.
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But Trump’s success in purging the party of dissenters could also hurt its chances of retaining control of Congress in November’s midterm elections, some Republican strategists said.
Trump’s actions appear aimed at mobilizing his most diehard supporters, rather than reaching out to independent or moderate Republican voters who will likely play a determinative role in highly competitive races.
And the Republican candidates in those contests may feel pressure to tether themselves even more closely to Trump to avoid becoming the latest targets of his ire – even though it may cost them voters outside the Make America Great Again base.
“Anytime the party in power in the midterm elections faces headwinds, the president should be looking to grow his coalition,” said Jeff Grappone, a former adviser to several Republican senators.
With the Iran war driving energy costs higher, Trump’s approval rating was at 35% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday, reflecting growing concern about inflation and the cost of living.
‘ADDITION BY SUBTRACTION’
Trump’s spring retribution campaign notched its first victory on May 5, when five Indiana state senators who had bucked his demand to redraw the state’s congressional map lost to Trump-endorsed challengers.
On Saturday, Republican U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy – whose sin was voting to convict Trump at his 2021 impeachment trial over the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol – finished far behind a Trump-backed candidate.
And on Tuesday, Massie, who had cast several votes that angered Trump, was defeated.
The same day, Trump endorsed Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the state’s U.S. Senate race over the incumbent, John Cornyn, rejecting months of entreaties from Senate Republicans worried that the scandal-ridden Paxton could cost them a reliably Republican seat in November.
Even if Paxton ultimately prevails in the fall, Republicans will likely be forced to spend more money on that race, draining resources from competitive Senate races in states such as North Carolina and Georgia, said Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist in South Carolina.
Chuck Coughlin, a Phoenix-based strategist who left the Republican Party in 2017 and now identifies as an independent, described Trump’s latest purges as a “purification exercise” that could alienate the smaller but significant minority of Republican voters who backed Cornyn, Massie and Cassidy.
“It’s addition by subtraction,” Coughlin said. “He’s shrinking the party.”
Trump dismissed concerns that he might be harming his party’s chances in November by going after incumbent Republicans.
“They’ll be alright with it,” he told reporters on Wednesday, referring to Republican leaders. “They want to win. I know how to win – I think I’ve proven that, haven’t I?”
VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS IN BIND
Trump’s refusal to brook any disloyalty could make it more difficult for Republicans in vulnerable seats to oppose him on politically divisive votes, such as funding for the president’s ballroom or forcing an end to the Iran war.
Rachel Blum, a political science professor at the University of Oklahoma, said the party in control has traditionally given members of Congress room to break with it in the run-up to the midterm election, especially when the president is unpopular.
“That’s exactly the conditions we have right now, but you aren’t seeing that kind of freedom or leeway being given to members,” she said.
A person familiar with Republican strategy pushed back against that narrative, saying Trump has largely targeted Republicans in very safe districts – like Massie and Cassidy – while allowing some members in competitive districts to show bipartisanship or even break with the president on certain issues.
Trump on Friday will campaign with Republican U.S. Representative Mike Lawler, whose New York district is widely seen as one of Democrats’ most viable pickup opportunities in November. Lawler has broken with Trump at times, including siding with Democrats on legislation protecting Haitian immigrants from deportation.
But Trump has also shown a willingness to go after Republicans in more competitive races. In remarks to reporters on Wednesday, he criticized U.S. Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican from Pennsylvania whom Democrats have targeted in the midterms and who is one of only three Republican House members to vote to end the Iran war.
“I don’t know what’s with him,” Trump said. “He likes voting against Trump. You know what happens with that … doesn’t work out well.”
REFERENDUM ON TRUMP
Trump’s successful expulsions may also endanger his agenda in Washington, where Republicans’ razor-thin congressional majorities mean they can only afford to lose a handful of votes.
Less than 72 hours after losing his primary, Cassidy abruptly switched sides and backed a Democratic measure to force Trump to end the war or seek congressional authorization, helping to push it through the Senate after seven previous failed attempts.
“Trump is certainly in command of his own party, but he’s complicated his governing position on Capitol Hill,” Grappone said. “We now have Republican senators that he’s opposed or torpedoed who have nothing left to lose.”
Brian Seitchik, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, said the midterms will largely be a referendum on Trump’s record no matter what, making it difficult for Republicans to distance themselves from him even if they were inclined to try.
“As a general rule, the parties swim and drown together,” he said.
But, he noted, Trump has a track record of upending political assumptions.
“It’s conventional wisdom to say if you’re not with Trump, then you lose the primary, and if you’re with Trump, you lose the general election,” Seitchik said. “That’s the conventional wisdom of the day, but Trump again continues to defy gravity.”
Reporting by Nathan Layne, Bo Erickson and Joseph Ax; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Deepa Babington
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