弗吉尼亚州共和党中期选举重划选区的努力或使其付出惨痛代价


2026年2月6日 / 美国东部时间下午2:56 / CBS新闻

特朗普总统所在的共和党押注于重新划定得克萨斯州、密苏里州和北卡罗来纳州民主党控制的国会选区,以帮助保守派在2026年中期选举中保住众议院的微弱多数席位。然而,这种非常规的中期重新划界方式可能最终导致共和党在弗吉尼亚州失去多达四个国会席位。

民主党本周已准备了一项严厉的党派操纵选区计划,如果该计划成为法律并在今年秋季的选举中实施,可能会大幅改变弗吉尼亚州在国会山的代表格局。

弗吉尼亚州民主党州参议员L.路易斯·卢卡斯(L. Louise Lucas)在一段社交媒体视频中表示:”今天我们正在重塑公平竞争的环境。这些不是普通的时代,弗吉尼亚不会在这一切发生时置身事外。”

然而,关于这一更大规模的努力能否经受住正在进行的法律审查,仍存在疑问。而且,它还面临着在南方地区需要快速获得选民批准的挑战,而该地区绝不是全州选民的蓝色庇护所。

“这项极端提案在任何一张选票投出之前就已操纵了游戏结果,”弗吉尼亚州共和党众议员罗布·维特曼(Rob Wittman)在一份声明中表示,他是该提案针对的四名现任议员之一。

弗吉尼亚州的这一举措是共和党人与民主党人之间持续升级的争端的最新升级,而此次选举充满了历史先例——现任总统所在政党往往在中期选举中失去众议院席位。

特朗普和得克萨斯州的共和党人去年夏天采取行动,将五个民主党控制的席位重新划分,使其更有利于共和党人。

加利福尼亚州民主党州长加文·纽森(Gavin Newsom)随后在全国范围内推动重新划分该州地图,以应对得克萨斯州发生的情况。去年秋天,他成功获得该州选民批准了新地图,这可能会有效遏制共和党试图获得的任何收益。

在随后的几个月里,北卡罗来纳州和密苏里州的共和党人各自夺取了本州的一个民主党选区,并改变边界,以提高今年秋季共和党候选人赢得该席位的可能性。

但最初对民主党来说是严峻的形势——全国范围内的共和党立法领导人展示了他们的政治影响力,以帮助一位即将进入跛脚鸭状态的岌岌可危的总统——这可能最终只会对共和党产生微小的帮助,甚至根本没有帮助。

犹他州在法院下令下重新划分选区,预计将帮助民主党从共和党手中夺取一个席位。堪萨斯州共和党人试图改变该州唯一民主党女议员的选区,却悄然失败。俄亥俄州的两党协议避免了左翼因共和党严厉操纵选区而陷入噩梦般的局面。而在2025年底,印第安纳州参议院多数共和党人反对特朗普,并投票否决了改革该州仅有的两个民主党国会选区的提案。

弗吉尼亚州民主党人几个月来一直在努力应对全国范围内的重新划分选区僵局。但这样做需要公众的支持,因为就在几年前,66%的选民通过了一项措施,将国会选区划分权交给了一个两党委员会。

民主党现在的目标是4月21日的特别选举,届时选民将有机会批准一项新的宪法修正案,允许该党推动本周公开的党派操纵选区计划。

但在1月份,弗吉尼亚州一名法官以该党为尽快将这一变革纳入投票而采取的步骤为由,驳回了这一推动,使得民主党重新划分选区的希望陷入危险。

随着更多法律策略的展开,弗吉尼亚州民主党人继续推进他们的计划,本周公布了选区地图提案。

目前,弗吉尼亚州的六个国会选区由民主党人控制,五个由共和党人控制。

根据该计划,四个共和党国会席位成为目标:罗布·维特曼的第一选区、詹·基根斯(Jen Kiggans)的第二选区、约翰·麦奎尔(John McGuire)的第五选区和本·克莱恩(Ben Cline)的第六选区。在这四个选区中,只有基根斯和克莱恩的席位在今年有可能具有竞争力,而另外两个将变成稳固的蓝色选区。考虑到弗吉尼亚州最近的党派历史,本周公布的新地图可能会成为全国范围内最激进的操纵选区之一。

弗吉尼亚州是一个紫色州,自2004年大选以来一直可靠地投票给民主党总统候选人。但在2024年总统选举中,特朗普仅以约6个百分点的优势输掉了该州。

这也可能不是中期选举前最后一个采取行动的州。

马里兰州民主党州长韦斯·摩尔(Wes Moore)试图将该州最后一个共和党席位变成民主党容易获得的席位,但他与反对这一做法的民主党参议院领袖陷入僵局。

与此同时,共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)和他的佛罗里达州共和党同僚准备在今年春季晚些时候尝试剥夺该州日益减少的民主党控制的国会席位。

从弗吉尼亚州和得克萨斯州到加利福尼亚州和北卡罗来纳州的任何变化,都可能对哪个政党控制众议院产生关键影响——尤其是在特朗普总统任期最后两年期间。或者,它们可能最终成为政治规范被大量抛弃的时代中的一个注脚。

Redistricting effort aimed at helping Republicans in midterms could cost them dearly in Virginia

February 6, 2026 / 2:56 PM EST / CBS News

President Trump’s Republican Party has gambled on redrawing Democratic-held congressional districts in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina to help boost conservatives’ chances at holding on to a narrow House majority in the 2026 midterm elections.This out of the ordinary mid-decade approach, however, may end up costing Republicans as many as four congressional seats in Virginia.

Democrats this week have prepared a harsh partisan gerrymander that could dramatically shift the commonwealth’s representation on Capitol Hill if it were to become law and be used in this fall’s elections.

“Today we are leveling the playing field,” Virginia Democratic state Sen. L. Louise Lucas said in a social media video. “These are not ordinary times and Virginia will not sit on the sidelines while it happens.”

Questions remain, however, about whether the larger endeavor will survive ongoing legal scrutiny. And it faces the challenge of needing quick voter approval in a part of the south that is by no means a blue sanctuary of statewide voters.

“This extreme proposal rigs the game before a single vote is cast,” GOP Virginia Congressman Rob Wittman, one of the four incumbents targeted by the proposal, said in a statement,

The move in Virginia serves as the latest escalation of a feud between Republicans and Democrats ahead of an election rife with the historical precedent that the incumbent president’s party tends to lose House seats in the midterms.

Mr. Trump and Republicans in Texas moved last summer to shift five Democratic-held seats and shape them to be more favorable to Republicans.

California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom then made a national case to redraw his state’s maps to counter what was happening in Texas. He succeeded in winning the approval by his state’s voters of a new map last fall that could effectively curtail any gains the GOP aims to make.

In the months that followed, Republicans in North Carolina and Missouri each took a Democratic district in their respective states and changed the boundaries to help improve the likelihood that a GOP contender would instead carry the seat this fall.

But what started out as a dire dynamic for Democrats, one in which GOP legislative leaders around the country flexed their political muscle to help an embattled president moving closer to lame-duck status, may only end up helping Republicans minimally, if at all.

A court-ordered redraw in ruby red Utah is expected to help Democrats pick up one seat from the GOP. Kansas Republicans’ pursuit of changing the district of the state’s lone Democratic congresswoman quietly failed. A bipartisan deal in Ohio averted a nightmare scenario for the left of a harsh Republican gerrymander. And to close out 2025, a majority of Indiana Senate Republicans sided against Mr. Trump and voted down overhauling the state’s only two Democratic congressional districts.

Virginia Democrats have been working for months to respond to the national redistricting standoff. But doing so requires buy-in from the public, since just a few years ago, 66% of voters passed a measure giving congressional drawing power to a bipartisan commission.

Democrats are now aiming for an April 21 special election in which voters would have the chance to sign off on a new constitutional amendment allowing the party to push through the partisan gerrymander released publicly this week.

But Democrats’ redraw hopes are in peril, after a Virginia judge in January rejected the push, citing the steps the party quickly took to try and get the change on the ballot.

As more legal maneuvering plays out, Virginia Democrats have continued to push forward on their plans, culminating in the release of this week’s map proposal.

Currently, six of Virginia’s congressional districts are held by Democrats and five are held by Republicans.

Under the plan, four GOP congressional seats are targeted: Rob Wittman’s 1st District, Jen Kiggans, 2nd District, John McGuire 5th District and Ben Cline’s 6th District. Of those four, only Kiggans and Cline’s seats appear to have the potential to be competitive this year, while the other two would become comfortably blue. The new map unveiled this week would likely be among the most aggressive gerrymanders in the country, given Virginia’s recent partisan history.

Virginia is a purple state that has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate reliably since the 2004 election. But in the 2024 presidential election, Mr. Trump only lost the commonwealth by around six points.

It also may not end up being the last state to act before the midterms.

In Maryland, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore is trying to turn the state’s last GOP seat into an easy pickup for Democrats, but is in a standoff with the Democratic senate leader who opposes it.

Meanwhile, GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and his fellow Florida Republicans are primed to try later this spring to potentially take away some of the state’s dwindling Democratic-held congressional seats.

Any changes, from Virginia and Texas to California and North Carolina, could prove to be critical in which party controls the House for the final two years of Mr. Trump’s presidency. Or they could end up being a footnote during a span of time where many political norms were discarded.

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