2026年5月12日 / 美国东部时间下午4:19 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
由伊朗战争引发的全球石油供应冲击正在严重打击美国驾车者和其他消费者，联邦最新数据清晰显示了这一点。
4月消费者价格指数按年率飙升3.8%，为近三年来最快涨幅，其中能源价格上涨贡献了总通胀涨幅的40%。
美国劳工部数据显示，上月汽油价格指数同比涨幅超过28%。包括汽油、取暖油和电力在内的整体能源成本上月同比上涨近18%。
华尔街分析师指出，对于数百万劳动者而言，过去两个月的价格飙升意味着当前通胀增速已经超过了工资涨幅。
“这清晰地表明了高油价正在挤压家庭实际工资，”惠誉评级首席经济学家布莱恩·库尔顿在一封电子邮件中表示，并警告称如果油价维持高位，在政府6月初发布下一份消费者价格指数报告时，整体通胀率可能突破4%。
根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，目前美国全国汽油均价为每加仑4.50美元，较战争爆发前上涨了超过1.50美元。美国能源信息署周二发布的预测显示，今年剩余时间全美零售汽油均价将为每加仑3.88美元，2027年将降至每加仑3.62美元。
2月中东冲突爆发前，美国全国汽油均价略低于3美元。
GasBuddy的石油专家帕特里克·德汉姆估计，自3月1日以来，美国民众因油价上涨在汽油上多花费了280亿美元，其中220亿美元的额外燃油成本直接源于伊朗战争。
特朗普政府官员表示，他们预计中东冲突造成的石油流动中断将是暂时的，一旦原油供应恢复，美国汽油价格将迅速回落。
“不过，4月消费者价格指数报告进一步证明，尽管存在这些 disruption，特朗普总统的长期经济议程仍在发挥作用：得益于总统的最惠国待遇和价格透明举措，药品和医院服务价格正在下降，同时数万亿美元的投资继续为制造业和建筑业工人带来强劲的实际工资增长，”白宫发言人库什·德赛在给哥伦比亚广播公司新闻的一份声明中说道。
通胀影响超出燃油领域
美国各地的电力价格也在大幅上涨，4月平均同比上涨6.1%。此次涨价正值科技公司竞相建设数据中心，以满足人工智能服务所需的海量能源需求。
高盛集团分析师在近期一份报告中表示，他们预计数据中心热潮带来的电力需求增长将在未来两年推高通胀。
机票价格是消费者感受到压力的另一个领域，消费者价格指数数据显示，4月机票价格同比上涨近21%。美国航空业贸易组织美国航空协会的数据显示，航空公司正在提高票价以抵消航空燃油成本上涨的压力，自战争爆发以来航空燃油价格已上涨超过1.50美元。
由于伊朗战争推高了广泛应用于运输、航运和农业的柴油价格，消费者可能还会面临食品价格上涨。根据美国汽车协会的数据，周二柴油均价为每加仑5.64美元，仅比2022年6月的历史最高价低18美分。
最新消费者价格指数数据显示，4月食品价格同比上涨3.2%。
通胀未来走势如何？
经济学家预计，随着战争的影响在经济中蔓延，未来几个月美国通胀率将进一步上升。
“即便伊朗战争今日结束，其引发的经济危机余波也将持续数月甚至更久，从汽油到食品再到公用事业价格，”进步派智库世纪基金会访问资深研究员、前美国劳工部首席经济学家珍妮尔·琼斯在一封电子邮件中说道。
安永咨询公司首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科认为，5月年度通胀率将超过4%，而剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本的核心通胀率将接近3%。4月核心通胀率为2.8%，略高于FactSet调查的经济学家此前预测的2.7%。
随着通胀进一步偏离美联储设定的2%目标，许多经济学家现在预测美联储今年将完全不降息。
编辑：阿兰·谢特
Searing U.S. energy prices are driving the hottest inflation in years
May 12, 2026 / 4:19 PM EDT / CBS News
The global oil supply shock stemming from the Iran war is scorching U.S. motorists and other consumers, new federal data makes clear.
Higher energy prices accounted for 40% of the total jump in inflation in April, when the Consumer Price Index surged at an annual rate of 3.8% — the fastest increase in nearly three years.
The index for gasoline prices last month was up more than 28% from a year ago, the Department of Labor found. Overall energy costs — which includes gas, heating oil and electricity — last month rose nearly 18% from a year ago.
For millions of workers, the spike in prices over the last two months means inflation is now outpacing wage growth, Wall Street analysts noted.
“That is a very clear illustration of the impact that higher energy prices are having in squeezing households’ real wages,” Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, said in an email, warning that headline inflation could top 4% by the time the government releases the next CPI report in early June if oil prices remain elevated.
A gallon of gasoline around the country now costs an average of $4.50, up more than $1.50 since the war started, according to AAA. And in a forecast on Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that retail gas prices will average $3.88 per gallon over the rest of the year and $3.62 per gallon in 2027.
Before the Middle East conflict erupted in February, the national average for a gallon of gas hovered just below $3.
Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, estimates that Americans have spent an additional $28 billion on gas since March 1 due to higher prices. Of that figure, he estimated that $22 billion in additional fuel costs stem directly from the Iran war.
Trump administration officials have said they expect the disruption in oil flows due to the Middle East conflict to be temporary and that U.S. gas prices will quickly recede once crude supplies resume.
“The April CPI report reinforces, however, that President Trump’s long-term economic agenda continues to deliver despite these disruptions: Drug and hospital services prices are declining thanks to the President’s Most-Favored-Nation and price transparency initiatives, while trillions in investments continue to drive robust real wage growth for manufacturing and construction workers,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to CBS News.
Pain beyond the pump
Electricity prices around the U.S. also are shooting up, rising an average of 6.1% in April from a year ago. The increase comes as technology companies race to boot up data centers capable of supplying the vast amounts of energy needed to power AI services.
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs analysts said they expect increased electricity demand from the data center boom to boost inflation over the next two years.
Airfares are another area where consumers are feeling the sting, with ticket prices up nearly 21% in April from a year ago, the CPI data shows. Airlines are hiking their prices to absorb higher jet fuel costs, which are up by more than $1.50 since before the war started, according to data from Airlines for America, a trade association.
Consumers could also see higher grocery prices as the Iran war drives up the cost of diesel, which is widely used in transportation, shipping and agriculture. Diesel averaged $5.64 a gallon on Tuesday, just 18 cents below its record high in June 2022, according to AAA.
Food prices in April were up 3.2% from a year ago, according to the latest CPI data.
Where could inflation go from here?
Economists expect U.S. inflation to accelerate in the coming months as the impact from the war works its way through the economy.
“Even if the war in Iran were to end today, the tail of the economic crisis it has created will last months or longer, from gasoline to food to utility prices,” Janelle Jones, visiting senior fellow at the progressive Century Foundation and former chief economist at the Department of Labor, said in an email.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, thinks the annual rate of inflation will surpass 4% in May, while core inflation (which strips out volatile food and energy costs) will approach 3%. Core inflation in April was 2.8%, just above the 2.7% predicted by economists polled by FactSet.
With inflation drifting further from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate, many economists now predict the central bank won’t cut interest rates at all this year.
Edited by Alain Sherter
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