2026-05-11T18:30:59.896Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：艾伦·布莱克
发布时间：2026年5月11日，美国东部时间下午2:30
唐纳德·特朗普 中东
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唐纳德·特朗普总统5月8日在华盛顿白宫南草坪走向海军一号准备登机时对记者发表讲话。
何塞·路易斯·马加纳/美联社
这场持续数月的伊朗问题危机中，最荒诞的一幕或许发生在4月中旬：当时特朗普总统坚称德黑兰刚刚“同意了”他提出的所有要求。
当然，事实并非如此。除了特朗普本人的臆想之外，没有任何理由相信这些所谓的协议曾以任何形式存在过。即便在数周后的今天，几乎所有迹象都表明，美伊双方仍存在巨大分歧。
特朗普仿佛试图通过主观意愿凭空造出一份协议。但事与愿违，他向包括伊朗在内的所有人明确传递出一个信号：他迫切渴望达成一项协议。
这并非第一次，也不会是最后一次。
近几周来，只要伊朗不满足他的要求，特朗普就会表现出异常犹豫的态度。他及其政府团队绞尽脑汁，试图解释为何不断给伊朗留出空间和时间。
尽管这种做法偶尔能让市场恢复平静，但伊朗领导人似乎将其解读为一个信号：他们只需耐心等待，就能耗过这位不愿全面重启战争的美国总统。
毕竟，重新开启公开军事冲突，可能会加剧高油价带来的经济阵痛，危及美国人的生命，并消耗本已捉襟见肘的美国武器库存。
但这并不意味着特朗普最终不会再次对伊朗发动打击。周一他在椭圆形办公室表示，为期一个月的停火协议“正依赖呼吸机维持生命”。他最终可能认定德黑兰一直在敷衍他，认为发动打击是必要之举。但显然，他已经给了伊朗非同寻常的回旋余地。
最能体现这一态势的典型表现是，特朗普多次为伊朗设定达成协议的最后期限，随后即便伊朗并未同意相关协议，他也会自行放宽期限。仅在3月21日至4月21日这一个月内，这样的情况就至少发生了五次。
大多数时候，特朗普会以协议即将达成作为放宽最后期限的理由。但到第五次时，他甚至懒得再找借口——那次他明确表示不再设定期限。
就连4月7日宣布的停火协议本身，也暴露出特朗普急于结束军事打击的焦虑情绪。双方甚至无法就停火协议的核心条款达成一致，比如协议是否涵盖以色列在黎巴嫩的军事行动。但就在伊朗威胁退出谈判之际，特朗普及其政府团队匆忙敲定了部分争议问题。这一切都表明，这份协议的达成相当仓促随意，只是为了避免兑现特朗普曾发出的末日式威胁。
到4月19日，特朗普暗示美国将派遣另一支代表团前往巴基斯坦进行谈判。但伊朗并未公开同意和谈。到4月21日，美国代表团的行程被取消。
就在同一天，特朗普仍将本应在两周后到期的停火协议延长——尽管他此前曾称这种结果“极不可能”。
随后就是上周的事态发展。
周二，美国国防部表示，伊朗的数次挑衅行动——包括德黑兰向护送船只通过霍尔木兹海峡的美国军舰开火，以及袭击阿联酋目标——并未达到违反停火协议的“阈值”。
2026年5月1日，阿曼穆桑达姆的霍尔木兹海峡内的船只。
路透社
美国国防部长皮特·赫格斯瑟还暗示，这些事件甚至都算不上战争的一部分。他将特朗普称之为“自由计划”的护航行动描述为一项独立行动，并敦促伊朗在停火期间“保持审慎”。
这一表态令人侧目。美国顶级国防官员似乎在表示，伊朗对美国的部分攻击行为是“合理的”，并竭力辩称停火协议依然有效。
当天晚些时候，尽管赫格斯瑟、国务卿马可·卢比奥以及参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军当天都在宣扬“自由计划”的价值，特朗普还是宣布终止该计划。
周四的事态如出一辙。尽管美伊之间再次爆发交火，美军打击了其声称应对海峡地区袭击负责的军事设施，特朗普仍将此次交火称为“只是轻轻碰了一下”，并表示：“停火协议正在推进，目前仍然有效。”
但停火协议生效一个多月以来，几乎没有证据表明当前环境有利于达成协议。目前看来，停火更多只是给双方一个暂时不想开战的借口，得以暂时休战。
不过这对伊朗更为有利，因为伊朗已经明确表示愿意打一场持久战。对特朗普政府官员而言，这一态势可能让他们看起来像是在被动地被伊朗牵着鼻子走，同时还要设法体面地从潜在的泥潭中脱身。
周日，特朗普针对伊朗的最新提案回应称其“完全不可接受”。
这一表态周日引发了大量关注，但另一条社交媒体帖子或许更能体现特朗普的真实想法。周日早些时候，他在社交媒体上发文称，伊朗47年来一直在“‘敷衍’我们，让我们一直等待”。
这听起来像是他现在意识到伊朗并不急于达成协议——至少不会按照特朗普能接受的条件达成协议。或许这位两个月来一直坚称伊朗迫切需要达成协议的人，终于认清了现实。
但认清现实与找到应对之策是两码事。
而显然，特朗普并未停止给伊朗留出时间和空间。
周一，就在他称停火协议“正依赖呼吸机维持生命”，将其比作存活概率仅为1%的患者之前不久，特朗普对福克斯新闻表示，他仍专注于通过外交途径解决问题。
“他们会妥协的，”特朗普说道，还补充道：“我会和他们周旋，直到他们达成协议。”
Trump ties himself in knots to avoid resuming a full-scale war in Iran
2026-05-11T18:30:59.896Z / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
PUBLISHED May 11, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Donald Trump The Middle East
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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he walks to board Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on May 8 in Washington, DC.
Jose Luis Magana/AP
Perhaps the most bizarre moment in the monthslong Iran war occurred in mid-April, when President Donald Trump insisted that Tehran had just “agreed to everything” he had demanded.
That didn’t pan out, of course. And there’s no reason to believe the agreements existed — even tentatively — anywhere except in Trump’s own head. Pretty much everything else continues to suggest, even weeks later, that the two sides remain far apart.
Trump acted like he could will an agreement into existence. Instead, he made it abundantly clear to everyone, including Iran, that he was desperate for a deal.
It wasn’t the first time, or the last.
Over and over again, Trump has appeared remarkably hesitant in recent weeks to resume fighting if Iran doesn’t give him what he wants. He and his administration have tied themselves in knots to explain why they keep giving Iran latitude and time.
But while this approach might occasionally calm the markets, Iranian leaders seem to be taking it as a signal that they can just wait out a US president who doesn’t want to go back to full-scale war.
Returning to open military hostilities, after all, risks prolonging the economic pain of high gas prices, potentially risking American lives and depleting dwindling US weapons stockpiles.
None of it means Trump won’t ultimately strike Iran again. He declared Monday from the Oval Office that the monthlong ceasefire was “on massive life support.” He could ultimately decide Tehran has been stringing him along and that such attacks are necessary. But he’s clearly given it a remarkable amount of leeway.
The most frequent indicator of this dynamic is Trump’s repeated setting of deadlines for Iran to agree to a deal or else, and then his pulling back even when Iran didn’t agree to said deal. It happened on no fewer than five occasions in one month, between March 21 and April 21.
Most times, Trump said the deadline was being relaxed because a deal could be imminent. But by the fifth time, he didn’t even bother to claim that — and he explicitly said there was no deadline that time.
Even the very beginning of the ceasefire announced on April 7 revealed some anxiousness to end military strikes on Trump’s part. The two sides couldn’t even agree on some of the main aspects of the ceasefire, like whether it included Israeli attacks in Lebanon. But as Iran threatened to pull out, Trump and his administration rushed to work out some of those issues. It all suggested that the agreement was rather haphazardly and hastily assembled to avoid making good on Trump’s apocalyptic threats.
By April 19, Trump signaled the United States would send another delegation to Pakistan to negotiate. But Iran hadn’t publicly agreed to the peace talks. By April 21, the US delegation was called off.
That same day, Trump still extended the ceasefire, which was due to expire after two weeks — despite previously labeling that outcome “highly unlikely.”
Then came last week.
On Tuesday, the Defense Department said several bouts of Iranian aggression — including Tehran firing on US ships guiding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and attacking the United Arab Emirates — didn’t clear the “threshold” for violating the ceasefire.
Ships and boats in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam, Oman, May 1, 2026.
Reuters
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also suggested the episodes weren’t even part of the war. He depicted efforts to guide ships through the strait, which Trump had dubbed Project Freedom, as a separate operation. He urged Iran “to be prudent” in its actions during the ceasefire.
It was a striking moment. Top US defense officials seemed to be saying some Iranian attacks on the United States were fair game and straining to pitch the ceasefire as intact.
Later that day, Trump ended Project Freedom despite Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chaiman Gen. Dan Caine having spent the day espousing its value.
Thursday saw a similar series of events. Despite another exchange of fire with Iran, in which the US struck military facilities it said were responsible for the attacks in the strait, Trump called it “just a love tap” and said: “The ceasefire is going. It’s in effect.”
But more than a month after the ceasefire began, there is little evidence it’s producing an environment for a deal. It mostly seems to have given two sides that would prefer not to fight right now an excuse not to fight.
That’s more helpful to Iran, though, which has telegraphed its willingness to dig in for a prolonged conflict. For Trump administration officials, that risks looking like they’re being willingly strung along while they try to figure out a face-saving exit from a potential quagmire.
Trump on Sunday responded to Iran’s latest proposal by calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.”
That missive got a ton of attention Sunday, but another post might reveal more about where Trump’s head is at. Earlier Sunday afternoon, he wrote a whole social media post about how Iran had spent 47 years “‘tapping’ us along, keeping us waiting.”
It sounded like he might now believe that Iran isn’t so interested in cutting a deal — at least on terms that would be acceptable to Trump. Maybe the guy who has spent two months assuring Iran is desperate for a deal realizes it’s actually not.
But recognizing that and figuring out what to do about it are two different things.
And it appears Trump isn’t done giving Iran time and space.
On Monday, moments before he said the ceasefire was “on massive life support” and compared it to a patient with a 1% change of surviving, Trump signaled to Fox News that he was still focused on a diplomatic solution.
“They’re going to fold,” Trump said, adding: “I will deal with them until they make a deal.”
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