2026年5月7日 12:38:15 UTC / 路透社
作者：露西娅·穆蒂卡尼
2026年5月7日 美国东部时间下午12:38，更新于1小时前
- 内容提要
- 每周失业救济申请人数增加10000人，至200000人
- 持续领取失业救济人数降至2024年1月以来最低水平
华盛顿，5月7日（路透社）—— 上周美国申请失业救济金的人数小幅上升，但裁员率仍处于低位，这凸显了劳动力市场的稳定性，也进一步强化了金融市场的预期：美联储今年不会降息。
美国劳工部周四发布的每周失业救济申请报告是反映经济健康状况的最及时数据，报告仍未显示出美以与伊朗冲突引发的油价冲击对劳动力市场造成明显压力的明确迹象。
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4月底领取失业救济金的人数有所减少，但这一下降可能部分源于部分求职者的救济资格到期——美国大多数州的失业救济期限最长为26周。低裁员率为劳动力市场提供了支撑。经济学家仍对这场冲突通过霍尔木兹海峡石油运输造成的下行风险保持警惕。
“美联储官员去年因担忧失业和失业率上升而降息，但如今完全没有理由考虑降息，因为劳动力市场稳如磐石，”FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·拉普基说道。
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劳工部称，在截至5月2日的一周内，首次申请州级失业救济的人数经季节性调整后增加10000人，至200000人。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测本期申请人数为205000人。此次增长部分回吐了前一周的降幅——前一周的申请人数降至1969年以来的最低水平。
美国政府周二发布的数据显示，3月每一位失业者对应0.95个职位空缺，2月这一比例为0.91，这与劳动力市场稳定的局面相符。
尽管大型科技公司因部分岗位采用人工智能而发布了一系列裁员公告，但今年以来的失业救济申请人数始终低于230000人的关口。经济学家推测，被裁的科技行业员工大概率获得了丰厚的遣散费。
全球职业介绍公司挑战者、格雷与克里斯马斯周四发布的报告显示，美国雇主4月宣布裁员83387人，较3月增加38%。不过这一数字较去年同期下降21%。
一张标题为“美国失业救济申请人数”的折线图
裁员趋势走低
今年迄今为止，美国雇主已宣布裁员300749人，较2025年同期下降50%。科技公司占裁员总数的绝大部分，人工智能常被归咎为裁员原因。
美联储上周将基准隔夜利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间，理由是对通胀的担忧。金融市场预计美联储将维持利率不变直至2027年。
美国股市早盘整体持平。美元兑一篮子货币小幅下跌。美国国债收益率走低。
申领失业救济金一周后继续领取救济的人数（这是衡量招聘情况的 proxy 指标）在截至4月25日的一周内经季节性调整后减少10000人，至176.6万人，为2024年1月以来最低水平。该数据与将于周五发布的4月就业报告无关。
路透社对经济学家的调查显示，在3月就业岗位反弹178000个后，上月非农就业岗位预计增加62000个。预计的增长放缓将反映出暖冬带来的增长动力逐渐消退，以及罢工医护人员重返工作岗位。
预计的就业增长速度将高于经济学家所说的跟上劳动年龄人口增长所需的水平。所谓的收支平衡率估算值为每月0至50000个就业岗位。
预计4月失业率维持在4.3%，也有可能四舍五入至4.2%。芝加哥联邦储备银行预测失业率为4.23%，将四舍五入至4.2%。
美国劳工部劳工统计局的另一份报告显示，衡量工人每小时产出的非农生产率在第一季度以年化0.8%的速度增长，此前第四季度的增速为1.6%。不过，工人生产率同比增长2.9%。在人工智能领域的巨额投入引发了关于其对生产率影响的争论。
“问题在于，生产率的加速增长究竟是因为人工智能和/或其他技术进步——这一趋势预计将持续下去——还是因为企业去年因政策相关不确定性而暂缓招聘，转而依靠更少的员工维持运营——这同样会带来生产率加速增长的表象，但不具备长期可持续性，”桑坦德美国资本市场首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利说道。
生产率与劳动力成本
本报由露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；编辑：千住智子和保罗·西马奥
我们的报道准则：遵循汤森路透信托原则。
US labor market stable as layoffs remain low
2026-05-07 12:38:15 UTC / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
May 7, 2026 12:38 PM UTC Updated 1 hour ago
An employee hiring sign with a QR code is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo
- Summary
- Weekly jobless claims increase 10,000 to 200,000
- Continuing claims decrease to lowest level since January 2024
WASHINGTON, May 7 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week amid low layoffs, underscoring labor market stability and strengthening financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year.
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, the most timely data on the economy’s health, continued to show no clear signs of labor market stress from an oil price shock triggered by the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
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Fewer people were collecting unemployment checks towards the end of April, though that drop could be the result of some people exhausting their eligibility, which is limited to 26 weeks in most states. Low levels of layoffs are anchoring the labor market. Economists remain wary of downside risks because of the war’s disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Fed officials cut interest rates last year because of worries over joblessness and a higher unemployment rate, but right now, there is no reason to consider interest rate cuts whatsoever because the labor market is steady as a rock,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 for the week ended May 2, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 205,000 claims for the latest week. The increase partially unwound the prior week’s decline, which had pushed claims to a level last seen in 1969.
Government data on Tuesday showed there were 0.95 job openings for every unemployed person in March versus 0.91 in February, consistent with a stable labor market.
Despite a raft of layoff announcements by big technology firms related to the adoption of artificial intelligence for some job roles, claims have remained below the 230,000 level this year. Economists speculate that laid-off technology workers are most likely receiving generous severance packages.
A report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas on Thursday showed U.S.-based employers announced 83,387 job cuts in April, up 38% from March. The tally was, however, down 21% from last year.
A line chart with the title ‘US unemployment claims’
LAYOFFS TRENDING LOWER
Employers have so far this year announced 300,749 job cuts, down 50% from the same period in 2025. Technology companies have accounted for the bulk of the layoffs, with AI often cited as the reason.
The U.S. central bank last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, citing inflation worries. Financial markets expect the Fed to keep rates steady into 2027.
U.S. stocks were largely flat in early trading. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.766 million during the week ended April 25, the lowest level since January 2024, the claims report showed. The data have no bearing on the employment report for April, which is due to be released on Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 62,000 jobs last month after rebounding by 178,000 in March, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. The anticipated slowdown will reflect the fading boost from warmer weather and the return of striking health workers.
The expected pace of job growth would be above what economists say is now needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Estimates for the so-called break-even rate are between zero and 50,000 jobs per month.
The unemployment rate is forecast to have been unchanged at 4.3% in April, with a possibility of being rounded down to 4.2%. The Chicago Fed is forecasting the jobless rate to be 4.23%, which would round down to 4.2%.
A separate report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics showed nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 0.8% annualized rate in the first quarter after rising at a 1.6% rate in the October-December quarter. Worker productivity, however, increased at a 2.9% pace from a year ago. Heavy spending on AI has ignited a debate over its impact on productivity.
“The question is whether productivity has accelerated because of AI and/or other technological advances, which would be expected to continue, or because firms were simply holding off on hiring last year due to policy-related uncertainty and making do with lower headcounts, which also shows up as a productivity acceleration but is not sustainable long-term,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
Productivity and labor costs
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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