2026年4月28日 / 美国东部时间早上6:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：玛丽·坎宁安
玛丽·坎宁安是CBS财经观察栏目的记者。她曾供职于《60分钟》、CBS新闻网以及CBS新闻24小时频道，曾参与哥伦比亚广播公司新闻实习生项目。
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美联储将于周三公布2026年第三次利率决议，届时官员们将面临通胀上行、就业市场疲软以及这很可能是杰罗姆·鲍威尔作为主席的最后一次会议的局面。
经济学家们的压倒性共识是，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将维持利率不变。周二，芝加哥商品交易所集团的美联储观察工具显示，美联储将基准利率维持在当前3.5%至3.75%区间的概率为100%。
这将是美联储今年第三次连续暂停加息，此前央行在1月和3月的会议上均维持利率不变，以评估特朗普总统的关税政策以及伊朗战争的余波对经济的影响。这场冲突导致能源价格飙升，并将通胀推升至近两年来的最高水平。
“由于伊朗战争继续给经济前景蒙上阴影，并给通胀和经济活动带来风险，FOMC可能会在本周四的4月会议上重申其观望立场，”高盛经济学家在4月26日的一份研究报告中写道。
与此同时，鲍威尔的任期将于5月15日结束，届时他将卸任美联储主席一职，结束其担任央行行长八年的任期。他预计将由凯文·沃什接任，后者上周已出席参议院银行委员会的确认听证会。
美国检察官珍妮娜·皮罗周五宣布，其办公室将结束对鲍威尔的调查，该调查针对美联储华盛顿总部翻新工程。此前特朗普总统曾施压鲍威尔降息，鲍威尔称该调查具有政治动机，这也为沃什的接任扫清了道路。
北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯最初曾表示，在司法部就美联储华盛顿总部翻新工程对鲍威尔的调查结案前，他将阻挠沃什的提名。周日，蒂利斯表示，随着调查结束，他准备推进沃什的提名程序。
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“我们预计凯文·沃什将及时获得确认，赶上6月的联邦公开市场委员会会议，”安永合伙人公司首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科在4月27日的一封邮件中说道。
以下是即将召开的美联储会议的看点。
美联储利率决议何时公布？
负责制定利率的12票投票机构联邦公开市场委员会将于美国东部时间周三下午2点公布联邦基金利率决议。
决议公布后，将于下午2点30分举行鲍威尔主持的新闻发布会，他将回应有关经济和美联储前景的提问。
美联储将作出何种决议？
根据FactSet调查的经济学家观点，美联储预计将把联邦基金利率维持在3.5%至3.75%。央行上一次降息是在2025年12月。
尽管降息将降低美国消费者的借贷成本，但也可能助推通胀，考虑到战争已经推高了物价，官员们应会避免这一情况。3月份消费者价格指数同比跃升至3.3%，为2024年5月以来的最高水平，远高于美联储2%的目标通胀率。
除了抑制通胀，美联储的双重使命还要求其维持劳动力市场充分就业。降息可以降低企业借贷和招聘新员工的成本，从而助力劳动力市场。专家指出，尽管就业市场不算强劲，但也未疲软到足以让美联储采取降息行动的程度。
“劳动力市场正缓慢复苏，但仍在运转，”NerdWallet高级经济学家伊丽莎白·伦特在一封邮件中说道。“尽管上月就业数据显示增长强劲，但本月的数据很可能会大幅走弱。雇主们招聘意愿不强，但也不会大规模裁员。”
2026年还会降息吗？
许多经济学家预计今年晚些时候会有一次降息，要么在9月，要么在12月。
安永合伙人公司高级经济学家莉迪亚·布苏尔表示，该机构最初曾预测两次降息，但鉴于通胀背景升温，已将预期下调至一次。安永合伙人公司预计降息将在12月实施。
穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，他认为央行今年完全不会降息。他说，决定性因素将是通胀预期。
“他们陷入了困境，”他谈到美联储时说道。“他们不知道该如何应对，部分原因是目前所有事态发展都存在不确定性。”
编辑：艾梅·皮奇
Will the Fed cut interest rates? Here’s what to expect at Wednesday’s meeting.
April 28, 2026 / 6:00 AM EDT / CBS News
By Mary Cunningham
Mary Cunningham is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. She previously worked at “60 Minutes,” CBSNews.com and CBS News 24/7 as part of the CBS News Associate Program.
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The Federal Reserve will announce its third rate decision of 2026 on Wednesday, as officials confront rising inflation, a lackluster job market and what is likely to be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair.
The overwhelming consensus among economists is that the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, will hold rates steady. On Tuesday, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed a 100% probability that the Fed will keep its target rate within its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
That would mark a third consecutive pause for the Fed this year, with the central bank holding rates unchanged at both its January and March meetings as it assessed the economic impact of President Trump’s tariffs and the fallout of the Iran war. The conflict has caused energy prices to skyrocket and pushed inflation to its highest level in almost two years.
“The FOMC is likely to reiterate its wait-and-see message at its April meeting this week because the war with Iran continues to cloud the economic outlook and to present risks to both inflation and activity,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in an April 26 research note.
Powell, meanwhile, is set to step down as Fed chair when his term concludes on May 15, capping an eight-year tenure as the leader of the central bank. He’s expected to be replaced by Kevin Warsh, whose confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee was held last week.
Warsh’s path to succeed Powell has been smoothed by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s announcement Friday that her office is ending a probe of Powell over the renovation of the Fed’s Washington, D.C., headquarters. Powell had criticized the investigation as politically motivated, following President Trump’s pressure on him to cut rates.
Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, initially said he would block Warsh’s nomination until the Justice Department resolved its investigation into Powell over the renovation of the Fed’s Washington, D.C., headquarters. On Sunday, Tillis said he is prepared to move forward with Warsh’s nomination, now that the probe has ended.
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“We expect Kevin Warsh to be confirmed in time for the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting,” said EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco in an April 27 email.
Here’s what to expect at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
What time is the Fed rate decision?
The Federal Open Market Committee, the 12-member voting body that sets rates, will announce its decision on the federal funds rate on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
The announcement will be followed by a 2:30 p.m press conference led by Powell, where he will field questions about the economy and the Fed’s outlook.
What will the Fed decide?
The Fed is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, according to economists polled by FactSet. The central bank last cut rates in December 2025.
While a rate cut would lower borrowing rates for American consumers, it could also fuel inflation, something officials would want to avoid given that the war has already driven up prices. The Consumer Price Index jumped to 3.3% on an annual basis in March, the highest rate since May 2024 and well above the Fed’s target rate of 2%.
In addition to taming inflation, the Fed’s dual mandate requires it to keep the labor market at full employment. Rate cuts can help boost the labor market by making it cheaper for businesses to borrow and hire new workers. While the job market isn’t particularly strong, it’s not weak enough to convince the Fed to cut, experts noted.
“The labor market is plugging along without much steam, but it’s still plugging along,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, in an email. “Though last month’s jobs data indicated strong growth, the chances are good this month’s will be significantly weaker. Employers aren’t hiring much, but they aren’t laying people off either. “
Will there be any rate cuts in 2026?
Many economists are penciling in one rate cut for later this year, either in September or December.
EY-Parthenon initially forecast two rate cuts but scaled it back to one amid a higher inflationary backdrop, according to Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at the consulting arm of Ernst & Young. EY-Parthenon predicts the cut will come in December.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he doesn’t think the central bank will cut rates at all this year. The deciding factor, he said, will be inflation expectations.
“They’re stuck in place,” he said of the central bank. “They don’t know how to respond, in part, because of all it’s all the uncertainty with how things are playing out.”
Edited by Aimee Picchi
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