2026-04-26T09:00:52.042Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/26/politics/commodity-futures-trading-commission-shrinking-prediction-markets
如今，预测市场正蓬勃发展——任何人都可以就几乎所有事件下注，从体育赛事、选举到《幸存者》第50季的冠军得主，但监管该行业的鲜为人知的联邦机构规模已缩减至15年来的最低点。
根据最新可获取的数据，自唐纳德·特朗普总统再次就职以来，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的员工人数已减少24%，这引发了人们对该机构监管内幕交易、保护消费者能力的担忧。
此前有迹象显示交易员可能利用政府机密或内幕信息获利，包括针对美国对伊朗军事打击和泰勒·斯威夫特订婚的精准下注，议员、前官员和政府监督机构已敲响警钟。
这些担忧在上周达到顶点：联邦当局逮捕了一名参与抓捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗行动的美国特种部队士兵，据称他通过押注此次突袭获利超过40万美元。除刑事指控外，CFTC还对该士兵提起诉讼，要求其退缴违法所得、处以罚款并禁止其未来进行交易。
据报道，CFTC还正在调查特朗普宣布伊朗重大政策调整前不久发生的可疑石油期货交易。
该机构正陷入一场日益激烈的辩论，焦点是曾经鲜为人知的预测平台的未来定位——这些平台被视为金融交易所，而非在线赌场。过去一年里，这些平台的人气暴涨，目前每周交易量已达数十亿美元。
专家表示，马杜罗突袭行动中曝光的内幕交易指控只是潜在问题的冰山一角。议员、前联邦官员以及CFTC自己的监察机构都警告称，大幅裁员可能会阻碍该机构跟上行业发展步伐。
“有些裁员完全不合逻辑，”一位要求匿名以便坦率发言的CFTC前高级官员表示，“他们 targeted 了经验丰富、口碑良好的员工。真正的执法律师被解雇了，庭审律师的数量也大幅减少。”
在马杜罗突袭案指控公布前接受CNN采访时，由特朗普任命的CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格承认，他正试图填补去年由埃隆·马斯克支持的政府效率部（DOGE）造成的一些职位空缺。但他也表示，人工智能技术的进步正在简化现有员工的工作流程。
“如果存在任何人员缺口，我们正在填补这些缺口，”塞利格说，“但得益于我们对效率的重新关注以及新技术的引入，我们的运营效率比以往任何时候都更高。”
他补充道：“我们履行职责的能力不存在任何缺口。”
塞利格表示，人工智能正在帮助评估针对当前预测市场监管规则制定程序提交的公众意见。他还称，员工现在可以使用微软Copilot聊天机器人来撰写备忘录、报告和演示文稿。
此外，人工智能正在自动化CFTC的企业注册流程，而这一流程过去“一直通过电子邮件和人工操作完成”。CFTC最近的一份报告显示，申请运营与预测网站相关交易所的企业数量“创下历史新高”。
塞利格使用缩写“DRP”指代DOGE用来激励全美数千名联邦员工辞职的延期辞职计划，他表示：“利用软件和其他人工智能工具，缓解了许多因DRP计划而空缺的岗位的工作压力。”
CFTC的执法部门去年裁员幅度最大。塞利格仅向国会申请为该部门拨款雇佣108名员工，而2025年该部门的在岗人数为140人——降幅达23%。
据《巴伦周刊》报道，该机构位于芝加哥的办事处——被认为是现代期货交易的发源地——的执法律师人数从20人降至零。
本月早些时候，两党议员在塞利格就任CFTC主席后的首次听证会上向36岁的塞利格施压，询问他是否需要额外资金、更多人员或新法规来妥善监管预测市场。
塞利格的一些民主党批评者称赞他打击内幕交易的承诺，并表示可以在立法方面展开合作。但许多人并不相信CFTC拥有足够的员工来应对当前形势。
“我非常担忧他们能否为美国纳税人提供应有的CFTC监管服务，”伊利诺伊州民主党众议员尼基·布德基斯基在听证会上质询塞利格后告诉CNN，“他提到的效率，在我看来就是大规模裁员的代名词。”
布德基斯基提出了一项两党法案，禁止行政部门政治任命官员、总统、议员及其家属以及其他人员在预测网站上就政府行动下注。自塞利格听证会以来，至少又有两名民主党议员联名支持布德基斯基的这项立法。
一些民主党议员在听证会上指出，特朗普任命的监管者以可能让总统及其家属经济获利的方式支持预测市场，他们将此称为“腐败”。
特朗普的社交媒体公司已宣布计划推出自己的预测平台，而他的小儿子小唐纳德·特朗普是Kalshi的付费顾问，同时也是Polymarket的投资者，这两家是目前最受欢迎的预测网站。
特朗普政府去年批准Polymarket为美国客户提供交易服务，但其面向美国的网站尚未完全投入运营。该公司广受欢迎的国际平台不受禁止与暗杀和战争相关交易的联邦法规限制，此前因提供针对伊朗战争等生死攸关事件的下注选项而受到批评。
专家已在Polymarket上发现多起美国军事行动前可能存在内幕交易的令人担忧的案例，包括上周引发刑事指控的马杜罗突袭案。
Kalshi因一场关于伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊任期的争议性市场而退还了220万美元，哈梅内伊在战争爆发时去世，该公司如今也面临诉讼。上周，经内部调查发现，三名国会候选人在该网站上就自己的竞选活动下注，属于“政治内幕交易”，Kalshi已对其进行了处罚。
根据法律规定，这些公司需要进行自我监管，塞利格对议员们表示，这些公司是打击内幕交易的“第一道防线”。CFTC批准一家公司在美国运营预测市场交易所后，该公司需自行证明其提供的个人交易产品符合联邦法律。
CNN与Kalshi存在合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。编辑人员被禁止参与预测市场交易。
Kalshi和Polymarket的发言人拒绝为本文置评。
经过一年DOGE主导的裁员、买断和提前退休激励计划后，截至今年2月，CFTC的员工规模缩减至535人。
即使国会批准塞利格提出的4.1亿美元拨款和650个全职岗位的申请，CFTC的规模仍将小于特朗普第一任期的大部分时期。
2010年《多德-弗兰克法案》扩大了CFTC的职责范围，该法案是在金融崩盘和大萧条之后通过的。2015年，该机构员工人数突破700人峰值，2018年至2024年期间平均为670人，在乔·拜登总统任期临近结束时再次达到700人。
“他们有大量工作要做，而且不得不进行优先排序，”这位前CFTC官员说，“有些事情将得不到处理。在人员充足的情况下，他们本可以处理更多案件。”
这位前官员表示，这种情况可能会迫使CFTC通过“廉价和解”来避免耗时数年的艰苦谈判。他们指出了最近几周CFTC对加密货币交易所KuCoin处以50万美元罚款的和解案，而美国司法部就同一非法行为达成了高达2.97亿美元的更大金额和解协议。
裁员是在代理CFTC主席卡罗琳·范的任内发生的，范是共和党人，2021年由拜登提名进入两党委员会。
特朗普去年1月将范提拔为代理主席。在任期间，她的X账号上充斥着特朗普式言论。她曾吹嘘“重大”公告，分享自己头戴印有“让CFTC再次伟大”的红色MAGA帽子的照片，还转发了马斯克和DOGE的支持信息。
范没有回应CNN的多次置评请求。塞利格获得共和党控制的参议院确认后，她于去年12月离开CFTC。
“我亲身经历过，人员需求往往决定了工作的优先级，”曾与CFTC合作处理金融案件的前联邦检察官诺亚·索洛维耶奇克说，“他们是否有足够的执法人员来真正处理这一问题，这是一个实实在在的问题。”
监督CFTC的委员会人员也严重不足，这家独立联邦机构目前5个席位中有4个空缺。
众议院民主党人在最近的塞利格听证会上指出，根据联邦法律，该委员会应由总统提名的5名成员组成，其中2名来自少数党。特朗普尚未进行任何任命。
“这是总统的决定，”塞利格告诉CNN，“我愿意且乐于与总统选择任命的任何人合作，无论是5名委员还是其他情况。这些决定由总统来定。”
白宫没有回应CNN关于职位空缺的置评请求。
周四马杜罗相关内幕交易起诉公布后，特朗普对记者表示：“不幸的是，整个世界已经有点像个赌场了。”
上个月，白宫警告工作人员不要利用政府工作中获取的信息在预测市场进行内幕交易。白宫发言人此前曾表示，“任何在没有证据的情况下暗示政府官员参与（内幕交易）的说法都是毫无根据且不负责任的报道。”
在回应众议院民主党人的质询时，塞利格多次表示，CFTC对内幕交易“零容忍”，即使内幕交易来自共和党人、白宫或特朗普家族。
“我认为我们可以与他合作，”弗吉尼亚州民主党众议员尤金·文德曼在接受CNN采访时表示，“但在使命不断扩大之际裁员并不是个好主意。这正在造成真正的漏洞。”
对于该领域的一些专家来说，这些挑战是可以预见的。
拜登政府时期的民主党CFTC主席罗斯汀·贝纳姆在2024年就曾警示体育和选举预测市场的风险。在启动一项禁止此类产品的联邦规则制定程序时，贝纳姆警告称，这将“把CFTC推到超出其国会授权和专业能力的位置”。
塞利格在上任六周后的今年2月撤销了这项拟议规则。
As prediction markets explode in popularity, the regulator that polices them has been shrinking
2026-04-26T09:00:52.042Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/26/politics/commodity-futures-trading-commission-shrinking-prediction-markets
While prediction markets are booming – allowing anyone to bet on nearly everything from sports to elections to who’s going to win season 50 of “Survivor” – the little-known federal agency that regulates the industry has shrunk to its smallest size in 15 years.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission workforce has dropped by 24% since President Donald Trump returned to office, according to the latest available data, raising concerns about its ability to police insider trading and protect consumers.
Lawmakers, former officials and government watchdogs have sounded the alarm after seeing well-timed bets about US military strikes against Iran and Taylor Swift’s engagement that suggested traders may have cashed in on government secrets or insider information.
Those worries came to a head last week, when federal authorities arrested a US special forces soldier who was involved in the operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, and allegedly profited more than $400,000 by betting about the raid. In addition to criminal charges, the CFTC sued the soldier to secure restitution, impose penalties and ban him from future trading.
The CFTC is also reportedly investigating suspicious oil futures trades that were made shortly before Trump announced major policy changes regarding Iran.
The agency is at the center of an increasingly fierce debate over the future of once-obscure prediction platforms, which are treated like financial exchanges rather than online casinos. They have exploded in popularity over the past year, and now see billions of dollars in weekly trading volume.
The landmark insider-trading charges from the Maduro raid only scratch the surface of the potential problem, experts say. Lawmakers, former federal officials and the CFTC’s own watchdog have warned that deep staffing cuts could hobble the agency as it tries to keep pace.
“There were cuts that were not exactly logical,” said a former top CFTC official, who asked to remain anonymous to speak candidly. “They targeted people who were experienced and well-regarded. Real enforcement lawyers were fired. And there was a major reduction in trial attorneys.”
In an interview with CNN before the Maduro raid charges were announced, the Trump-appointed CFTC chair Michael Selig acknowledged he’s trying to fill some vacancies that were created last year by the Elon Musk-backed Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. But he also said advances in artificial intelligence are streamlining the work for the remaining employees.
“To the extent there are any gaps, we’re filling those gaps,” Selig said. “But thanks to our renewed focus on efficiency, and bringing on new technologies, we are operating more effectively and efficiently than we ever have before.”
He added: “There are no gaps in our ability to fulfill our mission.”
Selig said AI is helping evaluate public comments submitted for the ongoing rulemaking about prediction markets. He also said staffers can now use the Microsoft Copilot chatbot to develop memos, reports and presentations.
In addition, AI is automating the process for companies registering with the CFTC, which has traditionally been “done through email and manual processes,” Selig said. Corporate applications to run exchanges tied to prediction sites are “historically high,” according to a recent CFTC report.
“Utilizing software and other AI tools has taken a bit of pressure off many of the positions that are no longer filled due to the DRP,” Selig said, using an acronym for the deferred resignation program that DOGE used to incentivize thousands of federal workers across the US government to quit their jobs.
The CFTC’s enforcement division saw some of the steepest drops last year. And Selig has only asked Congress to fund 108 employees in that area, compared to 140 filled positions in 2025 — which would be a 23% reduction.
The agency’s office in Chicago — considered the birthplace of modern futures trading — fell from 20 enforcement lawyers to zero, Barron’s reported.
Lawmakers from both parties pressed Selig, 36, earlier this month at his first hearing as CFTC chair, on whether he needs additional funding, more staffing or new laws to properly oversee prediction markets.
Some of Selig’s Democratic critics praised his pledge to crack down on insider trading and said they could work together on legislation. But many weren’t convinced that the CFTC has enough employees to meet the moment.
“I have deep concerns around the ability they’ll have to provide the proper oversight that taxpayers in this country deserve from the CFTC,” Rep. Nikki Budzinski, an Illinois Democrat, told CNN after questioning Selig at the hearing. “He referred to efficiencies, which to me, is code for mass layoffs.”
Budzinski proposed a bipartisan bill to ban executive branch political appointees, the president, lawmakers, their families and others from betting on government actions on prediction sites. Since the Selig hearing, at least two more Democratic lawmakers have signed onto Budzinski’s legislation.
Some Democrats used the hearing to highlight what they called the “corruption” of how Trump-appointed regulators are supporting prediction markets in ways that could financially benefit the president and his family.
Trump’s social media company has announced plans to launch its own prediction platform, and his son Donald Trump Jr. is a paid adviser to Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket, the two most popular prediction sites.
The Trump administration approved Polymarket last year to start offering trades for American customers, but its US-facing site isn’t fully operational yet. Its highly popular international platform – unfettered by federal regulations that prohibit trading related to assassination and war – has been criticized for offering bets about life-and-death matters like the Iran war.
Experts have identified numerous alarming examples of possible insider trading on Polymarket before US military action, including the Maduro raid that led to criminal charges last week.
Kalshi issued $2.2 million in refunds and now faces lawsuits after a disputed market about the tenure of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the start of the war. And three congressional candidates engaged in “political insider trading” on the site by betting on their own races, which Kalshi found and punished last week after an internal probe.
The companies are required by law to self-regulate, and Selig told lawmakers that the companies are the “first line of defense” to stop insider trading. After the CFTC approves a company to run a prediction market exchange in the US, the company self-certifies that its individual offerings comply with federal law.
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. Editorial employees are prohibited from participating in prediction markets.
Spokespeople for Kalshi and Polymarket declined to comment for this story.
After a year of DOGE’s layoffs, buyout offers, and early retirement incentives, the agency shrank to 535 by February.
Even if Congress granted Selig’s request for $410 million and 650 full-time jobs, the CFTC would still be smaller than during most of Trump’s first term.
The CFTC’s mission was expanded by the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, passed in the wake of the financial meltdown and Great Recession. Staffing peaked above 700 in 2015 before falling to an average of 670 from 2018 to 2024 and hitting 700 again near the end of President Joe Biden’s term.
“They’re going to have a lot of work to do, and they are going to have to triage,” the former CFTC official said. “Some stuff will go unaddressed. They won’t be able to pursue as many matters as they would’ve at full strength.”
The former official said this dynamic could force the CFTC to avoid arduous and potentially yearslong lengthy negotiations by “settling on the cheap.” They pointed to a case against KuCoin, a cryptocurrency exchange, that the CFTC settled in recent weeks for $500,000. The Justice Department secured a much larger $297 million deal regarding the same illegal conduct.
The workforce cuts occurred under acting CFTC chair Caroline Pham, a Republican who was nominated by Biden in 2021 to serve on the bipartisan commission.
Trump elevated Pham to acting chair last January. In that role, she filled her X feed with Trumpisms. She once touted a “yuge” announcement, shared a photo of herself wearing a red MAGA hat that said, “Make CFTC Great Again,” and also re-posted a supportive message from Musk and DOGE.
Pham didn’t respond to multiple requests from CNN for comment. She left the CFTC in December when Selig was confirmed by the GOP-run Senate.
“I personally experienced that staffing needs often dictate what is prioritized and what is not,” said Noah Solowiejczyk, a former federal prosecutor who worked with the CFTC on financial cases. “There are real questions as to whether they have enough staff in enforcement to really handle this issue.”
The commission that oversees the CFTC is depleted, with four of five seats currently vacant at the independent federal agency.
House Democrats pointed out at Selig’s recent hearing that under federal law, the commission is supposed to have five members nominated by the president, with two from the minority party. Trump hasn’t made any appointments.
“It’s the president’s decision,” Selig told CNN. “I’m willing and happy to work with whoever the president chooses to appoint, whether that’s five commissioners or whatever else. I leave those decisions to the president.”
The White House did not respond to CNN’s request for comment about the vacancies.
After the Maduro-related insider trading indictment was announced Thursday, Trump told reporters that, “The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.”
Last month, the White House warned staff against insider trading on prediction markets with information from their government jobs. A White House spokesman previously said, “any implication that Administration officials are engaged in (insider trading) without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
In response to questions from House Democrats, Selig repeatedly said the CFTC has “zero tolerance” for insider trading, even if it were to come from Republicans, the White House or the Trump family.
“I think he is somebody we can work with,” Rep. Eugene Vindman, a Virginia Democrat, told CNN in an interview. “But cutting staff at a time when the mission is growing is not a good idea. This is creating real vulnerabilities.”
For some experts in this space, these challenges were foreseeable.
The Democratic CFTC chair under Biden, Rostin Behnam, flagged the risks of sports and election markets in 2024. While initiating a federal rulemaking process to outlaw these products, Behnam warned they would “push the CFTC … into a position far beyond its Congressional mandate and expertise.”
Selig withdrew that proposed rule in February, six weeks after taking over.
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