2026年4月3日 美国东部时间下午4:07 / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
亚伦·布雷克 分析报道
2026年4月3日 美国东部时间下午5:35 更新
凯文·拉马克/路透社
2026年3月7日，唐纳德·特朗普总统与国防部长皮特·赫格斯瑟同乘空军一号，从特拉华州多佛飞往佛罗里达州迈阿密途中向记者发表讲话。
一场原本就已在美国民众中极不受欢迎的伊朗战争，如今进入了一个更棘手的新阶段。导火索是美军一架战斗机在伊朗上空被击落的消息。
目前仍有诸多细节不明，包括两名机组人员的下落。CNN此前曾报道其中一人已获救并接受治疗，但另一人的命运尚未可知。
紧接着又有消息称，伊朗于周五击中了第二架美军作战飞机。飞行员成功将飞机驶离伊朗领空后弹射逃生，随后获救，一名美国官员告诉CNN。
这两起事件并不意味着伊朗突然在军事上与美国旗鼓相当。到目前为止，美军伤亡人数有限，过去三周内尚无已知人员死亡。
但在这场美军以军事优势为核心竞争力的冲突中，此次事件凸显了非对称战争的风险，而美国民众早已不愿为这场战争付出代价。
这些事件同时打破了特朗普政府关于其完全掌控伊朗上空制空权的宣称，以及过去一个月来他们试图营造的坚不可摧的假象。
这些宣称此前已在多起事件中被打脸。而此次事件正是绝佳例证。
唐纳德·特朗普总统与国防部长皮特·赫格斯瑟曾暗示，美国与以色列几乎可以不受限制地飞越伊朗领空，并称德黑兰根本无力抵抗。
在3月4日的简报会上——也就是近一个月前——赫格斯瑟称制空权即将到手。
“从昨晚开始，不到一周内就能全部完成，世界上两支最强大的空军将完全掌控伊朗领空，”赫格斯瑟说道。他将此称为“无争议空域”。
“伊朗对此无能为力，”他补充道。
特朗普在过去两周内也多次宣扬这一空域优势。
“我们的战机确实在德黑兰和伊朗其他地区上空飞行，他们根本束手无策，”他在3月24日说道。他还补充称，美国可以袭击发电厂，“他们对此毫无办法。”
特朗普数周来一直声称伊朗“没有海军”“没有军队”“没有空军”以及“没有防空系统”。在周三晚间的白宫讲话中，他表示可以袭击伊朗的石油设施，“他们完全无能为力。”
“他们没有防空装备。他们的雷达已被100%摧毁，”特朗普说道。“作为一支军事力量，我们不可阻挡。”
当然，在数千架次飞行任务中仅发生两起战机被击落事件。
本届政府也曾偶尔强调战争会出现挫折，包括人员伤亡。赫格斯瑟在3月4日的同一场简报会上也承认，可能会出现“几架无人机突破防线或发生悲剧性事件”的情况。
但政府关于其空中军事优势的宣称极为绝对，使用了“完全掌控”和“无争议空域”等措辞，甚至称伊朗甚至没有必要的反击武器。
而这不过是特朗普及其身边人士明显夸大军事成就的最新一例。
去年6月袭击伊朗核设施后，特朗普多次表示伊朗的核计划已被“摧毁”，并称该计划已无法恢复。但美国早期情报评估并非如此。果不其然，仅仅九个月后，政府又突然将伊朗描绘成迫在眉睫的核威胁。
战争开始后不久，特朗普 falsely 指责伊朗袭击了一所小学，而根据初步调查和其他证据，我们后来得知这起袭击很可能是美军所为。
就在一天前，CNN还报道称，特朗普关于摧毁伊朗导弹发射架的言论被严重夸大，伊斯兰革命卫队仍保留了约一半的导弹作战能力。
所有这些言论带来的政治问题在于，美军的所谓成功本应是本届政府的主要政绩。
美国人对此次军事行动几乎没有信心。他们认为政府没有解释清楚作战目的。所谓的四大作战目标一直在不断调整。而最大的问题或许是霍尔木兹海峡实际关闭导致汽油价格上涨，引发了民众对经济的悲观情绪。美国人就是认为这场战争不值得付出代价。
自始至终，尤其是赫格斯瑟一直在辩称，媒体低估了这场军事行动的成功。
“这正是假新闻所忽略的，”他在3月4日的简报会上说道。“我们不费一兵一卒就掌控了伊朗的领空和航道。”
一个月后，这条至关重要的航道仍存在重大例外。而掌控伊朗领空、摧毁伊朗导弹发射计划的进展，并不像宣传的那样彻底。
本文已更新补充最新进展。
Downed jets puncture Trump’s and Hegseth’s claims of air invulnerability
2026-04-03 4:07 PM ET / CNN
Analysis by Aaron Blake
Updated 5:35 PM ET Apr 3, 2026
President Donald Trump, with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at his side, looks on as he speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One on a flight from Dover, Delaware, to Miami, Florida, on March 7, 2026.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
An Iran war that was already proving quite unpopular with the American people has entered a new, more problematic phase. That comes with the news that a US fighter jet was shot down over Iran.
There remains a lot we don’t know, including the status of the two crew members. While CNN has reported one of them has been rescued and is receiving medical treatment, we don’t know the fate of the other.
And that was followed by news that Iran hit a second US combat aircraft on Friday. The pilot was able to navigate the plane out of Iranian territory before ejecting from the aircraft and was subsequently rescued, a US official told CNN.
Neither of these incidents means Iran is suddenly on anything close to an equal footing militarily. And there have thus far been limited American casualties, including no known deaths in the last three weeks.
But in a conflict in which military dominance is the US’ chief advantage, this episode underscores the perils of asymmetric warfare, the costs of which the American public already isn’t buying.
These events also puncture the Trump administration’s claims about its complete dominance of the skies over Iran — along with the veneer of impenetrability it has attempted to construct over the past month.
Those claims had already been contradicted in a number of cases. But this is a case in point.
President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have suggested the United States and Israel had something amounting to free rein to fly over Iran. They cast Tehran as having no ability to counteract that.
At a March 4 briefing — nearly a full month ago — Hegseth said that such dominance was just around the corner.
“Starting last night, and to be completed in a few days in under a week, the two most powerful air forces in the world will have complete control of Iranian skies,” Hegseth said. He called it “uncontested airspace.”
“And Iran will be able to do nothing about it,” he added.
Trump has also played up this air dominance over the past two weeks.
“And we literally have planes flying over Tehran and other parts of their country; they can’t do a thing about it,” he said on March 24. He added that the United States could strike a power plant, and “they can’t do a thing about it.”
The president has said for weeks that Iran had “no navy,” “no military,” “no air force” and “no anti-aircraft systems.” In a White House address Wednesday night, he said he could hit Iran’s oil facilities, “and there’s not a thing they could do about it.
“They have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated,” Trump said. “We are unstoppable as a military force.”
Again, these are two downed planes out of thousands.
The administration has occasionally emphasized that there would be setbacks, including losses of life. And Hegseth in the same March 4 briefing acknowledged situations in which “a few drones get through or tragic things happen.”
But the administration’s claims about its military dominance in the skies have been absolutist, with phrases like “complete control” and “uncontested airspace,” even casting Iran as not even having the weaponry necessary to respond.
And it’s merely the latest example of Trump and those around him apparently exaggerating military success.
After the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, Trump repeatedly said the country’s nuclear program had been “obliterated” and cast it as irretrievable. Except that’s not what an early US intelligence assessment showed. And sure enough, just nine months later, the administration again suddenly pitched Iran as an imminent nuclear threat.
Shortly after the war began, Trump falsely blamed Iran for a strike on an elementary school that we later learned was likely struck by the United States, according to a preliminary investigation and other evidence.
And just a day ago, CNN reported that Trump’s claims about the destruction of Iran’s missile launchers had been greatly exaggerated — and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still retains about half of its capabilities.
The political problem with all of this is that the US military success is supposed to be the main thing that the administration has going for it.
Americans have little faith in the mission. They don’t think it’s been explained. The list of four objectives has constantly shifted. And perhaps the biggest problem is economic pessimism resulting from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent rising gas prices. Americans just don’t think the war is worth the costs.
Through it all, Hegseth in particular has argued that the media has given short shrift to the military success of the campaign.
“This is what the fake news misses,” he said in that same March 4 briefing. “We’ve taken control of Iran’s airspace and waterways without boots on the ground.”
A month later, the most crucial waterway remains a very important exception. And the control of Iran’s airspace and the demise of its missile launching program aren’t looking as complete as advertised.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
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