2026年4月3日 / 美国东部时间下午5:35 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：艾梅·皮奇
芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯汀·古尔斯比认为，伊朗战争有推高通胀的风险，这将使美国央行更难在2026年降息。
古尔斯比强调，他的言论仅代表个人观点，并不代表美联储整体立场。他在接受CBS新闻采访时表示，在这场冲突爆发前，他曾有信心美联储今年能够下调基准利率。但随着战争推高石油和燃油价格，这种乐观情绪已经消退。
“在战争爆发、石油冲击出现之前，我在利率问题上一直持乐观态度——我认为2026年降息的次数甚至可能达到数次，”古尔斯比说道。
他表示：“能源冲击让局势变得复杂——如果我们真的看不到通胀有任何改善，那么在我看来，降息决策最早也要推迟到2027年。”
由于伊朗战争带来的经济不确定性加剧，美联储在3月维持联邦基金利率——即银行间短期贷款的利率——不变。尽管政策制定者仍预计2026年将降息一次，但自那以来，能源成本持续上涨，周五的平均汽油价格达到每加仑4.09美元，比战争爆发前高出1美元以上。
2026年，古尔斯比担任联邦公开市场委员会的五名候补委员之一。该委员会是美联储的利率制定机构。根据美联储的信息，他可以参与讨论并参与经济评估，并将于2027年轮换成为委员会的投票委员。
私营部门经济学家也在下调对今年降息的预测，原因是高油价可能重新推高通胀。在伊朗战争爆发前，通胀率一直远高于美联储2%的年度目标。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch）基于30天联邦基金期货价格计算降息概率，目前预测美联储在2026年不会进行任何一次降息。
根据FactSet调查的经济学家预测，将于4月10日发布的下一份消费者价格指数报告可能会显示，3月物价同比上涨3.1%，高于2月2.4%的涨幅。
古尔斯比在接受CBS新闻采访时表示，能源价格上涨给家庭预算带来的压力可能会破坏消费者支出。他补充道，即使在战争爆发前，许多美国人就已经感到经济拮据，而油价的大幅上涨可能会导致一些人缩减其他领域的开支。
“你会开始看到这种情况拖累消费者，但这不是立即发生的，而是在近期内，”他说。“人们只会对价格感到震惊——民众已经非常担忧负担能力和生活成本，这只会让情况雪上加霜。”
消费者支出一直是“我们经济增长的支柱”，古尔斯比说道，并补充道，成本上涨给家庭带来的压力“危及了此次经济繁荣的持续性”。
古尔斯比还担心，伊朗战争带来的经济不确定性可能会蔓延至劳动力市场。上周五公布的数据显示，3月就业增长强于预期，上月新增就业岗位17.8万个。美国劳工部将2月的就业报告下调至减少13.3万个工作岗位，高于最初报告的9.2万个工作岗位的降幅。
劳动力市场被描述为“低招聘、低裁员”，这意味着尽管企业招聘意愿不强，但也不会进行大规模裁员。古尔斯比表示，当前劳动力市场的状态可能源于经济不确定性。
“我认为这种局面源于太多的不确定性。我在中西部地区接触到的大多数企业都表示，他们正处于观望状态，直到局势明朗——无论是地缘政治和石油价格，还是关税，以及利率最终会稳定在什么水平，”古尔斯比说道。
编辑：阿兰·谢特
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sees inflation from Iran war as risk to 2026 rate cuts
April 3, 2026 / 5:35 PM EDT / CBS News
By Aimee Picchi
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee thinks that the Iran war risks fueling inflation, which would make it harder for the central bank to ease interest rates in 2026.
Goolsbee — who emphasized he was speaking for himself and not for the Federal Reserve as a whole — told CBS News that, before the start of the conflict, he was confident the Fed could cut its benchmark rate this year. But that optimism has waned as the war drives up oil and fuel prices.
“Before the war, before we got the oil shock, I’ve been on the optimistic side of the rate — I believed rates could come down even multiple times in 2026,” Goolsbee said.
The energy shock “complicates that picture for me — that if we’re truly not going to see any improvement in inflation, to me that starts pushing these decisions off to 2027 at the earliest,” he said.
The Fed in March left the federal funds rate — what banks charge each other for short-term loans — unchanged because of mounting economic uncertainty amid the Iran war, although policymakers indicated they still expected to cut rates once in 2026. Since then, energy costs have continued to rise, with the average price of gasoline hitting $4.09 a gallon on Friday, more than $1 higher than before the war.
In 2026, Goolsbee is serving as one of five alternate members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s rate-setting panel. He participates in discussions and contributes to economic assessments, and is slated to rotate onto the committee as a voting member in 2027, according to the Fed.
Private economists are also paring their forecasts for interest rate cuts this year due to the risk that higher oil and fuel prices will reignite inflation, which remained well above the Fed’s 2% annual target before the Iran war began. CME FedWatch, which bases the probability of rate cuts based on 30-Day Fed funds futures prices, now predicts that the Fed won’t issue a single rate cut in 2026.
The next Consumer Price Index report, set to be released on April 10, is likely to show that March prices rose at a 3.1% annual pace, accelerating from February’s 2.4% rate, according to economists polled by FactSet.
Pressure on household budgets from higher energy prices could threaten to derail consumer spending, Goolsbee told CBS News. Even before the war, many Americans were feeling pinched financially, and coping with the sharp increase in gas prices could cause some to pull back on spending in other areas, he added.
“It’s in the near term, but not immediate, that you would start to see that weighing down the consumer,” he said. “They would just get sticker shock — people were already highly concerned about affordability and the cost of living, and this would just be piling onto it.”
Consumer spending has been “the backbone of our growth,” Goolsbee said, adding that the pressure on households from higher costs “endangers the extended nature of this boom.”
Goolsbee also worries that economic uncertainty arising from the Iran war could spill over into the labor market, which on Friday posted stronger-than-expected March gains, with 178,000 new jobs created last month. The Labor Department revised February’s payrolls report lower to a loss of 133,000 jobs, larger than the 92,000 decline originally reported.
The labor market has been described as “low hire, low fire,” meaning that while companies aren’t doing much hiring, they also aren’t making large layoffs. Economic uncertainty is likely behind the current state of the labor market, Goolsbee said.
“I think that combination comes from so much uncertainty. Most of the businesses that I’m out here talking to in the Midwest say they’re a little bit sitting on their hands until they get some resolution, whether it’s geopolitical and the price of oil or tariffs, and what the rates are going to settle down to,” Goolsbee said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
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