2026-04-01T12:44:27-04:00 / 福克斯新闻频道
专家警告：战争与和平的真正决定权掌握在与伊斯兰革命卫队有关联的人物手中
作者：埃弗拉特·拉赫特 福克斯新闻
发布于2026年4月1日 美国东部夏令时下午12:44
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6392341390112
特朗普总统暗示美国将在两到三周内结束对伊朗行动
唐纳德·特朗普总统周二表示，他认为美国将在两到三周内结束对伊朗的军事打击。（图片来源：白宫 via YouTube）
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唐纳德·特朗普总统周三暗示伊朗可能在寻求停火，但分析师表示，真正的权力掌握在伊斯兰革命卫队内部的强硬派人物手中，其中包括新近崭露头角的指挥官艾哈迈德·瓦希迪。
特朗普并未提及他所指的伊朗人物，但他的言论很可能指向伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安，他写道：“伊朗的新政权总统远比其前任温和，也更聪明，刚刚向美利坚合众国请求停火！我们将在霍尔木兹海峡开放、自由且畅通无阻时予以考虑。在此之前，我们将把伊朗炸回石器时代，或者正如他们所说，炸回史前时代！”
然而，专家警告称，伊朗总统无权掌控战争与和平的决策。
“他显然没有权力开启或结束与美国的重大军事冲突，”国防民主基金会高级研究员本哈姆·本·塔布卢在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时表示。
特朗普的伊朗战略展现出“不可预测性原则”，伴随打击威胁与突然暂停
伊朗内政部长艾哈迈德·瓦希迪在2024年3月4日德黑兰议会选举后的新闻发布会上发言。（马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/西亚新闻通讯社 路透社供稿）
分析师表示，真正的权力反而掌握在与伊斯兰革命卫队有关联的高级人物手中，包括瓦希迪、议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫以及安全官员穆罕默德·佐尔格达尔，这些人都在相互重叠的影响力中心运作。
外界的注意力正转向这位被视为幕后操纵极端主义势力的新反恐负责人瓦希迪——这位长期担任伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官的人物重新崛起，凸显了伊朗领导层内部正在发生的更广泛转变。
以色列国家安全研究所伊朗问题专家贝尼·萨布蒂警告称，即便伊朗表现出对“停火”的兴趣，也可能不符合西方对该术语的理解。
他提到了“侯达纳”（hudna）的概念，将其描述为“带有欺骗性的停火——他们在虚弱时停战，重建实力后再次发动攻击，无论是针对以色列还是美国”。
萨布蒂补充道，这种停火可能会演变成“永无止境的暴力循环”，其背后是意识形态动机，不应被解读为敌对行动的真正终结。
伊斯兰革命卫队圣城旅指挥官艾哈迈德·瓦希迪、伊斯梅尔·卡阿尼以及伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）圣城旅副协调员伊拉吉·马杰迪，于2025年7月25日在伊朗德黑兰一座清真寺内参加纪念前伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官侯赛in·萨拉米的仪式，后者在以色列袭击中身亡。（莫尔塔扎·尼库巴扎尔/努拉图片 盖蒂图片社供稿）
从秘密行动到全球打击
这种不确定性的核心人物是新任伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官瓦希迪。
“他是一个极其暴力的人，属于在游击战中作战的一代，”萨布蒂告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。
萨布蒂将瓦希迪描述为早期伊朗特工骨干的一员，这些特工在1979年革命前后就与黎巴嫩境内的激进组织建立了联系，这些关系后来成为伊朗地区战略的核心。有资料显示，瓦希迪曾在黎巴嫩南部与巴勒斯坦和黎巴嫩派系有关联的营地接受训练，为伊朗与黎巴嫩恐怖组织真主党长期结盟奠定了基础。
不占领伊朗就能摧毁该政权的实力：更明智的战争计划
伊朗议会议长穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫2026年2月1日在德黑兰出席议会会议时，议员们身着军装高呼支持伊斯兰革命卫队。（哈米德·马勒克普尔/伊斯兰协商会议新闻社 西亚新闻通讯社 路透社供图）
瓦希迪在伊斯兰革命卫队中步步高升，并于20世纪90年代出任其精英部队圣城旅指挥官，该部队负责海外行动。
他被指与伊朗支持的网络在海外发动的一些最致命袭击有关联，包括1992年阿根廷以色列大使馆爆炸案以及1994年布宜诺斯艾利斯AMIA犹太社区中心爆炸案。
萨布蒂表示，9·11袭击事件后，瓦希迪还被指控与基地组织成员保持联系，这印证了他所说的伊朗愿意与针对西方和以色列利益的组织合作的说法。
尽管后来担任了看似政治或行政职位，萨布蒂表示，瓦希迪从未真正脱离革命卫队——伊朗强大的军事和情报部门，这意味着他的角色仍与政权的安全和行动机构紧密相关。
“他始终是革命卫队的一员——即便身着制服，”他说。“这在伊朗很常见。即便他们进入政坛，也仍隶属于该部队。”
萨布蒂还指出，瓦希迪据称在1979年伊斯兰革命后参与镇压伊朗西北部的库尔德起义，凸显了他长期参与国内安全行动。
赫格斯泰特透露秘密探访参与“史诗之怒”行动的部队
一张合成图片展示了美国国务院“正义悬赏”计划中列出的数名伊朗领导人，该计划为提供与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）有关联的关键人物信息的举报人提供最高1000万美元赏金，包括左上角的穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。（国务院/正义悬赏计划；霍希拉兰/中东图片社/法新社 盖蒂图片社供稿）
由权力驱动，而非职位
瓦希迪重新获得权势之际，伊朗内部结构似乎日益碎片化，权力集中在相互重叠甚至相互竞争的网络中。
“目前尚不清楚伊朗伊斯兰共和国政府的军事或政治行动有多协调，”本·塔布卢说。
他将伊朗描述为“由人组成的体系，而非法治体系”，在该体系中，个人关系和非正式影响力往往超过正式头衔。
随着战争持续，这种态势愈发明显。
“我们看到伊斯兰革命卫队在众多伊朗政治和安全机构中崛起，”他说。
“伊斯兰革命卫队的崛起意味着伊朗共和国将变得更加粗野，但与此同时，该政权的军事能力也比以往任何时候都弱，”他补充道。
权力更大，约束更少
萨布蒂表示，瓦希迪如今可能比德黑兰其他知名人物更具影响力，包括议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫以及最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊的儿子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。
“在我看来，他目前更具主导地位，即便他们相互协调。现在不是内部竞争的时候，”萨布蒂说。
他警告称，瓦希迪的崛起可能会进一步强化伊朗的强硬立场。
“他为体系带来了更极端的倾向，可能并不想停止战争，因为继续战争符合伊斯兰革命卫队的利益，”萨布蒂说。
“如果美国妥协，他们就能成为该地区的霸主——这完全符合他的利益。”
特朗普暗示伊朗寻求停火的说法引发了人们对潜在外交突破的希望，但专家警告称，此类信号可能并未反映伊朗内部的统一立场。
“问题在于，向特朗普总统传递的信息是真实的，还是只是某个野心勃勃的人的权宜之计？”本·塔布卢说。
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伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安2024年9月16日在德黑兰出席新闻发布会。（西亚新闻通讯社/马吉德·阿斯加里普尔 路透社供稿）
“佩泽什基安显然没有权力开启或结束与美国的重大军事冲突，”本·塔布卢说。
这留下了一种可能性，即任何外交接触都可能是战术性的、分散的，甚至是相互矛盾的。
福克斯新闻数字频道已联系白宫置评，但未能在发稿前收到回复。
埃弗拉特·拉赫特是福克斯新闻数字频道负责国际事务和联合国事务的驻外记者。在X平台关注她@efratlachter。新闻线索可发送至efrat.lachter@fox.com。
Iran’s ceasefire push may be a ‘cycle of deception,’ analysts warn as shadowy figure gains power
2026-04-01T12:44:27-04:00 / Fox News
Real authority over war and peace lies with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked figures, experts warn
By Efrat Lachter Fox News
Published April 1, 2026 12:44pm EDT
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6392341390112
President Trump suggests US will finish in Iran in two to 3 weeks
President Donald Trump indicated on Tuesday that he thinks the U.S. will finish its attacks on Iran in two to three weeks. (Credit: The White House via YouTube)
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President Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that Iran may be seeking a ceasefire, but analysts say real power lies with hardline figures inside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including newly prominent Commander Ahmad Vahidi.
Trump did not name the Iranian figure he was referring to, but his comment likely pointed to President Masoud Pezeshkian, writing: “Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!”
Experts caution, however, that Iran’s president does not control decisions of war and peace.
“He clearly does not have the authority to turn on or turn off a major military conflict with the United States,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
TRUMP’S IRAN STRATEGY SHOWCASES ‘DOCTRINE OF UNPREDICTABILITY’ AMID STRIKE THREATS AND SUDDEN PAUSE
Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi speaks during a press conference after the parliamentary elections in Tehran, Iran, March 4, 2024.(Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
Instead, analysts say real power lies with senior figures tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Vahidi, Parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and security official Mohammad Zolghadr, all of whom operate within overlapping centers of influence.
Attention is turning to the new terror chief seen as an extremist pulling strings, Vahidi — a longtime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander whose reemergence highlights a broader shift underway inside Iran’s leadership.
Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, warned that even when Iran signals interest in a “ceasefire,” it may not reflect a Western understanding of the term.
He pointed to the concept of “hudna,” describing it as “a ceasefire with deception — they stop when they are weak, rebuild their strength, and then attack again, whether against Israel or the United States.”
Sabti added that such pauses can become “a cycle of violence that does not end,” driven by ideological motivations, and should not be interpreted as a genuine end to hostilities.
Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, and Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Coordinator of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, participate in a ceremony to mark the memory of former IRGC commander, Hossein Salami, who is killed in Israeli attacks, at a mosque in an IRGC organizational house complex in Tehran, Iran, on July 25, 2025.(Morteza Nikoubazl/Nur Photo via Getty Images)
From covert operations to global attacks
At the center of that uncertainty is Vahidi, the new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander.
“He is a very violent man and belongs to a generation that fought in guerrilla warfare,” Sabti told Fox News Digital.
Sabti described Vahidi as part of an early cadre of Iranian operatives who built ties with militant groups in Lebanon before and after the 1979 revolution, relationships that later became central to Iran’s regional strategy. Some accounts suggest Vahidi trained in camps linked to Palestinian and Lebanese factions in southern Lebanon, helping lay the groundwork for Iran’s long-standing alliance with Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah.
DESTROY THE REGIME’S POWER WITHOUT OCCUPYING IRAN: A SMARTER WAR PLAN
Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf looks on as Parliament members chant in support of the IRGC while wearing military uniforms in Tehran, Iran, Feb 1, 2026.(Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)
Vahidi rose through the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and went on to serve as commander of its elite Quds Force in the 1990s, a unit responsible for overseas operations.
He has been linked to some of the deadliest attacks attributed to Iranian-backed networks abroad, including the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina and the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.
Sabti said Vahidi was also accused of maintaining connections with al Qaeda figures following the Sept. 11 attacks, reflecting what he described as Iran’s willingness to cooperate with groups targeting Western and Israeli interests.
Despite later holding positions that appeared political or bureaucratic, Sabti said Vahidi never truly stepped away from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s powerful military and intelligence arm, meaning his role remained closely tied to the regime’s security and operational apparatus.
“He always remained part of the Revolutionary Guards — even wearing uniform,” he said. “That’s common in Iran. Even when they move into politics, they stay within the force.”
Sabti also pointed to Vahidi’s alleged role in suppressing Kurdish uprisings in northwestern Iran in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, underscoring his longstanding involvement in internal security operations.
HEGSETH REVEALS COVERT VISIT TO TROOPS FIGHTING IN OPERATION EPIC FURY
A composite image shows several Iranian leaders named in the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program offering up to $10 million for information on key figures tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, top left.(State Department / Rewards for Justice; Khoshiran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
A system driven by power, not position
Vahidi’s renewed prominence comes as Iran’s internal structure appears increasingly fragmented, with authority concentrated in overlapping and sometimes competing networks.
“It’s not clear how coordinated either the military or political actions of the government of the Islamic Republic is today,” Ben Taleblu said.
He described Iran as “a system of men, not a system of laws,” where personal ties and informal influence often outweigh formal titles.
That dynamic has intensified as the war continues.
“We are seeing the IRGC ascendancy… across a host of Iranian political and security institutions,” he said.
“This IRGC ascendancy will mean a more crass Islamic Republic, but it comes at a time when this regime is militarily less capable than ever before,” he added.
More power, less restraint
Sabti said Vahidi may now be more influential than other prominent figures in Tehran, including parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
“In my view, he is more dominant right now, even if they are coordinated. This is not a time for internal competition,” Sabti said.
He warned that Vahidi’s rise could further harden Iran’s posture.
“He brings even more radicalization into the system and may not want to stop the war, because it serves the interests of the Revolutionary Guards to continue,” Sabti said.
“They could become masters of the region if the United States folds — and that is very much in his interest.”
Trump’s suggestion that Iran is seeking a ceasefire has raised hopes of a potential diplomatic opening, but experts caution that such signals may not reflect a unified position inside Iran.
“The question is what was shared with President Trump genuine, or is it wheeling and dealing of just one ambitious person?” Ben Taleblu said.
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Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian attends a press conference in Tehran, Iran, Sep. 16, 2024.(WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Majid Asgaripour via Reuters)
“Pezeshkian clearly does not have the authority to turn on or turn off a major military conflict with the United States,” Ben Taleblu said.
That leaves open the possibility that any outreach could be tactical, fragmented, or even contradictory.
Fox News Digital reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.
Efrat Lachter is a foreign correspondent for Fox News Digital covering international affairs and the United Nations. Follow her on X @efratlachter. Stories can be sent to efrat.lachter@fox.com.
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