2026-07-15T16:11:15.104Z / 美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)
关于政治最著名的引述之一是奥托·冯·俾斯麦的观察:政治是“可行的艺术”。
但说到夏令时,经济学家约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷思1962年写给约翰·F·肯尼迪总统的信中给出了更贴切的说法:“政治不是可行的艺术。它在于在灾难性与难接受的选项之间做出选择。”
美国国会再次试图取消每年两次调快、调慢一小时时钟的惯例——这一次是将夏令时永久化。众议院周二以压倒性的308票对117票通过了这项法案。
但在很多方面,这个问题是政治民粹主义失控的缩影。
调时钟很麻烦,我们不喜欢?那好,我们干脆别调了!如果现状很糟,那么替代方案肯定更好。
的确,听听这项法案的一些支持者怎么说,这几乎是一项零成本的举措——无需动脑,没有明显的弊端。
毕竟它叫《阳光保护法案》。谁会反对保护阳光呢?支持该法案的前总统唐纳德·特朗普在5月写道,这将让人们拥有“更长久、更明亮的白天”。
“谁会反对这个呢?”他补充道。
好吧,事实证明,很多人都反对。因为美国曾在20世纪70年代试过永久夏令时,当时民众就是这么反应的。美国人很快就意识到,我们最初开始调时钟是有充分理由的,公众舆论瞬间反转。
在一场能源危机期间,理查德·尼克松总统提议在接下来的两个冬季永久实行夏令时以节约能源。这项调整在1973-1974年冬季迅速推行。
但民调显示支持率暴跌。芝加哥大学全国民意研究中心的数据显示,12月时有79%的人支持这项调整,到2月时这一比例跌至42%。其他民调显示支持率下降得更低。
美国交通部后来的一项研究显示,这项举措实际上并没有节省多少能源,但却带来了一系列其他被证明存在问题的变化。
正如夏令时学者迈克尔·唐宁在2005年所写的那样,其中包括:美国时钟与欧洲不同步,与日出相关的宗教仪式变得更加困难,而且与大众看法相反,农民并不支持这项政策。
但最首要的问题是,它带来了数月寒冷昏暗的早晨。虽然永久夏令时的支持者宣称这会增加日照时间,但实际上它只是在冬季将日照时间往后推了而已。
实际而言,这意味着许多美国人会连续数月在黑暗中上学、上班。《华盛顿邮报》2024年发布了一些出色的可视化图表,展示了这项调整对美国各地的影响。
几个关键数据点:
- 密歇根州、北达科他州和蒙大拿州的部分地区,日出时间最晚会在上午9:30之后。
- 印第安纳波利斯和西雅图的最晚日出时间约为上午9点。
- 以华盛顿特区为例,将有两个半月以上的时间日出都在上午8点之后。
- 超过六个州的部分地区,将有至少五个月的日出时间早于上午8点的情况不复存在。
永久实行夏令时的最大弊端是让孩子们在寒冷黑暗的早晨等校车——一些人担心这会致命。
《时代》杂志1974年2月报道称,调整实施后的一个月内,佛罗里达州有8名儿童在清晨的交通事故中丧生,而前一年同期仅为2人。当国会在1974年晚些时候投票废止这项调整时,《纽约时报》援引一位匿名众议院议员的话称:“似乎确实有更多人死亡,大家都有点慌了。”
我们有理由追问,保持夏令时是否真的导致了死亡——或者更具体地说,是否比调时钟导致了更多死亡。毕竟,调时钟会打乱人们的生物钟,让人在睡眠不足的情况下开车,从而引发事故。2016年的一项学术研究估计,调时钟“每年造成超过30人死亡,社会成本高达2.75亿美元”。
但这恰恰点明了关键所在。这是在两种次优选项之间做出的选择,源于我们社会的运作方式,以及地球自转导致的全年日照时长变化。
而试图停止调时钟的提案,往往被当成是解决一件烦心事的简单办法。
参议院2022年曾以一致同意的方式通过了这项法案——换句话说,没有经过冗长辩论。
爱荷华州的共和党参议员查尔斯·格拉斯利当时说道:“我只知道,我妻子每年都希望夏令时能永久化。”
但后来共和党参议员汤姆·科顿为自己当时没有提出反对而感到后悔,并成为了这项调整的强烈反对者,理由正是上述诸多问题。
这位阿肯色州的共和党人曾警告同僚们要吸取1974年的教训。考虑到去年该法案在参议院商务委员会仅以16票对12票勉强通过——而三年前整个参议院都无人反对,似乎确实有一些人吸取了教训。
“并非所有人类问题都能通过立法解决,”科顿去年说道,“有时我们不得不在相互竞争的优先事项和利益之间接受一种令人不安的折中方案。考虑到恒星和行星的运行轨迹会影响分布在我们这片广袤大陆国家上的3.5亿民众的生活,这一点尤其如此。”
这话不太适合印在保险杠贴纸上面,但却是个中肯的观点。
The downside of making Daylight Saving Time permanent
2026-07-15T16:11:15.104Z / CNN
One of the most famous quotes about politics is Otto von Bismarck’s observation that it’s the “art of the possible.”
But when it comes to Daylight Saving Time, a more apt version comes from economist John Kenneth Galbraith’s 1962 letter to President John F. Kennedy: “Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable.”
Congress is yet again flirting with eliminating the United States’ twice-yearly ritual of changing the clocks by an hour — this time, by making Daylight Saving Time permanent. The House voted in favor of that change Tuesday by an overwhelming margin, 308-117.
But in many ways, this issue epitomizes political populism run amok.
Changing clocks is bad and we don’t like it? OK, then let’s just stop doing that! If the status quo is bad, then the alternative must be better.
Indeed, to hear some supporters of this effort tell it, this is a virtually cost-free maneuver — a no-brainer with no discernible downsides.
It’s called the Sunshine Protection Act, after all. Who could oppose protecting sunshine? President Donald Trump, who supports the move, wrote in May that it would give people “a longer, brighter Day.”
“And who can be against that?” he added.
Well, as it turns out, lots of people can be. Because they were when the United States tried this back in the 1970s. Americans were soon reminded that there was a good reason that we started changing the clocks in the first place. And public opinion turned on a dime.
In the midst of an energy crisis, President Richard Nixon proposed making Daylight Saving Time permanent for the next two winters in order to conserve it. And the change was quickly implemented for the winter of 1973-74.
But polls showed support falling off a cliff. Data from the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago showed 79% supported the change in December; that fell to 42% by February. Other polls showed support dropping even lower.
The move didn’t actually save much energy, according to a later study from the Department of Transportation. But it did produce a series of other changes that, it turned out, were problematic.
Among them, as Daylight Saving Time scholar Michael Downing wrote in 2005, were that it put clocks out of sync with Europe, made religious rituals related to sunrises more difficult, and, contrary to popular opinion, wasn’t popular with farmers.
But at the top of the list was the months of cold, dark mornings it created. While supporters of permanent Daylight Saving Time pitch it as increasing sunlight, it really just shifts it later in the winter.
What that means, practically speaking, is that many Americans go to school and work in the dark for months on end. The Washington Post in 2024 produced some great visualizations on what this change means for all corners of the country.
A few telling points:
- Some parts of Michigan, North Dakota and Montana would see their latest sunrises start after 9:30 a.m.
- The latest sunrises in Indianapolis and Seattle would be around 9 a.m.
- Washington, DC, for example, wouldn’t see the sun rise before 8 a.m. for more than two and a half months.
- Parts of more than half a dozen states would see at least five months of no sunrises before 8 a.m.
The biggest downside of adopting this permanently meant putting children at the bus stop in the cold and dark — which some feared was deadly.
Time magazine reported in February 1974 that eight Florida children had died in early morning traffic accidents a month after the change took place, compared to just two in the same period the year prior. When Congress voted to nix the change later in 1974, The New York Times quoted an anonymous House member saying: “There seemed to be some indication that there were more deaths, and everyone got a little nervous.”
It’s valid to ask whether keeping the clocks on Daylight Saving Time actually led to deaths — or, more specifically, whether it led to more deaths than changing the clocks does. The latter, after all, could lead to accidents by throwing off people’s circadian rhythms and putting them behind the wheel when they might be sleep deprived. An academic study in 2016 estimated that changing the clocks “caused over 30 deaths at a social cost of $275 million annually.”
But that gets at the key point here. This is a choice between suboptimal options created by how our society functions and how sunlight hours shift over the course of the year because of Earth’s rotation.
And too often, proposals to stop changing clocks are treated like a simple fix for an annoying thing.
The Senate passed this change by unanimous consent — in other words, without lengthy debate — back in 2022.
Republican Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa remarked at the time: “All I know is, constantly, every year, my wife wants it to be permanent.”
But GOP Sen. Tom Cotton later expressed regret for not objecting and has become a passionate opponent of this change, for many of the reasons described above.
The Arkansas Republican has warned his colleagues to learn the lessons of 1974. And some appear to have obliged, given the change only passed narrowly in the Senate Commerce Committee last year, 16-12 — after no objections in the entire Senate just three years prior.
“Not every human problem has a legislative solution,” Cotton said last year. “Sometimes we have to live with an uneasy compromise between competing priorities and interests. That’s doubly true when considering how the movement of the stars and the planets affects the lives of 350 million souls spread across our vast continental nation.”
That doesn’t exactly fit on bumper sticker. But it’s a good point.
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