2026年7月14日 美国东部时间下午1:30 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
在6月通胀报告低于预期后，新的预估显示2027年社保福利将上调3.6%至3.8%，社保受益人仍有望迎来近年来最大幅度的生活成本上调之一。
美国退休人员协会（AARP）预计2027年的生活成本调整（COLA）将上调3.6%，而美国老年公民联盟的预测为3.8%，这一数字与上月预估持平，但低于5月预估的3.9%涨幅。
根据美国社会保障总署的数据，截至今年1月，退休职工的平均社保月待遇为2071美元。若生活成本调整幅度为3.6%至3.8%，平均月福利将增加约75美元至79美元，上限区间将升至约2149美元。
生活成本调整旨在帮助福利跟上通胀步伐，但该调整基于过往物价涨幅。美国社会保障总署使用7月至9月的通胀数据计算调整幅度，这意味着最终的2027年生活成本调整幅度可能会根据近期消费者价格指数（CPI）报告与当前预估有所出入。
美国退休人员协会表示，美国社会保障总署将于10月14日公布2027年的生活成本调整方案，届时将发布9月的CPI报告。该 advocacy 团体称，这是其首次在用于计算官方调整幅度的第三季度通胀报告发布前发布的生活成本调整预估。
“目前通胀相当不稳定，”美国老年公民联盟的统计学家亚历克斯·摩尔在发给哥伦比亚广播公司新闻的邮件中说道。
6月通胀数据远低于经济学家预期，同比涨幅为3.5%，低于3.9%的预测值。该报告显示通胀较5月大幅回落，当时CPI达到4.2%的三年高点。
尽管每年都有生活成本上调，许多老年人表示他们的财务状况仍在恶化。美国老年公民联盟的研究显示，在过去十年中，社保福利的购买力已下降近14%，因为用于计算生活成本调整的通胀指标未能完全反映不成比例地影响老年人的开支，例如医疗保健费用。
美国社会保障总署依赖的是针对城市工薪阶层和办事员的消费者价格指数（CPI-W）这一通胀衡量指标的子集。但美国老年人权益倡导者表示，该指数基于年轻劳动者的消费模式，无法准确反映老年人的开支情况。
美国老年公民联盟在6月的一项调查中发现，大多数老年人对社保生活成本调整感到不满，89%的受访者认为2026年2.8%的涨幅过低，导致他们的福利未能跟上通胀。
June’s inflation data showed a big drop. How will that impact the 2027 Social Security COLA?
July 14, 2026 1:30 PM EDT / CBS News
Social Security recipients are still on track for one of the biggest cost-of-living increases in recent years, with new estimates pointing to a 3.6% to 3.8% benefit boost in 2027 after June’s cooler-than-expected inflation report.
The 2027 COLA could rise by 3.6%, according to the AARP, while the Senior Citizens League is forecasting a 3.8% increase, unchanged from its prior month’s forecast but down from its May estimate for a 3.9% boost.
As of January, the average retired worker received $2,071 a month in Social Security benefits, according to the Social Security Administration. A 3.6% to 3.8% COLA would increase the average monthly benefit by about $75 to $79, raising it to roughly $2,149 at the upper end of the range.
The COLA is intended to help benefits keep pace with inflation, but it is based on past price increases. The Social Security Administration calculates the adjustment using inflation data from July through September, meaning the final 2027 COLA could differ from current estimates based on recent Consumer Price Index reports.
The Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 COLA on Oct. 14, after the September CPI report is released, according to the AARP. The advocacy group said this is its first COLA projection ahead of the third-quarter inflation reports that will be used to calculate the official adjustment.
“Inflation is pretty unstable right now,” Alex Moore, the statistician for the Senior Citizens League, told CBS News in an email.
June’s inflation data came in much cooler than economists had expected, rising 3.5% on an annual basis, lower than the forecast of 3.9%. The report reflected a sharp cooling from May, when the CPI hit a three-year high of 4.2%.
Despite annual COLA increases, many seniors say they’re falling behind financially. Research from the Senior Citizens League shows Social Security benefits have lost nearly 14% of their buying power over the past decade because the inflation measure used to calculate the COLA doesn’t fully reflect expenses that disproportionately affect older Americans, such as healthcare.
The Social Security Administration relies on a subset of the inflation gauge called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. But advocates for older Americans say the index is based on younger workers’ spending patterns and doesn’t accurately reflect older Americans’ spending.
Most seniors are frustrated with their Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, with 89% saying the 2026 hike of 2.8% was too low, allowing their benefits to fall short of inflation, the Senior Citizens League found in a June survey.
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