2026-07-14T10:04:00.83Z / 路透社
7月14日（路透社）——美联储主席凯文·沃什将于周二前往国会山，发表他就任美国央行行长以来的首次国会证词。
沃什的公开言论和参议院确认听证会已经凸显了他的诸多观点，但围绕他对经济现状、通胀和劳动力市场的看法，仍有一些重要问题有待厘清——物价稳定和最大化就业是国会赋予美联储的职责范围。
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以下是议员们可能会探讨的若干悬而未决的议题：
就业问题
沃什尚未就就业问题和劳动力市场的预期演变发表过多言论。在他看来，劳动力规模的预期变化，以及劳动力可能随时间稳步萎缩这一事实，会产生何种影响？考虑到当前的人口结构和移民趋势，失业率较低但月度就业增长乏力的经济状况，是否符合美联储实现最大化就业的法定目标？
通胀问题
沃什曾表示，在通胀数据和美联储2%的通胀目标方面，重点应放在“小数点左侧”——这表明他不赞同对那些测量不够精准的指标过于较真，同时也可能意味着他对略高于2%的通胀抱有一定容忍度，这是一个更容易实现的标准。但这一理念如何适用于低于2%的通胀情况？美联储对通胀目标采取“对称”立场，即过低的通胀结果与过高的通胀结果同样令人担忧。沃什是否认同这一立场？或者说，在何种情况下需要采取货币政策应对措施方面，他对通胀目标的看法更为灵活？
货币供应量问题
美联储已有多年未主动关注货币供应量，但沃什就任央行行长以来发布的首份货币政策报告中，上周首次纳入了这一概念，距上一次提及已有十年之久。货币供应量在通胀形成中扮演何种角色？沃什计划如何借助货币供应量进行政策制定？如果美联储将关注重点放在货币供应量上，是否意味着会对当前的政府赤字支出采取紧缩立场？尽管美联储通常认为此类问题属于民选官员的职责范畴，不应由央行置评。
通胀预期问题
美联储政策制定者认为，公众对通胀的预期是通胀走势的核心影响因素。美联储的政策框架表示，央行“准备采取有力行动，确保长期通胀预期保持稳定锚定”。沃什尚未以同样紧迫的口吻谈及通胀预期问题。他是否认同预期是通胀结果的核心影响因素？他是否与同僚们持有相同观点，即维持通胀预期稳定锚定或许是美联储的首要任务？
由美国经济团队报道；保罗·西mao编辑（注：Paul Simao标准译名为保罗·西芒奥）
Some questions that may come up during Fed chief Warsh’s testimony to Congress
2026-07-14T10:04:00.83Z / Reuters
July 14 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh heads to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to deliver his first congressional testimony since taking over as head of the U.S. central bank.
Warsh’s public comments and Senate confirmation hearing have highlighted many of his views, but some important questions remain around his thoughts on the state of the economy, inflation and labor markets — price stability and maximum employment form the Fed’s areas of responsibility mandated by Congress.
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Here are some open issues lawmakers could explore:
EMPLOYMENT
Warsh has not said much about jobs and the anticipated evolution of the labor force. How does the expected size of the labor force, and the fact that it might shrink steadily over time, matter in his view? Does an economy with low unemployment but low monthly job growth — quite possible given current demographic and immigration trends — satisfy the Fed’s mandate to achieve maximum employment?
INFLATION
Warsh has said that when it comes to inflation data and the Fed’s 2% target, the focus should be to the “left of the decimal point” — indicating his discomfort with trying to be too precise about things that are imperfectly measured, and also potentially some tolerance for inflation a bit over 2%, an easier standard to hit. But how does that idea relate to inflation that falls below 2%? The Fed has a “symmetric” view of its target, with outcomes that are too low regarded as just as worrisome as outcomes that are too high. Does Warsh agree with that view, or are his thoughts about the inflation target more fluid in terms of what warrants a monetary policy response?
MONEY SUPPLY
The Fed has not actively fretted about the money supply in years, but a reference to it was included last week for the first time in a decade in the first Monetary Policy Report since Warsh became the central bank’s chairman. What role does the money supply play in inflation, and how is Warsh planning to rely on it? Would a focus on the money supply mean leaning against current government deficit spending even though the Fed typically regards that issue as off limits for discussion, and the province of elected officials?
EXPECTATIONS
Fed policymakers regard public expectations about inflation as central to how inflation evolves. The Fed’s policy framework says the central bank is “prepared to act forcefully to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.” Warsh has not spoken about expectations with the same urgency. Does he agree that expectations are central to inflation outcomes, and does he share with his colleagues the belief that keeping them anchored is perhaps the Fed’s top priority?
Reporting by U.S. economics team; Editing by Paul Simao
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