2026-07-01T18:00:05-04:00 / 福克斯新闻
选民甄选候选人之际，通胀成头号关切议题
作者：维多利亚·巴拉拉，福克斯新闻
发布于2026年7月1日 美国东部夏令时下午6:00
艾奥瓦州民主党欲拿下美国参议院席位
福克斯商业频道记者格雷迪·特林布尔在《特别报道》节目中报道了州众议员乔希·图雷克与州参议员扎克·瓦尔兹竞争挑战共和党联邦参议院候选人的机会，这场关键选战将决定席位归属。
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即将接替即将退休的共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特的选战，有望成为2026年竞争最胶着的参议院席位角逐之一。恩斯特是首位代表艾奥瓦州的女性参议员，2020年以6.5个百分点的优势连任，当年唐纳德·特朗普总统在该州以8个百分点胜出，2024年胜幅更是达到13个百分点。
一项全新的福克斯新闻全州民调显示，艾奥瓦州民众对特朗普的负面评价领先13个百分点（好感度42%，反感度55%）。与2024年11月艾奥瓦州福克斯新闻选民分析（FNVA）选举民调中他+6的支持率（52%-46%）相比，支持率出现了19个百分点的波动。
艾奥瓦州上一次选出民主党参议员还是近20年前的2008年，由汤姆·哈金当选。就目前民调来看，民主党候选人乔希·图雷克以4个百分点的微弱优势领先共和党候选人阿什利·辛森：50%对46%。这一优势处于民调误差范围内。
在表示投票积极性极高的选民中，图雷克领先15个百分点，这主要得益于民主党选民更高的投票热情——67%的民主党选民表示积极性极高，而共和党选民中这一比例为53%。
福克斯新闻民调：缅因州参议院选战胶着，两名候选人均遭质疑
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辛森的净好感度比特朗普更积极，但仍处于负面区间：好感度42%，反感度49%，负面差距7个百分点。而图雷克的人气更高，净好感度为+18（51%-33%）。16%的选民对图雷克没有明确看法，9%的选民对辛森持同样态度。
在一对一的对决中，图雷克获得了以下群体的支持：大学学历女性（65%）、无党派选民（59%）、城市选民（59%）以及30岁以下选民（55%）。
辛森的支持者群体则包括：白人福音派基督徒（67%）、45岁及以上男性（55%）、退伍军人（52%）以及未获得大学学位的男性（52%）。她在“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）共和党选民中的支持度最高，这一群体支持她的比例比非MAGA共和党选民高出23个百分点（95%对72%）。
总体而言，支持图雷克的民主党选民占比（96%）比支持辛森的共和党选民占比（88%）高出8个百分点。
福克斯新闻民调：展望美国建国250周年
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有10个百分点的差距，图雷克的支持者中有82%表示肯定会在11月投票支持自己支持的候选人，而辛森的支持者中这一比例为72%。近三成辛森的支持者表示可能改变主意。
与图雷克的支持者相比，更多辛森的支持者表示自己的投票是支持辛森本人，而非反对对手：77%的辛森支持者表示投票是为了支持她，而图雷克的支持者中这一比例为60%。
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特朗普于去年9月背书了辛森，选民对她与总统的关联看法分歧：50%的选民表示“极其/非常担心她与特朗普过从甚密”，而48%的选民表示“不太/完全不担心”。
担心图雷克的政策立场过于激进的选民较少：37%的选民表示担忧，59%的选民表示不担忧。
“过去十年艾奥瓦州转向红色阵营，但这些数据显示该州正回归摇摆州状态，”共和党民调学家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同负责福克斯新闻民调。“三大问题有利于民主党：艾奥瓦民众深受物价上涨冲击，他们素来对海外军事介入持怀疑态度，而农业界对关税政策不满。”
在2024年的FNVA民调中，31%的艾奥瓦民众表示自己的财务状况正在恶化。如今这一比例已升至42%——几乎是表示“财务状况改善”的选民比例（11%）的四倍。近半数选民表示财务状况保持稳定（46%）。
四成艾奥瓦选民表示，通胀是影响他们参议院投票的最重要议题（39%）。其他议题支持率均落后：医疗保健（14%）、移民/边境安全（13%）、政治分裂（13%），支持堕胎权（6%）、就业/失业（6%）、伊朗问题（4%）和犯罪问题（2%）的选民占比更低。
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在将通胀列为首要议题的选民中，图雷克领先15个百分点；在医疗保健议题选民中领先53个百分点；在政治分裂议题选民中领先20个百分点。而辛森在移民议题上拥有高达88个百分点的优势。
与恩斯特一样，艾奥瓦州共和党州长金·雷诺兹也选择不寻求第三个任期。
最新民调显示，民主党候选人罗布·桑德在接替雷诺兹的州长竞选中，以9个百分点的优势领先共和党挑战者扎克·莱恩。
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桑德获得了一定的跨党派支持：11%的辛森支持者倾向于投票给他，而7%的图雷克支持者支持莱恩。
表示肯定会投票支持自己支持的候选人的桑德支持者比例高于莱恩支持者（81%对74%）。
桑德的个人净好感度为+21：54%的选民对其好感，33%的选民反感。莱恩的好感度为负面，差距3个百分点：38%的选民好感，41%的选民反感，20%的选民无法给出评价。
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本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年6月23日至27日开展，由比肯研究公司（民主党）和肖公司研究公司（共和党）联合指导，样本为从全州选民档案中随机抽取的1003名艾奥瓦州登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（104人）、手机（662人）参与访谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（237人）。基于全样本的结果抽样误差为±3个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和提问顺序也会影响调查结果。人口加权目标的制定依据包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析数据和选民档案数据。通常会对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者人口结构能够代表登记选民群体。仅当子群体样本量至少达到100时，才会展示相关结果。
Fox News Poll: A close Senate contest is brewing in Iowa
2026-07-01T18:00:05-04:00 / Fox News
Inflation is top of mind as voters choose a candidate
By Victoria Balara, Fox News
Published July 1, 2026 6:00pm EDT
Iowa Democrats seek to flip US Senate seat
FOX Business correspondent Grady Trimble reports on state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls competing for the chance to challenge the GOP U.S. Senate candidate in a key race on ‘Special Report.’
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The race to succeed Iowa’s retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is on track to be one of the closest Senate contests in 2026.Ernst, the first woman senator to represent the Hawkeye State, won by 6.5 points in 2020, and President Donald Trump carried it by 8 points that year and by 13 in 2024.
A new statewide Fox News survey finds Iowans now view Trump negatively by 13 points (42% favorable vs. 55% unfavorable). That’s a 19-point swing compared to his +6 rating (52-46%) in the November 2024 Iowa Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey.
The last time Iowa elected a Democratic senator was Tom Harkin nearly 20 years ago (2008). As it stands, Democrat Josh Turek has an early 4-point advantage over Republican Ashley Hinson: 50% vs. 46%. It’s an edge that’s within the poll’s margin of error.
Among voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Turek holds a 15-point lead, coming largely from greater enthusiasm among Democrats (67% extremely motivated) than Republicans (53%).
FOX NEWS POLL: MAINE SENATE RACE IS TIGHT, WITH CONCERNS ABOUT BOTH CANDIDATES
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Hinson’s net favorability is more positive than Trump’s, yet still negative by 7 points (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable) while Turek is much more popular with a net positive rating of 18 points (51%-33%). Sixteen percent have no opinion of Turek while 9% say the same of Hinson.
In the head-to-head, Turek benefits from the support of women with a college degree (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and voters under age 30 (55%).
Hinson’s backing comes from White evangelical Christians (67%), men ages 45 and over (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%). Her support is strongest among MAGA Republicans, who are 23 points more likely to back her than non-MAGA GOPers (95% vs. 72%).
Overall, by 8 points, more Democrats support Turek (96%) than Republicans back Hinson (88%).
FOX NEWS POLL: LOOKING AHEAD TO AMERICA’S 250TH ANNIVERSARY
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By a 10-point margin, more of Turek’s supporters (82%) than Hinson’s (72%) say they are certain to support their candidate in November. Nearly 3 in 10 Hinson supporters say they may change their mind.
More Hinson supporters say their vote is for her rather than against her opponent compared to Turek supporters (77% vote is for Hinson vs. 60% for Turek).
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Trump endorsed Hinson last September and voters are divided over her ties to the president: 50% say they are extremely or very concerned she’s too close to Trump, while 48% say they’re not very or not at all concerned.
Fewer voters are worried Turek’s positions on the issues are too liberal: 37% concerned vs. 59% not concerned.
“Iowa has turned red during the last decade, but these data suggest a reversion to swing status,” says Republican Pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “A trifecta of issues helps Democrats: Iowans have been hit hard by rising prices, they are notoriously skeptical about foreign engagements, and the agricultural community isn’t happy about tariffs.”
In the 2024 FNVA, 31% of Iowans said they were falling behind financially. That number is now 42% — nearly 4 times as many as those saying they are getting ahead (11%). Nearly half say they are holding steady (46%).
Four in 10 Iowans say the most important issue to their Senate vote will be inflation (39%). Healthcare (14%), immigration/border security (13%), and political divisions (13%) lag behind, and even fewer say abortion (6%), jobs/unemployment (6%), Iran (4%), and crime (2%).
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Turek has the edge on voters who say their most important issues are inflation (+15 points), healthcare (+53), and political divisions (+20). Hinson has a whopping 88-point advantage on the issue of immigration.
Like Ernst, Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds opted not to seek a third term.
The new survey finds Democratic nominee Rob Sand with a 9-point lead over Republican challenger Zach Lahn in the race to succeed Reynolds.
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Sand benefits from some crossover support, as 11% of Hinson supporters favor him for governor compared to 7% of Turek supporters backing Lahn.
More Sand supporters say they’re certain of their choice than Lahn backers (81% to 74%).
Sand enjoys a +21 personal rating: 54% favorable, 33% unfavorable. Lahn’s ratings are negative by 3 points, with 20% unable to rate him (38% favorable, 41% unfavorable, 20% no opinion).
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Conducted June 23-27, 2026 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 Iowa registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (104) and cellphones (662) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (237). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
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