2026年6月30日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
约76%的民主党选民投票积极性极高，而共和党选民这一比例为61%
作者：达纳·布兰顿，福克斯新闻
普拉特纳与柯林斯将在缅因州参议院竞展开对决
保罗·吉戈特就格雷厄姆·普拉特纳和苏珊·柯林斯之间的缅因州参议院竞选展开讨论。专题小组分析了普拉特纳的进步派势头和过往争议，质疑民主党人是否忽视了他的弱点。
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缅因州参议院竞选正逐渐演变为一场势均力敌的较量。
尽管多数选民对两党主要候选人都存在担忧，但对民主党候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳的担忧更为强烈。这是福克斯新闻全州民调的结果，该民调还显示选民投票积极性有助于维持这场竞选的竞争力。
最新民调显示，共和党现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯以微弱优势领先三个百分点，在缅因州登记选民中，她的支持率为50%，普拉特纳为47%。
但在表示自己投票积极性极高的三分之二选民中，普拉特纳以53%比44%领先9个百分点。
福克斯新闻民调：展望美国250周年庆典
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这一差距源于15个百分点的热情落差，自称今年投票积极性极高的民主党选民（76%）多于共和党选民（61%）。
福克斯新闻民调：选民支持医疗议程，对小罗伯特·肯尼迪 Jr.评价负面
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缅因州选民对两名参议院候选人都表示担忧。超过一半的选民认为普拉特纳缺乏担任美国参议员的判断力，另有比例相近的选民认为柯林斯在任时间过长。
但对普拉特纳的担忧程度更深。近四成选民极其担忧他的判断力，而认为柯林斯任期过长的选民比例为三成。
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约三分之一的无党派选民极其担忧普拉特纳的判断力（33%）和柯林斯的任期过长问题（30%）。仅有10%的民主党选民对普拉特纳表示担忧，仅有10%的共和党选民对柯林斯表示担忧。
约十分之一担忧普拉特纳判断力的选民仍支持他，而两成担忧柯林斯任期过长的选民继续支持她。
2024年，哈里斯在全州范围内以近7个百分点的优势击败唐纳德·特朗普。
“与北卡罗来纳州一样，缅因州是民主党人最明确的参议院竞选目标——这是一个蓝州，选民情绪不稳，且现任共和党议员已在任30年，”共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同负责福克斯新闻民调。“怎么会搞砸呢？或许是提名了面临性侵、种族主义和不诚实指控的候选人。这场竞选可能会证明，党派和民粹主义忠诚度是否凌驾于一切之上。”
在赛马式民调中，柯林斯的领先优势主要来自男性选民（领先10个百分点）、无大学学位的选民（领先15个百分点）、拥有枪支的家庭（领先21个百分点）以及农村选民（领先8个百分点）。根据2020年缅因州福克斯新闻选民分析选举调查，她在这些群体中的表现与她最近一次连任时的表现基本一致。
普拉特纳在女性选民（领先5个百分点）、拥有大学学位的选民（领先15个百分点）以及郊区选民和温和派选民（各领先10个百分点）中更受青睐。他在这些群体中的支持率低于前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯2024年的支持率。2024年缅因州福克斯新闻选民分析显示，哈里斯在女性选民中领先10个百分点，在拥有大学学位的选民中领先42个百分点，在郊区选民中领先27个百分点，在温和派选民中领先24个百分点。
尽管柯林斯以温和派共和党人著称，但97%的“让美国再次伟大”共和党人支持她。在非“让美国再次伟大”的共和党人中，82%支持柯林斯，15%支持普拉特纳。
柯林斯获得的党内支持率高于普拉特纳，她获得了93%的共和党选民支持，而普拉特纳获得了86%的民主党选民支持。无党派选民以2个百分点的优势支持普拉特纳，比例为47%比45%。
尽管普拉特纳是退伍军人，但他在军人选民中落后柯林斯18个百分点。
约八成柯林斯的支持者（79%）和普拉特纳的支持者（81%）都坚定支持自己的选择，而两成选民表示他们仍可能改变主意。
仅有十分之一的缅因州选民表示自己的财务状况有所改善。超过四成的选民表示自己的财务状况正在恶化，约一半选民表示财务状况保持稳定。
缅因州选民在决定参议院选票时认为最重要的问题是通货膨胀（30%）。其次是国内政治分歧（19%）、医疗保健（17%）和移民（14%）。很少有人将失业、伊朗问题、堕胎或犯罪列为首要问题。
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通货膨胀在无党派选民和民主党选民中排名第一，而共和党选民则 narrowly 将移民和边境安全排在通货膨胀之前。
柯林斯于30年前首次当选参议员，2020年以9个百分点的优势连任。不过，对她的负面评价略多于正面评价，差距为3个百分点（47%好评，50%差评）。普拉特纳的个人评价更差，负面评价领先10个百分点（43%好评，53%差评）。特朗普总统的评价负面领先19个百分点（40%好评，59%差评）。
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民主党州长候选人汉娜·平格里的正面评价领先17个百分点（53%好评，36%差评）。共和党人鲍比·查尔斯的评价不相上下（39%好评，40%差评），但约21%的选民无法评价他。
在州长竞选中，平格里以53%比42%领先查尔斯11个百分点。在表示自己11月投票积极性极高的选民中，她的领先优势扩大到18个百分点。
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17%支持柯林斯参加参议院竞选的选民跨党派支持平格里竞选州长，而5%支持普拉特纳的选民支持共和党候选人查尔斯。
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现任民主党州长珍妮特·米尔斯自2019年起任职，她将在4月暂停其参议院竞选活动，但尚未表态支持普拉特纳。
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本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年6月23日至27日进行，由Beacon Research（民主党）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党）联合指导，共采访了1003名缅因州登记选民，样本从全州选民档案中随机抽取。受访者通过固定电话（102人）、手机（653人）接受现场采访，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（248人）。基于全样本的结果抽样误差为±3个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。人口加权目标的制定依据包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。通常会对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者的人口统计数据能代表登记选民群体。仅当样本量至少为N=100时，才会展示子群体结果。
福克斯新闻的维多利亚·巴拉拉为本报告做出了贡献。
作为民意调查部门负责人，达纳·布兰顿负责管理福克斯新闻民调，并监督福克斯新闻选民分析选举调查。
Fox News Poll: Maine Senate race is tight, with concerns about both candidates
June 30, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
Some 76% of Democrats are highly motivated to vote vs. 61% of Republicans
By Dana Blanton, Fox News
Platner and Collins set to square off in Maine Senate race
Paul Gigot leads a discussion on the Maine Senate race between Graham Platner and Susan Collins. Panelists examine Platner’s progressive momentum and past controversies, questioning if Democrats overlook his vulnerabilities.
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The Maine Senate race is shaping up to be a close contest.
While majorities have concerns about both major party candidates, the worries about Democratic candidate Graham Platner are more intense. That’s according to a Fox News statewide poll that also suggests voter motivation is helping keep the race competitive.
The new poll finds Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins has a small three percentage-point advantage, receiving 50% to Platner’s 47% among Maine registered voters.
But among the two-thirds of voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Platner leads by 9 points, 53-44%.
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That’s driven by a 15-point enthusiasm gap, as more Democrats (76%) than Republicans (61%) describe themselves as highly motivated to cast a ballot this year.
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Maine voters express concern about both Senate candidates.More than half say Platner lacks the judgment to serve as a U.S. senator, while a similar share believes Collins has been in office too long.
Yet concerns about Platner run a bit deeper.Nearly 4 in 10 are extremely worried about his judgment compared with 3 in 10 who say the same about Collins’ lengthy tenure.
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Roughly one-third of independents are extremely concerned about both Platner’s judgment (33%) and Collins’ tenure (30%).Only 10% of Democrats express concern about Platner, and only 10% of Republicans about Collins.
About 1 in 10 of those concerned about Platner’s judgment still support him, while 2 in 10 of those worried Collins has served too long continue to favor her.
In 2024, Harris beat Donald Trump statewide by nearly 7 points.
“Along with North Carolina, Maine is the Democrats’ most obvious Senate target — a blue state with a restless electorate and a 30-year establishment Republican incumbent,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “How do you blow that? Maybe by nominating someone facing allegations of sexual abuse, racism, and dishonesty. This race could demonstrate whether partisan and populist loyalties trump all else.”
In the horse race, Collins’ edge primarily comes from men (+10 points), voters without a college degree (+15), gunowner households (+21), and rural voters (+8). For the most part, she is matching her performance among these groups compared to her most recent re-election, according to the 2020 Maine Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
Platner is preferred among women (+5 points), voters with a college degree (+15), and suburban voters and moderates (+10 each).He is underperforming former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 support among those groups. The 2024 Maine FNVA finds she won women by 10 points, voters with a degree by 42, suburban voters by 27, and moderates by 24.
Despite Collins’ reputation as a moderate Republican, 97% of MAGA Republicans favor her. Among non-MAGA GOPers, 82% go for Collins and 15% for Platner.
Collins garners more within-party support than Platner, getting 93% of Republicans, while he gets 86% among Democrats.Independents favor Platner by 2 points, 47-45%.
While Platner is a veteran, he trails Collins by 18 points among military voters.
About 8 in 10 of both Collins (79%) and Platner backers (81%) are committed to their choice, while 2 in 10 voters say they could still change their mind.
Only 1 in 10 Maine voters say they are getting ahead financially. More than 4 in 10 say they’re falling behind, while about half are holding steady.
The most important issue to Maine voters in deciding their Senate vote is inflation (30%). That’s followed by political divisions within the country (19%), healthcare (17%), and immigration (14%). Far fewer prioritize unemployment, Iran, abortion, or crime as their top issue.
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Inflation ranks first among independents and Democrats, while Republicans narrowly put immigration and border security ahead of inflation.
Collins, first elected to the Senate 30 years ago, won reelection by 9 points in 2020. Still, slightly more view her negatively than positively by 3 points (47% favorable, 50% unfavorable). Platner’s personal rating is weaker, with negative ratings by 10 points (43-53%). President Trump’s ratings are negative by 19 (40-59%).
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Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree has a 17-point positive rating (53 favorable vs. 36% unfavorable). Republican Bobby Charles is viewed about evenly (39-40%), although some 21% are unable to rate him.
In the gubernatorial race, Pingree leads Charles by 11 points, 53-42%. Her lead expands to 18 points among those who are extremely motivated to vote in November.
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Seventeen percent of those favoring Collins in the Senate race cross party lines to support Pingree for governor, while 5% of Platner backers go for Charles, the Republican.
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Sitting Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who is term limited, has served since 2019.She suspended her campaign in the U.S. Senate race in April but has yet to endorse Platner.
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Conducted June 23-27, 2026 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (102) and cellphones (653) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (248). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
As head of the polling unit, Dana Blanton runs the Fox News Poll and oversees the Fox News Voter Analysis election survey.
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