2026年6月30日 美国东部时间上午12:06 / 《华盛顿邮报》
这项民调显示，民主党自上世纪90年代以来首次有机会赢得得克萨斯州的全州性选举。
得克萨斯州联邦参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（左）与得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿
作者：斯科特·克莱门特
据《纽约时报》与锡耶纳大学周二发布的民调显示，民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在备受关注的得克萨斯州联邦参议院选举中与共和党人肯·帕克斯顿打成平手。
这项民调显示，总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持率低迷，以及帕克斯顿过往的争议事件，让民主党自上世纪90年代以来首次有机会赢得得克萨斯州的全州性选举。
总体而言，民调发现47%的潜在选民支持该州总检察长帕克斯顿，另有47%的选民支持州议员塔拉里科——后者拥有神学研究硕士学位。另有6%的选民尚未决定支持谁。
特朗普曾以14个百分点的优势赢得得克萨斯州，但《纽约时报》-锡耶纳大学民调显示，目前有53%的选民不认可他的工作表现，57%的选民不认可他处理伊朗问题的方式，60%的选民不认可他应对“生活成本”问题的举措。
得克萨斯州选民在个人层面明显更青睐塔拉里科：51%的选民认为他“具备正确的道德价值观”，56%的选民认为他“品行端正”；而仅有39%的选民认可帕克斯顿的道德价值观，38%的选民认为帕克斯顿品行端正。
2023年，帕克斯顿被由共和党控制的州众议院以多项滥用职权的罪名弹劾，但州参议院宣判其无罪。
不过也有其他迹象表明，得克萨斯州可能会在11月回归其共和党倾向：潜在选民以50%比44%的优势，表示更希望由共和党掌控美国参议院。
《纽约时报》-锡耶纳大学的民调于6月19日至27日开展，随机抽取了得克萨斯州656名潜在选民作为样本，由调查员以英语和西班牙语进行电话访问。抽样误差幅度为正负4.5个百分点。
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Texas Senate race is dead even, poll finds
June 30, 2026 at 12:06 p.m. EDT / The Washington Post
The survey suggests Democrats have a chance to win a statewide contest in Texas for the first time since the 1990s.
Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, left, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. (Danielle Villasana/LM Otero/Getty Images)
By Scott Clement
Democrat James Talarico is tied with Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’s closely watched U.S. Senate election, according to a New York Times-Siena University poll released Tuesday.
The survey suggests President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and Paxton’s past controversies are giving Democrats a chance to win a statewide contest in Texas for the first time since the 1990s.
Overall, the poll finds 47 percent of likely voters support Paxton, the state’s attorney general, while 47 percent support Talarico, a state lawmaker who earned a master’s degree in theological studies. Another six percent are undecided.
Trump won Texas by 14 percentage points, but the Times-Siena poll finds 53 percent disapproving of his job performance today, with 57 percent disapproving of his handling of the war in Iran and 60 percent disapproving of his handling “the cost of living.”
Texas voters clearly prefer Talarico to Paxton on a personal level: 51 percent say he has “the right kind of moral values,” and 56 percent say he “has good character,” compared with 39 percent who praise Paxton’s moral values and 38 percent who say he has good character.
In 2023, Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled state House on multiple charges of abuse of office, while the state Senate acquitted him.
Yet there are other signs Texas may revert to its Republican leanings by November, with likely voters saying they prefer Republicans control the U.S. Senate by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin.
The Times-Siena poll was conducted June 19-27 among a random sample of 656 likely voters in Texas, with live callers administering surveys in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
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