前海军上将称伊朗袭击该航线是因其为商业航运提供了脱离伊朗控制的通道
2026年6月30日 美国东部时间早上6:00 / 福克斯新闻
作者：摩根·菲利普斯
美伊在霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势升级
比尔·赫姆详细介绍了美伊两国在霍尔木兹海峡不断升级的紧张局势。
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伊朗最近对商业航运的袭击，正值美国和阿曼开始引导更多船只行经一条紧贴阿曼海岸线的南部新航运走廊——这条替代航线旨在让航运远离伊朗的直接管控范围。
美国前军事指挥官和地区分析师告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，这一时间点绝非巧合。他们表示，随着新的航运路线和地区基础设施逐渐削弱德黑兰对霍尔木兹海峡的影响力，伊朗正试图保住其最大的战略优势之一。
“这条南部航线是伊朗无法收取通行费或加以控制的通道，”退役海军少将马克·蒙哥马利告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，“他们认为有必要发动袭击。”
航运巨头警告：霍尔木兹海峡混乱已成“新常态”，德黑兰调整400万桶原油运输路线
数十年来，伊朗威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡航运的能力，使其影响力远超本国边界。但随着海湾国家投资建设绕过霍尔木兹海峡的输油管道，以及美国和阿曼扩大使用南部走廊，这一优势正日益受到挤压。
海事情报公司Windward的数据显示，近一半通过该海峡的 inbound 商业航运已经改用这条航线。
伊朗袭击使用该走廊的船只后，美国对与海事行动相关的伊朗军事目标发动了空袭作为回应。伊朗近日则袭击了美国设施和地区伙伴作为报复，随后特朗普宣布双方已同意停止进一步空袭，并返回多哈进行谈判。
伊朗否认其谈判代表将于周二与美国官员在卡塔尔会面。
伊朗最近对商业航运的袭击，正值美国和阿曼开始引导更多船只行经一条紧贴阿曼海岸线的南部新航运走廊——这条替代航线旨在让航运远离伊朗的直接管控范围。（萨迪·阿拉萨尔/阿纳多卢通讯社通过盖蒂图片社拍摄）
前美国海军第五舰队司令凯文·唐尼根副海军上将表示，伊朗的目标未必是完全中断航运。
“伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队一直在试图让航运在商业上行不通，”唐尼根告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，他指的是伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队。“这些针对航运的袭击并非随机行为，而是战略之举。”
唐尼根称，伊朗并非直接封锁海峡，而只需将保险费率维持在足够高的水平，令商业航运公司始终不愿恢复通行。
“他们的战略是强化对海峡的控制，”他说，同时推高保险成本，并持续“考验美国的决心”。
万斯驳斥特朗普-伊朗协议呼应奥巴马时期逻辑的说法，鹰派人士发出警告
当前的问题是，伊朗能否将这种军事压力转化为对海峡的持久影响力。
根据停火后达成的谅解备忘录，伊朗、阿曼和海湾沿岸国家将就海峡的“未来管理和海事服务”进行谈判，同时商业航运在60天内无需缴纳通行费。
唐纳德·特朗普总统在社交媒体上坚称，谈判期结束后将“绝不收取通行费”，尽管谅解备忘录本身并未明确保证这一结果。当被问及这一矛盾之处时，特朗普辩称，“常识”以及美国重启军事行动的威胁，将阻止伊朗干扰商业航运。
然而，伊朗方面传递出了不同的愿景。一家与伊朗革命卫队有关联的新闻媒体将协议的最后修订条款——包括涉及海峡未来管理和临时通行费条款的内容——描绘为德黑兰的谈判胜利。
记者周二谈判前未能立即联系到白宫置评。
美国的海湾伙伴同样明确表示，无意改写现状。
“冲突爆发前，海峡的管理运作良好，”沙特外交大臣费萨尔·本·法尔汉亲王表示，“我们为何要在冲突爆发后，接受某种全新的安排？”
这种分歧反映了战斗结束后，各方对伊朗在海峡中角色的不同设想。
前美国助理国务卿戴维·申克表示，此次谈判反映了伊朗努力在冲突结束后建立“波斯湾新现状”。
但保住对霍尔木兹海峡的影响力，不仅仅关乎商业航运。
在最近的冲突中，伊朗导弹瞄准以色列。（通过瓦纳通讯社/路透社拍摄的泳池照片）
“伊朗基本上是想填补这一空白，”武装冲突地点与事件数据项目执行主任克利奥娜德拉·拉利说道。
拉利认为，这场冲突让海湾国家政府质疑“美国是否是不可靠的伙伴”，这为德黑兰提供了机会，使其得以主张海湾地区的安全应越来越多地由本地区国家而非华盛顿来管理。
这些疑虑已经在重塑地区战略。
“他们正致力于真正打造自身的防御态势，”拉利说，“同时也在寻求其他持续开展贸易的途径。”
这些努力已开展多年，但最新的冲突加速了其进程。
沙特阿拉伯已大举投资连接海湾油田与红海的东西向输油管道，而阿联酋则通过富查伊拉港扩大了出口产能，使原油出口完全绕过霍尔木兹海峡。
停火期间，美国军方在霍尔木兹海峡实施了海上封锁。（美国中央司令部提供）
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每一桶离开海湾却无需经海峡运输的原油，以及每一艘安全使用南部走廊的船只，都在削弱伊朗历来从这座全球最重要的海上咽喉要道获得的影响力。
如果这些替代方案持续扩张，即便霍尔木兹海峡本身仍是全球至关重要的能源通道，伊朗将其作为战略施压点的能力也可能逐渐减弱。
Iran fights to keep grip on Hormuz as US, Gulf allies carve new shipping route
Retired Navy admiral says Iran struck the route because it gave commercial shipping a path beyond Iranian control
June 30, 2026 6:00am EDT / Fox News
By Morgan Phillips
Escalating US-Iran tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Bill Hemm provides a detailed overview of the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Iran’s latest attacks on commercial shipping came just as the United States and Oman were beginning to steer more vessels through a new southern shipping corridor hugging Oman’s coastline — an alternative route designed to move traffic farther from Iran’s immediate reach.
Former U.S. military commanders and regional analysts told Fox News Digital the timing was no coincidence. They said Iran was trying to preserve one of its greatest strategic advantages as new shipping routes and regional infrastructure begin chipping away at Tehran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
“The southern route creates a route they can’t toll or control,” retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery told Fox News Digital. “They felt it necessary to attack it.”
SHIPPING GIANT WARNS STRAIT OF HORMUZ CHAOS IS ‘NEW NORMAL’ AS TEHRAN SHIFTS 4M BARRELS
For decades, Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has given it influence well beyond its borders. But that advantage is increasingly under pressure as Gulf states invest in pipelines that bypass Hormuz and the United States and Oman expand use of the southern corridor.
Nearly half of inbound commercial traffic through the strait is already using that route, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.
After Iran attacked vessels using the corridor, the U.S. responded with strikes on Iranian military targets tied to maritime operations. Iran retaliated in recent days with attacks on U.S. facilities and regional partners before Trump announced both sides had agreed to halt further strikes and return to negotiations in Doha.
Iran has denied that its negotiators would be meeting with U.S. officials in Qatar on Tuesday.
Iran’s latest attacks on commercial shipping came just as the United States and Oman were beginning to steer more vessels through a new southern shipping corridor hugging Oman’s coastline — an alternative route designed to move traffic farther from Iran’s immediate reach.(Shady Alassar/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Former Navy Fifth Fleet commander, Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, said Iran’s objective isn’t necessarily to halt shipping altogether.
“The IRGC has been trying to make it commercially unworkable,” Donegan told Fox News Digital, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “These attacks on shipping to me aren’t random. They’re strategy.”
Rather than closing the strait outright, Donegan said, Iran only needs to keep insurance premiums high enough that commercial shipping companies remain reluctant to return.
“Their strategy is to enforce their control of the straits,” he said, by driving up insurance costs while continuing to “test the U.S. resolve.”
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The question now is whether Iran can translate that military pressure into lasting influence over the strait.
Under the memorandum of understanding negotiated after the ceasefire, Iran, Oman and the Gulf littoral states are expected to negotiate the strait’s “future administration and maritime services” while commercial traffic moves toll-free for 60 days.
President Donald Trump has insisted on social media that there will be “NO TOLLS” after the negotiating period expires, even though the memorandum itself does not explicitly guarantee that outcome. Asked about the discrepancy, Trump argued that “common sense” and the threat of renewed U.S. military action would keep Iran from interfering with commercial traffic.
Iran, however, has signaled a different vision. An IRGC-linked news outlet portrayed last-minute revisions to the agreement — including language governing the strait’s future administration and the temporary toll provision — as negotiating victories for Tehran.
The White House could not immediately be reached for comment ahead of Tuesday’s negotiations.
America’s Gulf partners have made equally clear they are not interested in rewriting the status quo.
“The management of the strait was working fine before the conflict,” Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said. “Why should we now, as a result of a conflict, accept some novel arrangement?”
The disagreement reflects competing visions of what Iran’s role in the strait looks like once the fighting ends.
Former Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker said the negotiations reflect Iran’s effort to emerge from the conflict with “a new status quo in the Persian Gulf.”
But preserving leverage over the Strait is about more than commercial shipping.
Iranian missiles are seen targeting Israel during the recent conflict.(Pool via WANA/Reuters)
“Iran is trying to basically step into that void,” said Clionadh Raleigh, executive director of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project.
Raleigh argued the conflict has left Gulf governments questioning whether “the U.S. is a partner that’s unreliable,” creating an opportunity for Tehran to argue that Gulf security should increasingly be managed by countries in the region rather than by Washington.
Those doubts are already reshaping regional strategy.
“They’re seeking to really develop their own defense posture,” Raleigh said. “And they’re also seeking alternative means for them to continue trade.”
Those efforts have been underway for years, but the latest conflict has accelerated them.
Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in the East-West Pipeline linking Gulf oil fields to the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates has expanded export capacity through Fujairah, allowing crude exports to bypass Hormuz altogether.
The U.S. military enforced a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire.(U.S. Central Command)
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Every barrel that leaves the Gulf without transiting the strait — and every ship that safely uses the southern corridor — chips away at the leverage Iran has historically derived from one of the world’s most important maritime choke points.
If those alternatives continue to expand, Iran’s ability to wield the strait as a strategic pressure point could gradually diminish even if Hormuz itself remains one of the world’s most vital energy corridors.
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