2026-06-26T11:05:21.293Z / 路透社
- 摘要
- 太阳能企业争相在截止日期前锁定税收抵免，形成了长达数年的项目储备
- 早期数据显示，取消补贴可能会使可再生能源价格上涨40%至120%
- 项目开发商表示，随着电力需求和电价飙升，即使没有税收抵免，太阳能也将具备竞争力
6月26日（路透社）——美国太阳能开发商已为一批规模足以使当前产能翻倍的项目锁定了联邦补贴，他们争相赶在7月4日截止日期前完成手续，否则可再生电力成本可能大幅上涨。
这些预测反映出，价值至少相当于项目成本30%的宝贵可再生能源税收抵免即将失效，这一变化可能会在人工智能推动的电力需求激增背景下推高美国能源价格。
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根据LevelTen能源公司的分析，这项实施了20年的补贴计划将逐步取消，这一调整是根据唐纳德·特朗普总统2025年的税法加速推进的，可能会使风电和太阳能的合同价格上涨40%至50%，而德克萨斯州的早期数据显示，部分交易的价格上涨了120%。
这一转变之际，特朗普政府的政策正试图放缓可再生能源开发，增加对化石燃料的依赖，尽管天然气涡轮机供应存在瓶颈，且要求联邦为煤炭提供支持的压力与日俱增。
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普多次辩称，太阳能和风能等可再生能源成本过高、获得了不公平补贴，且不如化石燃料可靠，因为它们依赖风力或日照。白宫未立即回应置评请求。
能源研究公司伍德·麦肯齐的数据显示，即将到来的税收抵免取消已经形成了超过200吉瓦太阳能装机容量的储备，这些项目已有效锁定税收抵免额度，几乎足以使美国当前的太阳能装机规模翻倍。太阳能是美国增长最快的电力来源。
未能在该储备项目中签订合同的买家将面临高得多的成本。
“这应该给那些持观望态度的人敲响警钟，”连接可再生电力买卖双方的LevelTen公司高级经理康纳·瓦莱克说道，“在税收抵免悬崖面前，未来并非一片光明。”
由于项目开发商争相通过“安全港”条款来保留税收抵免资格，相关数据仍处于初步阶段。这些条款包括在7月4日前启动现场施工、购买关键设备、记录工作时长或投入部分项目成本。根据联邦税收规定，完成这些设施建设有四年的窗口期，其中许多项目仍在寻找电力买家。
LevelTen表示，合同提案越来越多地包含无补贴成本估算，因为处于早期开发阶段的项目可能无法获得税收抵免资格。
投资公司拉扎德2025年的一份分析显示，即使没有补贴，公用事业规模太阳能和陆上风能仍是最便宜的发电形式。社区和工业太阳能装置也能与天然气和核电站竞争。
成本更高但仍具竞争力
太阳能项目开发商表示，他们的一线希望在于，由于数据中心需求推动电价飙升，未来几年不包含税收抵免的可再生能源将比零售电价更便宜。
“我们可以启动项目……三年后就能达到如今的盈利水平，因为我们业务所在地区的能源价格已经大幅上涨，且没有放缓的迹象，”科罗拉多州杜兰戈市的商业太阳能开发商King Energy首席执行官约翰·威切尔说道。
开发商已经在为新市场做规划。
加州欧文市的商业太阳能开发商Revel Energy已为约10个项目锁定了税收抵免，但该公司通常每年完成15个项目。
该公司数字营销经理泰勒·克罗斯诺表示，没有税收抵免的情况下，安装太阳能的客户可能需要五到六年才能收回投资，而目前这一时间约为三年。
能源政策研究组织能源创新公司表示，这批积压项目预计将支撑美国整个十年的装机量，该机构预测，到2030年代初，新的公用事业规模装机量将出现收缩。
“这不可避免地会推高价格，”帮助部落开发能源资产的Woven Energy合伙人杰克·舒勒说道。
路透社记者尼科拉·格鲁姆报道；林肯·菲斯特编辑
我们的标准：汤森路透信托原则。
Trump clean energy tax credit cutoff drives project rush as prices set to soar
2026-06-26T11:05:21.293Z / Reuters
- Summary
- Solar companies rushed to secure tax credits before deadline, creating a years-long project pipeline
- Early data shows ending subsidies could raise renewable energy prices 40–120%
- Project developers say solar will be competitive without tax credits as electricity demand and prices surge
June 26 (Reuters) – U.S. solar developers have secured federal subsidies for a wave of projects large enough to nearly double current capacity, rushing to beat a July 4 deadline that could send renewable power costs sharply higher.
The projections reflect the loss of valuable renewable energy tax credits worth at least 30% of project costs, a change that threatens to raise U.S. energy prices amid surging demand driven by artificial intelligence.
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The phaseout of the 20-year-old subsidies, accelerated under President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax law, could drive contract prices for wind and solar energy up by 40% to 50%, with early data from Texas showing prices for some deals up 120%, according to an analysis by LevelTen Energy.
The shift comes as Trump administration policies seek to slow renewable energy development, increasing reliance on fossil fuels despite natural gas turbine supply bottlenecks and mounting pressure for federal support for coal.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly argued that renewable energy sources like solar and wind are too expensive, receive unfair subsidies, and are less reliable than fossil fuels because they depend on the wind blowing or the sun shining. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The looming tax credit loss has created a pipeline of more than 200 gigawatts of solar capacity with credits effectively secured, according to energy research firm Wood Mackenzie — nearly enough to double the current U.S. solar fleet. Solar is the fastest growing U.S. electricity source.
Buyers that fail to secure contracts with projects in that pipeline will face far higher costs.
“It should give caution to folks that are waiting on the sideline,” said Connor Valaik, a senior manager at LevelTen, which connects renewable electricity sellers and buyers. “The future is not the rosiest with this tax credit cliff.”
The data is preliminary because project developers have rushed to preserve tax credit eligibility by “safe harboring,” which can include starting site construction work, buying key equipment, logging worker hours or spending a portion of project costs, before July 4. Under federal tax rules there is a four-year window to complete those facilities, many of which are still seeking buyers for their power.
Contract proposals are increasingly including subsidy-free cost estimates because projects in early stages of development may not be able to clinch tax credit eligibility, LevelTen said.
Even without subsidies, utility-scale solar and onshore wind are the cheapest forms of energy generation, according to a 2025 analysis by investment firm Lazard. Community and industrial solar installations are also competitive with natural gas and nuclear power plants.
MORE EXPENSIVE BUT STILL COMPETITIVE
Solar project developers said their silver lining is that renewable energy, excluding the tax credits, will be less expensive than retail power in the coming years due to soaring electricity prices driven by data center demand.
“We can initiate projects… at the same level of profitability in three years that we can today, because the price of energy has already escalated so dramatically in the areas that we’re doing business in, with no sign of slowing down,” said John Witchel, CEO of Durango, Colorado-based commercial solar developer King Energy.
Developers are already planning for a new market.
Revel Energy, a commercial solar developer in Irvine, California, has secured tax credits for about 10 projects, but typically does 15 a year.
Tyler Crossno, the company’s digital marketing manager, said customers installing solar will likely break even on their investment in five to six years without the tax credit, versus around three years currently.
The backlog is expected to sustain U.S. installations through the end of the decade, according to energy policy research organization Energy Innovation, which forecasts new utility-scale capacity will contract in the early 2030s.
“That is inevitably going to drive prices up,” said Jake Schueller, a partner with Woven Energy, which helps tribes develop energy assets.
Reporting by Nichola Groom; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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