2026-06-24T06:00:02-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：安妮·布莱森
2026年6月24日 / 美国东部时间早上6:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
顶尖拉丁裔政治策略师正在审视那些拉丁裔选民可能发挥超比例作用的本届中期选举选区，他们认为拉丁裔的选票在多个国会众议院选区中将至关重要。
“众议院的选区地图尤其对拉丁裔群体极为有利，”专门研究拉丁裔选民的政治数据公司Equis Research的联合创始人卡洛斯·奥迪奥说道。他随后逐一列举了中期选举中几大竞争激烈的选区，这些选区的西班牙裔人口占比很高，将决定国会多数席位的归属。
在周二于华盛顿特区举办的拉丁裔选民峰会上，两党拉丁裔政治策略师、民调专家和竞选幕僚齐聚一堂，讨论生活成本议题以及即将到来的秋季选举中的拉丁裔政治影响力。此次峰会的背景是，拉丁裔选民在2024年大选中转向支持特朗普总统，而民主党正努力在参众两院控制权竞争激烈的当下重新争取这一群体的支持。
奥迪奥表示，得克萨斯州民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科与共和党人肯·帕克斯顿之间的高风险参议院席位争夺，可能会受到该州拉丁裔选民的重大影响。据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻出口民调显示，2024年该州拉丁裔选民中有55%支持特朗普。但自那以来，近期民调显示许多得克萨斯州西班牙裔选民已不再倾向共和党。
“尤其是得克萨斯州的选区地图，拉丁裔选民的支持倾向将决定共和党能否净赚四个参议院席位，还是民主党能保持席位持平甚至多拿下一个民主党席位，”奥迪奥说道。
据美国最大的拉丁裔民权与倡导组织“联合美国”（UnidosUS）汇编的数据，2024年得克萨斯州约四分之一的登记选民为拉丁裔。在该州一些竞争最激烈的众议院选区，这一比例甚至更高。
加利福尼亚州民主党参议员亚历克斯·帕迪利亚在峰会上指出，佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和路易斯安那州等地的拉丁裔人口也在快速增长——该关键选民群体更高的投票率可能会对前线国会选区选举产生重大影响。
“佐治亚州是目前参议院席位地图上最大的战场州，该州拉丁裔人口超过百万，这出乎我们意料，”帕迪利亚在谈及民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫寻求连任的关键参议院席位竞争时说道。“看看北卡罗来纳州不断增长的拉丁裔人口。再看看路易斯安那州，你可能想不到有多少拉丁裔人口，但新奥尔良现在已经有一位拉丁裔市长了。”
“我们遍布所有有工作机会的地方。我们在那里，人数在增长，影响力也在提升。如果我们齐心协力、团结协作，那么我们社群的政治影响力只会持续增强，声音也会越来越响亮，迫使美国首都的政治势力予以关注并加以解决，”帕迪利亚说道。
距离选举仅剩不到五个月，来自加州、得克萨斯州等地的参与者在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示，拉丁裔选民最关心的核心问题依然是经济负担能力。
“经济，还是经济，归根结底是经济，”当被问及西班牙裔选民最关心的议题时，奥迪奥如此回应。
他表示，近期数据显示民主党可能正在夺回过去几届选举中失去的部分拉丁裔选民支持，但他不确定能挽回多少。
多位专家表示，经济焦虑正推动西班牙裔选民参与投票，其方式与2018年如出一辙。当年民主党得益于“蓝色浪潮”选举，在众议院斩获40多个席位。
相比之下，2022年共和党拿下数个席位，以微弱优势赢得众议院控制权。尽管民主党击退了共和党的大规模浪潮，但当年拉丁裔选民的支持倾向偏离了民主党。据出口民调数据，2024年近一半的西班牙裔选民投票支持特朗普，其中包括多数西班牙裔男性选民。
“这表明虽然当前的选民参与度尚未达到2018年的水平，但正越来越接近那个水准，”奥迪奥在谈及拉丁裔选民的参与度时说道。“这意味着民主党应该能夺回不少失去的支持。但最终他们是更接近2022年的局面，还是2018年的局面，这非常关键，因为许多选举的结果将取决于这两种优势差距之间的差别。”
拉丁裔选民仍将通胀等经济状况视为首要关切问题——奥迪奥表示，特朗普在经济治理方面的支持率低于2018年同期水平。
但曾在特朗普赢下的战场州赢得激烈参议院席位的亚利桑那州民主党参议员鲁文·加列戈表示，民主党绝不能想当然地认为拉丁裔选民会支持自己。
“民主党仍然不明白，如果没有拉丁裔选民加入联盟，就不存在所谓的全国性民主党，而要做到这一点，你必须回应拉丁裔选民的实际诉求，而不是你期望他们成为的样子，”加列戈说道。
“一直以来，一些极端自由派组织、捐助者和团体都希望拉丁裔成为自由派，但事实并非所有人都是如此，”加列戈说道。
除中期选举外，谈及2028年大选时，加列戈回应了关于共和党潜在总统候选人的问题。
“如果马可·卢比奥成为美国总统候选人，我们就麻烦了，”他在谈及特朗普时期的古巴裔美国国务卿时说道。“如果卢比奥参选，共和党能争取到的选民地盘将大幅缩小。倒不是因为他的政策会有多好——我们会全方位抨击他，显然会指出他在政策上的糟糕之处，但毫无疑问，确实会有一部分选民会为主要政党推出首位拉丁裔总统候选人而感到兴奋。”
精通西班牙裔投票趋势与行为的共和党政治顾问迈克·马德里也同意加列戈的观点。
“共和党与拉丁裔选民的联系比人们意识到的要牢固得多，”曾批评特朗普政府的马德里在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时说道。“像马可·卢比奥这样的候选人，我认为对共和党来说是一笔巨大的财富，拥有巨大的优势。”
马德里补充道，如果共和党在即将到来的中期选举中在佐治亚州或北卡罗来纳州等拉丁裔人口众多的州表现不佳，2028年大选推出的拉丁裔候选人可能会让更多州重新成为摇摆州。
“我认为如果共和党失去众议院甚至参议院控制权，他们将会审视270张选举人票的选举地图，并问道：‘谁能赢得这场选举？’”马德里说道。“推出拉丁裔候选人将让这些州重新进入竞争行列，我认为马可·卢比奥将成为他们最大的优势之一。而加列戈参议员也承认了这一点，这本身就说明问题。”
乔·沃尔什为本报道撰稿。
Latino voters could be key to midterms. What’s driving them? “The economy, and the economy, and the economy.”
2026-06-24T06:00:02-0400 / CBS News
By Anne Bryson,
June 24, 2026 / 6:00 AM EDT / CBS News
Leading Latino political strategists are examining the races where Latinos could play an outsize role in this year’s midterm elections, and believe their votes will be critical in a number of House races.
“The House map especially is very Latino,” said Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, a political data firm that specializes in Latino voters. He went on to tick off a list of competitive districts across the midterm landscape, with a high population of Hispanic voters, that could determine who wins the majority in Congress.
At Tuesday’s Latino Vote Summit in Washington, D.C., Latino political strategists, pollsters and campaign operatives from both sides of the aisle gathered to discuss cost-of-living issues and Latino political power heading into the fall. The backdrop is Latino voters’ swing toward President Trump in 2024 — and Democrats’ efforts to win them back during a tightly contested race for control of the House and Senate.
Odio said the high-stakes Senate race in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton could be heavily influenced by the state’s Latino voters, who supported Mr. Trump with a 55% majority in the 2024 election, according to CBS News exit polls. Since then, recent polls show that many Texas Hispanics have swung away from Republicans.
“Texas’ map, in particular, is a place where, where Latinos land could be the difference between Republicans netting four Senate seats and Democrats walking away either even or walking away with one Democratic seat,” Odio said.
Roughly one in four registered voters in Texas in 2024 were Latino, according to data compiled by UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization. That percentage is even higher in some of the state’s most competitive House districts.
Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla of California noted at the event that the Latino population is also rapidly growing in places like Georgia, North Carolina and Louisiana — where higher voter turnout from that critical electorate could have a significant impact in frontline congressional races.
“Georgia, the biggest battleground state on the Senate map right now, more than a million Latinos in Georgia, that’s a surprise to us,” Padilla said, referring to a key Senate battleground race where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection. “Look at North Carolina’s growing Latino population. Look at Louisiana, you wouldn’t think big numbers, but New Orleans now has a Latina mayor.”
“We’re everywhere where there’s work. We’re there, and we’re growing in numbers, and we’re growing in impact, and if we collectively do our job right and put together on this, then the political impact of our community will only continue to be louder and stronger, and force the political forces of this nation’s capital to pay attention and to address it,” Padilla said.
With fewer than five months until the elections, the main issue for Latinos continues to be affordability, according to participants from across the country, including California and Texas, who spoke to CBS News.
“The economy, and the economy, and the economy,” said Odio, when asked about the top issue for Hispanics.
He said recent data suggests Democrats may be regaining some of the ground they lost with Latino voters over the past several election cycles, though he’s not sure how much.
Several experts said economic anxiety is driving Hispanic voter engagement in much the same way it did in 2018, when Democrats benefited from a “blue wave” election and gained more than 40 seats in the House.
By comparison, in 2022, Republicans picked up a handful of seats and narrowly won control of the House, and although Democrats staved off a large-scale GOP wave, Latino voters trended away from Democrats that year. By 2024, almost half of Hispanics voted for Mr. Trump, including a majority of Hispanic men, according to exit polling data.
“It does suggest that you’re headed not quite to 2018, but it’s getting closer to that vicinity,” Odio said of engagement by Latino voters. “That means Democrats should recover a lot of the support they’ve lost. But whether they end up closer to a 2022 scenario or a 2018 scenario is really important, because a lot of elections will be decided by the difference between those two margins.”
Latino voters continue to view economic conditions, like inflation, as their top concern — and Mr. Trump’s ratings on his handling of the economy are weaker than they were at about the same point in 2018, Odio said.
But Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who won his competitive Senate race in a battleground state that Mr. Trump won, said Hispanic voters cannot be taken for granted by the Democratic Party.
“The Democratic Party still does not understand that there is no national Democratic Party without the Latino vote being part of that coalition, and part of that is that you have to answer to where the Latino voter is, not where you want the Latino voter to be,” Gallego said.
“There has been this want by special, very liberal organizations and very liberal donors and very liberal groups that they want Latinos to be liberal, and the fact is not all of them are,” Gallego said.
Looking beyond the midterms to 2028, Gallego fielded a question about potential GOP presidential contenders.
“If Marco Rubio is the nominee to be president of the United States, we’re in trouble,” he said, referring to Mr. Trump’s Cuban American secretary of state. “You’re playing with a lot less territory if Rubio is on the ticket, not because his policies are going to be great — we’re going to hit him on everything we can — obviously, about how bad he is on that — but there is some voter out there without a doubt that’s just going to be excited about having the first Latino candidate running for president on a major ticket.”
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant with an expertise in Hispanic voting trends and behavior, agrees with Gallego.
“The Republican Party is much stronger with Latinos than people realize,” Madrid, who has been a critic of the Trump administration, told CBS News. “Having somebody like Marco Rubio, I think, is a huge asset, huge advantage for the Republicans.”
Madrid added that if Republicans perform poorly in states with large Latino populations like Georgia or North Carolina in the upcoming midterms, a Latino candidate in 2028 could keep more states in play.
“I think when they lose the House and potentially the Senate, Republicans are going to be looking at the 270 map and saying, ‘who can win this,’” Madrid said. “Having a Latino candidate is going to bring those back into contention and I think Marco Rubio emerges as one of their best advantages, and to hear Senator Gallego acknowledge that says something.”
Joe Walsh contributed to this report.
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