2026年6月21日 / 美国东部时间上午9:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
詹妮弗·德·平托、弗雷德·巴克斯 报道
美国人确实希望伊朗战争结束——尤其是那些受油价上涨冲击最严重的人群——如今许多人看到了油价降低的希望。
但眼下的停火协议也伴随着一种看法：美国的行动未能在战略或经济利益上取得成功，也不值得为之付出代价。
具体而言，大多数美国人怀疑伊朗的核计划并未被永久终止，且伊朗不会停止威胁其邻国。
总统所在政党的共和党基层中也有不少人持怀疑态度。
公众也不相信特朗普政府认为其既定目标已经达成；相反，他们认为本届政府主要是急于结束战争。
因此，相对较少的美国人认为美国在新协议中占了上风。
进一步而言，几乎没人认为美国让伊朗民众变得安全自由，或是将伊朗领导层更换为亲美政权。（在战争期间，许多美国人曾表示这些应当是美国的战争目标。）
评估伊朗局势
大多数人认为伊朗仍将威胁该地区的邻国。
……而且这场冲突并不值得付出代价……
总体而言，很少有人认为美国在推进经济或战略利益方面取得了成功。
总统所在的共和党基础内部存在分歧？
总统所在政党内部就后续行动方针存在一些分歧。
多达四成的共和党人认为，冲突应当持续到伊朗做出更多让步为止：这部分群体还压倒性地认为，让伊朗现政权继续掌权是不可接受的。
在这些观点背后，共和党人在评估美国是否永久终止了伊朗核计划、或是阻止了伊朗威胁该地区这两个问题上存在分歧，同时在协议是平局还是美国占优的问题上也存在分歧。
协议达成的时机
大多数美国人认为政府并未充分预见到此举对全球经济的反应。
这反映出公众对政府选择此时达成协议的理由认知：民众并不相信政府认为美国已经达成了其目标，而是认为政府只是优先考虑现在结束战争。
但油价降低的前景似乎至少帮助稳定了总统的整体支持率，以及他在处理伊朗问题上的具体表现评分。
随着近几个月油价上涨，总统的支持率有所下滑。停火协议让其支持率小幅回升1个百分点，但并未恢复到战前水平，这一提升主要来自非大学学历白人选民，尤其是那些认为油价将会下跌的该群体选民。这一群体原本就倾向于支持总统，但在民调中时常表示，油价上涨对他们的经济打击沉重。
越是认为油价上涨给自己带来困难的民众，越倾向于支持立刻结束战争。
接下来会怎样？
民众希望战争结束的部分原因与油价有关，如今更多人预计油价会下跌而非继续上涨。
（仍有不少美国人认为局势可能生变，多达40%的人认为伊朗会继续威胁并封锁霍尔木兹海峡。）
这一切都发生在公众对伊朗整体处境普遍感到不确定的背景下。略多于三分之一的美国人认为伊朗如今整体实力有所减弱，同样比例的人认为其实力与冲突爆发前持平。
重要的是，尽管对油价存在诸多担忧，但这并非美国人唯一关心的问题。伊朗的核计划对他们而言同样重要。
这又与美国人认为伊朗领导层并未发生变化的看法相关联。一半的人表示，与伊朗现政权达成停火协议是不可接受的。这一群体更有可能认为伊朗会威胁其邻国。
总体而言，鉴于这种不确定性以及对目标未达成的认知，民众倾向于认为这场冲突带来的问题多于解决的问题。
本次哥伦比亚广播公司新闻/舆观民调通过全国代表性样本完成，共采访了2519名美国成年人，采访时间为2026年6月17日至19日。样本根据性别、年龄、种族、教育程度进行加权，以匹配全国成年人口结构，权重依据美国人口普查局美国社区调查和当前人口调查数据，以及2024年总统选举投票结果。误差幅度为±2.4个百分点。
CBS News poll finds Americans want Iran war ended, but few say U.S. got better of agreement
June 21, 2026 / 9:00 AM EDT / CBS News
By Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus
Americans do want the Iran war to end — especially those hardest hit by gas prices — and many see hope for lower prices now.
But an ending now also comes with views that the U.S. effort did not succeed in its strategic or economic interests and has not been worth the costs.
Specifically, most Americans suspect Iran’s nuclear program has n ot been permanently stopped, and that Iran will not stop threatening its neighbors.
Plenty in the president’s Republican rank-and-file are unconvinced, too.
Nor is the public persuaded that the Trump administration feels goals were met, either; rather, that the administration is mainly looking to end the war.
And so, relatively few Americans think the U.S. is getting the better of the new agreement.
Further, few feel the U.S. has made Iran’s people safe and free or changed Iran’s leadership to one that is pro-U.S. (Those are items that over the course of the war, many Americans said should be U.S. aims.)
Assessing the situation in Iran
A majority believe Iran will still threaten its neighbors in the region.
… and that the conflict hasn’t been worth the costs…
And on balance, relatively few see success in advancing U.S. economic or strategic interests.
Splits within the president’s GOP base?
There are some divisions inside the president’s party about the approach from here.
A sizable four in 10 Republicans say the conflict should continue until Iran gives up more: that subgroup also overwhelmingly thinks it’s not acceptable to leave the current regime in power in Iran.
Behind these sentiments, Republicans are split in assessing whether the U.S. has permanently stopped Iran’s nuclear program or stopped Iran from threatening the region, and split over whether the agreement constitutes an even draw or the U.S. got the better of it.
Timing of the agreement
Most Americans feel the administration did not fully anticipate the reaction in the world’s economy.
That speaks to public perceptions of the administration’s rationale on the timing of it all: The public is not convinced the administration thinks the U.S. met its goals, but rather that it is simply prioritizing ending the conflict now.
But the prospect of lower gas prices appears to have helped at least stabilize the president’s overall approval ratings and his handling of the Iran situation specifically.
As gas prices rose in recent months, the president’s approval rating had ticked lower. Ending the conflict finds a slight one-point rise back up, though not to its pre-war levels, helped primarily by improvements from non-college Whites, and particularly those among them who think gas prices will go down. This has been a group that is inclined to support the president, but has often noted in polling that financially, price hikes have hit them hard.
The more people say gas prices have been difficult, the more likely they are to say end the war now.
What’s next?
Desires for the war to end have partially to do with gas prices, which more people now expect to go down, rather than continue to rise.
(Plenty of Americans think that could change just the same, with a sizable 40% feeling Iran will continue to threaten and block the Strait of Hormuz.)
This comes amid a collective uncertainty about Iran’s standing, more generally. Just over a third of the country think Iran is weaker overall now, and just as many think it is the same as it was before the conflict.
Importantly, for all the consternation around gas prices, they aren’t the only thing Americans are concerned about. Iran’s nuclear program is just as important to them.
That, in turn, is connected to what Americans perceive as a lack of change in Iran’s leadership. Half say it’s not acceptable to end the war with the current leaders in place. This group is relatively more likely to think Iran will threaten its neighbors.
And on net, given the uncertainty and perceptions of unmet goals, people tend to think the conflict created more problems than it solved.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,519 U.S. adults interviewed between June 17-19, 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.4 points.
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