2026-06-19T04:01:25.320Z / 美国有线电视新闻网
副总统J·D·万斯主动争取同时主导谈判和推动与伊朗达成和平协议的牵头工作。
该协议激怒了鹰派共和党人，其中许多人指责本届政府向伊朗妥协。
对于这位以反战立场闻名的万斯而言，此举对他来说是一场重大风险，他被视为2028年总统大选的热门候选人。原定于瑞士举行的正式签署仪式已经泡汤。
副总统J·D·万斯欣然抓住机会，成为旨在结束数月不受欢迎的对伊战争的和平协议代言人。考虑到本届政府此前数月试图迫使德黑兰让步却收效甚微，这是一项重大风险。
过去一周让这项决定看起来愈发凶险——这原本可能成为万斯的职业生涯高光时刻，如今却可能演变为他和任何2028年竞选野心的潜在失误。
原定于周五举行的正式面对面峰会在最后一刻搁浅，万斯于周四晚间取消了前往瑞士的航班。共和党鹰派大声抗议政府不立即公布具体文本的决定，在看到文本后，他们更是一致批评该协议对伊朗过于宽松。一名共和党参议员将其称为“数十年来最糟糕的外交政策失误”。而唐纳德·特朗普总统和万斯就未来路径发表了相互矛盾的表态，包括如果伊朗违反协议将会采取何种行动。
部分怒火直接指向万斯——这位以反战著称的副总统，本周在十多档电视节目和播客中大力宣扬该协议是重大胜利，尽管有迹象表明该协议几乎无法立即实现美国的核心目标。
“有人告诉J·D·万斯，糟糕的协议总比没有协议好，”一位前特朗普政府高级官员说道。“显然，当事情搞砸时，显然没人愿意背这个锅。”
这场批评是万斯遭遇的又一次战时打击，他一直小心翼翼地处理自己在这场冲突中的参与度，而他从一开始就私下对这场战争持保留态度。
如果他决定参选总统，这还可能使他的总统竞选之路复杂化。这位副总统曾直言不讳地批评外国战争，如今却强硬捍卫对伊攻势——尽管他仍在私下寻求和平途径。
这种立场让外部盟友感到不安，他们曾视他为共和党干预主义阵营的壁垒，其中包括国务卿、潜在2028年竞选对手马可·卢比奥。同时，这也惹恼了本届政府内部的一些人，两名高级顾问称其“持反对态度，认为他的逆反倾向可能会使围绕战争的决策复杂化。
特朗普密切关注万斯在伊朗问题上的进展，并经常向朋友和顾问询问万斯和卢比奥的对比情况，周三在新闻发布会上半开玩笑地承认了万斯的困境。
“如果谈判成功，我会居功，”特朗普在谈到这份和平协议时说道。“要是搞砸了，我就骂J·D。”
万斯将该协议是美国结束战争的最佳选择，他在周四的简报会上表示：“人们说伊朗永远不会改变其行为方式。好吧，也许这是真的，如果真是这样，他们就无法获得协议中的任何好处。但难道不值得一试吗？”
万斯还淡化了此举对个人野心的影响，坚称自己尚未考虑2028年竞选，并表示他参与谈判只是为了帮助两国达成可接受的停火协议。
“如果协议破裂、协议彻底失败、协议极不受欢迎，那么万斯就会成为替罪羊，”万斯的盟友、《美国保守派》执行董事柯特·米尔斯说道。他曾辩称发动战争是严重的政治误判。“但默认选项就是一场灾难。如果本届政府如此不受欢迎，万斯也不可能当选总统。”
早在战争爆发前，万斯就一直寻求成为和谈的核心角色，有时会让同事们担心此举可能影响未来的总统竞选。
2月27日，万斯会见了阿曼外交大臣，试图避免与伊朗开战，却眼睁睁看着特朗普次日发动一系列空袭，推翻了该国领导层。
在战争初期通过秘密渠道寻求最终通过谈判解决问题后，万斯随后争取在与伊朗政权的首次面对面会谈中发挥作用。白宫官员同意了，认为他的存在将有助于确保伊朗派出本国高级官员参会。
尽管如此，当时一些白宫官员担心，如果谈判失败，允许万斯率领美国代表团前往巴基斯坦将是一个政治失误——而最终确实如此，当时引发了一波负面报道。
“他没有深思熟虑，”一位白宫高级官员在谈到伊斯兰堡峰会时说道，认为这位副总统需要对可能影响2028年竞选的决策时需要更具策略性。“他把自己推到了风口浪尖，然后《纽约时报》的头条是‘万斯惨败’。”
但这次挫折似乎并未改变万斯的做法。他原计划在会谈取消前再次前往巴基斯坦进行第二轮会谈。官员们表示，自那以后，万斯一直密切参与了数周的审议，最终促成了本周的谅解备忘录。
一位了解内部对话的消息人士称，万斯当时正在宣传他的新书，并在最近几天向特朗普明确表示，他希望牵头宣传该协议。
一名高级官员表示，特朗普鼓励万斯发挥核心作用。而在协议达成后，几乎没有其他信使可供选择；参与谈判的其他大多数高级官员都在海外陪同特朗普参加七国集团峰会。
随后，万斯展开了为期多天的媒体宣传攻势，将该协议描述为“美国人民的重大胜利”，称其为美国对伊朗施加了更大的影响力。
“如果伊朗遵守该协议，它将从根本上改变中东地区，”协议公布后不久，万斯在接受福克斯新闻采访时说道。
然而，随着时间推移，批评声越来越大。曾主张对伊朗开战的保守派评论员马克·蒂森将该协议称为“万斯和平协议”，同时谴责任何最终停火协议中可能为伊朗设立3000亿美元基金的做法“完全是灾难性的”。
民主党议员和一些共和党人抨击该协议解除了对伊朗的关键制裁，却没有迫使伊朗政权在核计划方面做出任何具体让步。路易斯安那州参议员比尔·卡西迪在周三公布文本后严厉批评该框架，在X平台上发文称“里根在坟墓里都要翻身了”。
“战前，霍尔木兹海峡畅通无阻，伊朗因制裁而濒临崩溃，还有13名军人还活着。现在，13名美国人死亡，民众在加油站多付了数十亿美元，制裁将被解除，而轰炸已经停止，”卡西迪继续说道。“这是数十年来最糟糕的外交政策失误。”
此后更多共和党议员加入批评行列，参议院军事委员会主席罗杰·威克谴责该协议“完全不符合总统的目标。这位密西西比州共和党人还表示，协议文本中提到的给伊朗的3000亿美元基金，相比之下，让奥巴马政府2015年伊朗协议中广受批评的“赎金”“看起来都微不足道。
在一片质疑声中，白宫内外的消息人士坚称，万斯并没有被晾在一边，试图推销一份注定失败的协议，而特朗普认为该协议已经让美国走上了胜利之路。
至于万斯最直言不讳的批评者，一位特朗普阵营的消息人士称他们在很大程度上与白宫对他的表现评价以及他的政治未来无关。该消息人士认为，他们在政府内部几乎没有影响力，尤其是在官员们审查了早期民调显示选民对和平协议的热情。
“总统和副总统为和平进程提供机会，实际上并没有真正的下行风险，”该消息人士说道。“事实上，他们还因此获得了赞誉。”
然而，万斯的一些支持者仍对他急于接手一份可能在夏末前就分崩离析的协议感到有些沮丧。
“如果我是他的政治顾问，我会告诉他静观其变，”一位接近白宫的共和党幕僚告诉美国有线电视新闻网。
其他人指出，随着审查加剧，卢比奥明显淡出了聚光灯。本周，这位国务卿本周在一场主要围绕伊朗协议的新闻发布会上站在特朗普身后，但他全程面无表情，一言不发。
“卢比奥在这里处于非常有利的位置，”一位前特朗普官员在谈到伊朗问题的余波时说道。
一些万斯的盟友坚称，尽管最初遭到批评，但万斯仍可能变得更强大，他在2028年大选前提升了自己的外交政策资历，同时在试图让美国摆脱一场几乎不受美国人欢迎的战争中发挥了核心作用。
“他在信息掌控上稳如泰山，这是他展示自己在外交事务上影响力的绝佳机会，”一位接近白宫的人士说道。“我确信这是他考虑过的风险，这让我对这一举措更有信心，因为他认为这是值得冒的风险。”
但就在万斯准备谈判他曾称之为里程碑的协议的下一阶段，就连他自己白宫内部的人都在贬低达成持久和平的可能性。万斯在接受“梅根·凯利秀”的采访中暗示，如果协议失败，至少霍尔木兹海峡已经畅通，“我们作为一个国家可以继续正常生活。
特朗普则持不同看法。
“如果60天内还没搞定也没关系，”特朗普周三说道。“我们回去轰炸就是了。”
‘If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD’: Vance’s risky gambit on Iran peace efforts
2026-06-19T04:01:25.320Z / CNN
Vice President JD Vance pushed to take a lead role in both negotiating and promoting a peace agreement with Iran.
The accord has angered hawkish Republicans, many of whom have accused the administration of capitulating to Iran.
It’s a serious risk for Vance, a known war skeptic, who is considered a likely presidential candidate in 2028. A formal signing in Switzerland was already derailed.
Vice President JD Vance jumped at the chance to be the face of a peace agreement designed to end months of unpopular war with Iran, a significant risk given the administration had spent months trying to get Tehran to fold with little success.
The last week has only made that decision seem more perilous — turning what could have been a career highlight into a potential blunder for Vance and any 2028 ambitions.
A formal, in-person summit planned for Friday was derailed at the last minute, with the vice president canceling his flight to Switzerland Thursday evening. GOP hawks vocally protested the administration’s decision to not share specific text immediately and, since seeing it, have roundly criticized the accord as too generous to Iran. One Republican senator described it as “the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.” And President Donald Trump and Vance have given conflicting statements about the path forward, including on what would happen if Iran violated the agreement.
Some of the ire has been directed specifically at Vance, a known war skeptic, who championed the agreement as a major victory across more than a dozen television and podcast appearances this week despite indications it would do little to immediately achieve the US’ core goals.
“Somebody has told JD Vance that a bad deal is better than no deal,” said a former senior Trump administration official. “And, clearly, nobody else wants to wear the jacket on this when it goes south.”
The criticism marks the latest wartime blow for Vance, who has delicately navigated his involvement in a conflict that he had private reservations about from the outset.
It also threatens to complicate his path to the presidency should he decide to run. Once an outspoken critic of foreign wars, the vice president has since stridently defended the Iran offensive — even as he continued to privately search for a path toward peace.
The approach has troubled outside allies who saw him as a bulwark against the GOP’s interventionist wing, including secretary of state and potential 2028 rival Marco Rubio. And it has simultaneously irritated some within the administration, who bristled at what two senior advisers described as a contrarian streak that could complicate decisionmaking surrounding the war.
Trump, who closely monitored Vance’s progress on Iran and frequently quizzed friends and advisers on how Vance and Rubio compare, semi-jokingly acknowledged the vice president’s bind during a Wednesday press conference.
“If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump said of the peace agreement. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.”
Vance has framed the agreement as the best option the country has to end the war, saying in a briefing Thursday: “People say the Iranians will never change their behavior. Well, maybe that’s true, and if so they don’t get any of the benefits of the bargain. But isn’t it worth trying?”
Vance has also downplayed the implications for his personal ambitions, insisting that he’s not yet contemplating a 2028 run and characterizing his involvement in the talks as meant solely to help get the two nations to an acceptable truce.
“There is a risk if the deal blows up, if the deal is a massive failure, if the deal is extremely unpopular, then Vance is the fall guy,” said Curt Mills, a Vance ally and executive director of The American Conservative, who’s argued going to war was a grave political miscalculation. “But the default was a disaster. JD is not going to be president if the administration is this unpopular.”
Vance has sought to be a key part of the peacemaking push since before the war began, at times prompting concern among his colleagues about the implications for a future presidential run.
Vance met with Oman’s foreign minister on February 27 in an effort to stave off war with Iran, only to watch Trump wipe out the nation’s leadership in a barrage of strikes the next day.
After spending the war’s early stages backchanneling in pursuit of an eventual negotiated settlement, Vance then pushed for a role in the first face-to-face talks with the Iranian regime. White House officials agreed, calculating that his presence would help ensure that the Iranians sent high-level officials of their own.
Still, some White House officials worried at the time that allowing Vance to lead the US delegation to Pakistan would amount to a political misstep if the talks fell through — which they eventually did, generating a wave of unflattering coverage.
“He didn’t think it through,” a senior White House official said of the Islamabad summit, arguing that the vice president needed to be more strategic about decisions that could affect a 2028 run. “He put himself at the front of the line, and then The New York Times headline is, ‘Vance loses.’”
But the setback appeared to do little to change Vance’s approach. He had planned to travel back to Pakistan for a second round of talks before they were called off. Since then, officials said, Vance has been closely involved in the weeks of deliberations that ultimately led to this week’s memorandum of understanding.
The vice president, already in the midst of promoting his new book, made clear to Trump in recent days that he wanted to take the lead in touting the agreement, a source briefed on the internal conversations said.
A senior official said Trump has encouraged Vance to take a central role. And in the wake of the agreement, there were few others options for messengers; most other senior officials involved in the talks were overseas with Trump at the G7 summit.
Vance subsequently celebrated the agreement in a multiday media blitz, portraying it as a “big win for the American people” that had handed the US greater leverage over Iran.
“If the Iranians comply with this deal, it is going to fundamentally transform the Middle East,” Vance told Fox News shortly after the pact was announced.
Yet with each successive day, the criticism has only grown louder. Marc Thiessen, a conservative commentator who had advocated war with Iran, dubbed the agreement the “Vance peace deal” while denouncing the potential creation of a $300 billion fund for Iran in any final truce as “utterly disastrous.”
Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans have slammed the agreement for lifting key sanctions on Iran without forcing any concrete concessions from the regime regarding its nuclear ambitions. And Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana excoriated the framework after text was released Wednesday, saying on X that “Reagan is rolling over in his grave.”
“Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped,” Cassidy continued. “This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”
More Republican lawmakers have since piled on, with Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker decrying the pact as “completely out of step with the president’s goals.” The Mississippi Republican also said the $300 billion fund to Iran laid out in the text made the widely criticized “payoff” under the Obama administration’s 2015 Iran deal “look like a pittance by comparison.”
Amid the wave of skepticism, sources in and around the White House insisted that Vance wasn’t being hung out to dry trying to sell a doomed agreement, and that Trump believed it’s set the US on a winning path.
As for Vance’s most vocal critics, one Trumpworld source dismissed them as largely irrelevant to the White House’s view of his performance or his political future. They have little influence within the administration, the source argued, especially as officials reviewed early polling that showed enthusiasm among voters for the peace agreement.
“There’s no real downside risk to the president and vice president for giving the peace process a chance,” the source said. “In fact, they are getting credit for it.”
Yet among some of Vance’s supporters, there is still some measure of dismay at his rush to own an accord that could easily collapse by the end of the summer.
“If I was his political adviser, I would tell him to sit back and let this play out,” one Republican operative close to the White House told CNN.
Others noted that as the scrutiny intensified, Rubio had conspicuously receded from the spotlight. The secretary of state stood behind Trump at a press conference this week that largely focused on the Iran agreement, but he remained stone-faced and silent throughout the hour.
“Rubio is being put in a very strong position here,” one former Trump official said of the Iran fallout.
Some Vance allies insisted that despite the initial criticism, the vice president could still emerge stronger, having bolstered his foreign policy credentials ahead of 2028 while playing a central role in trying to extract the US from a war that few Americans support.
“He’s a steady hand on the messaging tiller, and it’s a great opportunity for him to feature his input on foreign affairs,” said one person close to the White House. “I’m certain it’s a risk he considered, and that gives me more confidence in this because he decided it’s a risk worth taking.”
But as Vance prepared to negotiate the next phase of an agreement he’d hailed as a milestone, even those in his own White House were casting down on the odds it would lead to lasting peace. The vice president had suggested in an interview on the “Megyn Kelly Show” that if the agreement didn’t work out, then at least the Strait of Hormuz was open and “we can get on with our lives as a country.”
Trump had a different take.
“If it doesn’t get done in 60 days, that’s all right,” Trump said on Wednesday. “We go back to bombing.”
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