凯文·沃什即将主持首次美联储利率会议：值得关注的要点

Kevin Warsh set to lead his first Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Here’s what to expect.

2026-06-16T15:08:00-0400 / CBS News

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Updated on: June 16, 2026 / 3:09 PM EDT / CBS News

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold his first press conference on Wednesday, offering borrowers and investors a chance to assess his plans to keep the U.S. economy on track.

Warsh, who has vowed that the Fed will remain “strictly independent” in overseeing monetary policy, last month succeeded former chair Jerome Powell at a difficult juncture, with inflation surging to its highest level in more than three years.

At the same time, President Trump has previously underlined his eagerness for the Fed to lower interest rates, the central bank’s main tool for spurring economic growth. Yet Warsh could also benefit from some economic tailwinds, including robust job growth in recent months.

With investors overwhelmingly expecting the Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday, the focus will be on Warsh himself and his handling of the press conference that follows the central bank’s policy statement, economists told CBS News.

“The story at this meeting is not what’s going to happen with rates — that’s pretty much a foregone conclusion,” said NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter. “The most interesting thing that’s happening at this meeting is Warsh’s debut and what that means for how we see the Fed moving forward.”

Warsh, a former Fed board governor, has suggested the Federal Reserve should provide less guidance on future rate moves and expressed his view that the AI boom will boost economic productivity, helping to ease inflation and potentially supporting lower borrowing costs.

To be sure, much has changed about the economic outlook since December, when the Fed penciled in one interest rate cut for 2026. Since the Iran war started in late February, inflation has flared amid higher oil and gas prices, pushing the Consumer Price Index to an annual rate of 4.2% in May— the highest since April 2023.

Some economists now think the Fed’s next interest rate move could be to raise borrowing costs to counter rising inflation.

Relatedly, the jump in both consumer and producer prices makes it far more difficult for Warsh and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s rate-setting panel, to push for a rate cut in 2026, according to economists.

What will the Fed do with interest rates?

Economists overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, keeping the federal funds rate — what banks charge each other for short-term loans — in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, according to FactSet.

The Fed has kept its short-term rate steady throughout 2026, with its last cut occurring in December 2025.

Investors and borrowers will instead focus on Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, a report that distills the FOMC’s forecasts for unemployment, GDP growth and other barometers. The projections also include the so-called “dot plot,” which shows policymakers’ expectations for interest rates over the coming years.

The June dot-plot could “show the Fed on hold for the rest of this year,” noted Bank of America U.S. economist Aditya Bhave in a report. At least three of the FOMC’s 12 voting members may also project rate hikes this year, he added.

When is the Fed’s interest rate announcement?

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

That will be followed by a press conference with new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET, where he’ll take questions from journalists.

What will Warsh say about future interest rates?

Investors will pay particular attention to Warsh’s comments about inflation and, more broadly, the path of monetary policy, especially given Mr. Trump’s criticism of former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for moving too slowly to cut interest rates.

“Watch for questions asking Mr. Warsh to reconcile statements seeking to lower interest rates with recent trends in inflation and employment,” Jerry Tempelman, former senior analyst at the New York Federal Reserve Bank and vice president of economic and fixed income research at Mutual of America Capital Management, in an email.

Warsh will likely use the press conference to start putting his own stamp on the central bank, especially given Powell’s decision to remain a Fed governor after stepping down as chair. Although no policy changes are expected this week, investors are looking for whether Warsh will signal changes in how the Fed communicates its economic views or interprets inflation data.

“We already know it’s going to be contentious because there’s a lot of feelings out there, but he’s probably got to exert his control quicker,” Ben Fulton, CEO at investment advisor WEBs Investments, told CBS News.

Is the Fed likely to cut interest rates later this year?

That is seen as increasingly unlikely given the hottest inflation in more than three years, according to economists. Instead, the Federal Reserve is more likely to keep rates steady for the remainder of 2026 — or even usher in a rate hike to tame rising prices.

“The balance of risks has definitely shifted toward inflation being the biggest concern, and so that’s really going to drive any language around what the Fed’s next steps might be,” Renter of NerdWallet said.

She added, “In the past several Fed meetings, the language is really skewed toward that potential future cut, and I think that’s going to be missing both from the policy statement and possibly in the press conference.”