2026年6月16日 美国东部时间早上6:00 / CNN
作者：珍妮弗·阿吉埃斯塔
2小时前
发布于2026年6月16日，美国东部时间早上6:00
选举民调
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插图：阿尔贝托·米尔/CNN
内容提要
- 近一半美国人如今自视为政治独立选民，这是CNN民调十余年来测得的最高比例。
- 最新民调显示，自2024年以来，选民立场出现远离共和党的趋势，年轻选民和男性选民群体尤为明显。
- 独立选民比党派成员更年轻，政治参与度也更低，仅有67%的人完成了选民登记。
AI生成的摘要已由CNN编辑审核。
近一半美国人表示，他们不认为自己属于美国两大主要政党之一，这是CNN民调十余年来测得的最高党派独立比例。
根据CNN民调数据，独立选民占总人口的比例已达到47%，较唐纳德·特朗普首任总统任期结束后上升了约10个百分点。在过去20年里，CNN民调发现独立选民占比在2015年达到峰值，略高于当前水平：当年所有CNN民调的平均数据显示，48%的美国人是独立选民。
此次民调显示，自2024年以来，登记选民群体出现远离共和党的趋势，这对即将到来的中期选举中的共和党来说是又一个不祥之兆，因为特朗普的支持率持续下滑。
最新民调中，民主党和共和党瓜分了剩余的选民比例，27%的美国人自视为民主党人，26%自视为共和党人。不过许多独立选民确实会倾向于某一个党派，如果将倾向某一党派的独立选民计算在内，39%的美国人更偏向民主党，37%偏向共和党，还有25%的人表示自己不倾向任何一方。另有一个迹象进一步表明美国政治如今的两极分化态势：如果迫使不倾向任何党派的选民做出选择，他们的立场也几乎平分秋色。
自2021年民主党以6个百分点的优势领先共和党以来，CNN的基准民调中没有任何一方在整体党派认同上拥有明显优势。自那以后，在CNN的年度跟踪民调中，两党支持率差距始终仅为1个百分点。
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在这个中期选举年，最新民调发现，在登记选民中，民主党以微弱优势领先共和党，占比31%，共和党为28%，41%的选民表示自己不属于任何党派。尽管优势很小，但与2024年相比，这是一个显著的转向：2024年时有34%的登记选民认为自己是共和党人，31%为民主党人，35%的人表示不属于任何党派。
自2024年以来，年轻选民、男性选民以及没有大学学历的白人选民群体转向远离共和党，但不一定是转向民主党。在最新民调中，17%的45岁以下选民认为自己是共和党人，低于2024年的26%。但自称为民主党的比例基本稳定在33%，另有50%的人表示自己不属于任何党派。男性选民——尤其是年轻男性——以及没有大学学历的白人选民也出现了类似的趋势。
政治独立选民是什么样的群体？
独立选民并非都持政治中间立场。许多人至少会倾向于两大主要政党之一，此前的民调已经识别出几类不同政治参与度和意识形态立场的独立选民。
从人口统计学角度来看，独立选民在多个方面与党派支持者存在差异。独立选民明显比党派支持者更年轻——63%的无党派人士年龄在50岁以下，而民主党这一比例为52%，共和党为38%。与共和党人相比，他们更倾向于表示自己居住在城市或都会区（40%对28%），但比民主党人更不可能居住在城市（49%）。他们的收入水平也略低于党派支持者，近一半的独立选民表示其家庭年收入低于5万美元。
他们也更有可能对政治漠不关心。仅有67%的独立选民表示自己完成了选民登记，而民主党和共和党选民的登记率均超过80%；仅有25%的独立选民表示会主动关注最新的政治新闻。
此次CNN民调由SSRS于5月7日至31日在全国范围内对2480名成年人开展，结合了线上和电话采访两种方式。调查样本最初来自两个渠道——基于地址的抽样和预付费手机号码的随机-digit拨号抽样，并将两者合并。受访者通过邮件、电话或短信联系。全样本的抽样误差幅度为正负2.7个百分点。
CNN的阿里尔·爱德华兹-莱维和爱德华·吴为本报道做出了贡献。
CNN poll: Political independents hit their highest level in a decade
2026-06-16 06:00 AM ET / CNN
By Jennifer Agiesta
2 hr ago
PUBLISHED Jun 16, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Election polls
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Photo Illustration by Alberto Mier/CNN
Summary
- Nearly half of Americans now identify as political independents, the highest level in over a decade as measured by CNN polling.
- The new poll shows a shift away from Republicans since 2024, particularly among younger and male voters.
- Independents are younger and less politically engaged than party members, with only 67% registered to vote.
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
Nearly half of Americans say they don’t consider themselves a part of either major political party, the highest level of partisan independence measured by CNN polling in more than a decade.
Independents have grown to 47% of the population, rising roughly 10 points since just after President Donald Trump’s first term as president, according to CNN polling. Over the last 20 years, CNN polling found independent identification peaked in 2015 at just a shade higher than it is today: 48% of Americans on average across all CNN polling that year were independents.
The poll suggests a shift away from Republicans since 2024 among registered voters, another ominous sign for the GOP ahead of the upcoming midterm elections as Trump’s approval ratings have sagged.
Democrats and Republicans split the remainder of the population in the new poll, with 27% of Americans identifying as Democrats and 26% as Republicans. Many independents do still lean toward one party or the other, and with those leaners included, 39% of Americans align more with Democrats, 37% with Republicans, and 25% say they don’t lean either way. In a further sign of just how evenly divided American politics is today, when those who don’t lean are pushed to choose a side, they also split almost evenly.
Neither party has held a meaningful advantage in overall identification in CNN’s benchmarking polls since 2021, when Democrats held a 6-point edge over Republicans. Since then, the parties have been separated by just 1 point in each year of CNN’s tracking.
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In this midterm election year, the new poll finds that among registered voters, Democrats narrowly outnumber Republicans, 31% to 28%, with 41% of voters saying they don’t identify with either party. While the margin is small, that’s a notable shift away from the GOP compared with 2024, when 34% of registered voters considered themselves Republicans, 31% Democrats and 35% said they didn’t consider themselves a part of either party.
Since 2024, younger voters, male voters and White voters without college degrees have shifted away from the GOP, but not necessarily toward the Democrats. In the new poll, 17% of voters younger than 45 say they consider themselves Republicans, down from 26% who said the same in 2024. But the share who call themselves Democrats is fairly steady at 33%, with 50% saying they don’t consider themselves a part of either party. There are similar patterns among men – young men in particular – and White voters without college degrees.
Who are political independents?
Independents are not all politically in the middle. Many at least lean toward one of the two major parties, and previous polling has identified several types of independents with different levels of political engagement and varying ideological views.
Demographically, independents stand out from partisans in several ways. Independents are notably younger than partisans – 63% of those who don’t affiliate with a party are younger than 50, compared with 52% of Democrats and 38% of Republicans. They are more apt to say they live in a city or urban area than Republicans (40% vs. 28%), but less likely to be city-dwellers than are Democrats (49%). And their incomes tilt a bit lower than partisans, with nearly half in this category saying their annual household income falls below $50,000.
They are also far more likely to be checked out of politics. Just 67% say they are registered to vote, compared with more than 80% each among Democrats and Republicans, and only 25% say they frequently seek out the latest political news.
The CNN poll was conducted among 2,480 adults nationwide by SSRS from May 7-31, using a combination of online and telephone interviews. The survey samples were originally drawn from two sources – an address-based sample and a random-digit dial sample of prepaid cell phone numbers – and combined. Respondents were contacted by mail, phone or text. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy and Edward Wu contributed to this report.
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