2026-06-11T12:34:34.047Z / 路透社
班加罗尔6月11日电（路透社）——据路透社对房产专家的调查显示，高抵押贷款利率将在今年和明年持续压制美国住宅住房市场的成交量，同时房价涨幅将极为温和，这与特朗普政府重振住房市场的目标背道而驰。
作为多数美国住房贷款基准的30年期固定抵押贷款利率，近几个月来一直在6.6%左右徘徊。这远高于过去十年4.3%的平均水平，且预计短期内不会出现有意义的回落。
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另一项路透社经济学家民调显示，美联储今年不再被预期会降息，而金融市场则在为12月加息计价。
这意味着住房市场复苏的前景可能比本次民调结果更为黯淡。
6月1日至11日的民调中位预测显示，30年期抵押贷款利率下一季度将达到6.4%，第四季度将为6.3%。预计到2028年，30年期抵押贷款利率的平均水平将超过6.0%，比三个月前的民调结果高出约25个基点。
标普核心Logic凯斯-席勒20城市房价指数衡量的平均房价预计今年仅上涨1.2%，甚至低于去年1.4%的14年低位，明年涨幅为2.0%，均弱于3月的预测，且远低于美国通胀水平。
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“我们已经到了普通美国人越来越难登上住房阶梯的地步，”荷兰国际集团首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利说道。“购房的平均抵押贷款金额约为46万美元……这意味着你每月需支付近3000美元，超过了美国人税后收入中位数的50%。”
“因此，房屋交易量一直维持在极低水平。事实上，如今的交易量与2007-08年全球金融危机期间持平。这着实凸显了当前住房市场面临的严峻挑战。”
占总交易量90%的现房销售预计本季度和下一季度将稳定在年化410万套的平均水平，随后在今年第四季度小幅升至略低于420万套，远低于2021年初660万套的峰值。
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自2月底美以对伊朗开战以来，抵押贷款利率已攀升约50个基点。这一走势与10年期美国国债基准收益率的上涨同步，原因是市场担忧能源价格上涨推高消费者物价通胀，而5月消费者物价通胀年率已升至4.2%。
高抵押贷款利率和高昂的房价位居民调所列首次购房者面临的障碍之首，近三分之二的分析师（19人中的12人）表示，未来一年购房负担能力将进一步恶化。
市场低迷
美国平均房价较疫情前上涨约55%，远高于同期收入增长水平。
“我们预计今年大部分时间市场都将相当低迷，原因无非是多数地区的负担能力问题。美国许多地区的房价仍然居高不下——抵押贷款利率亦是如此，”蒙特利尔银行资本市场高级经济学家萨尔·瓜蒂耶里说道。
“但市场仍然相对紧张，原因在于许多现有房主被锁定在当前的住房中——他们持有的抵押贷款利率远低于现在搬家再贷款所能拿到的利率。因此他们不愿搬家。”
罗思齐会计师事务所高级房地产分析师克里斯托··桑伯里对此表示赞同。
“也许人们愿意将3%的抵押贷款利率换成5%的，但他们未必愿意换成6%至6.5%的，”她说道，并补充称，新房建设和现房销售都不太可能为供应带来显著提振。
(路透社第二季度住房市场民调的其他报道)
萨拉普亚·甘古利报道；因德拉迪普·戈什和努沙伊巴·伊克巴尔民调；乔纳森·凯布尔、罗斯·芬利和休·劳森编辑
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High US mortgage rates to keep housing market subdued: Reuters poll
2026-06-11T12:34:34.047Z / Reuters
BENGALURU, June 11 (Reuters) – High mortgage rates will keep turnover in U.S. residential housing subdued this year and next with very modest price rises, according to property specialists surveyed by Reuters, thwarting the Trump administration’s aim to revive the market.
The benchmark 30-year mortgage rate, which underpins most U.S. home loans, has hovered around 6.6% in recent months. That is much higher than the average 4.3% in the previous decade and is not expected to fall meaningfully any time soon.
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The Federal Reserve is no longer expected to cut interest rates this year, according to a separate Reuters poll of economists, while financial markets are pricing a December hike.
That suggests prospects for a market revival might be bleaker than the poll results suggest.
Median forecasts from the June 1 to June 11 survey showed the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.4% next quarter and 6.3% in the fourth. The 30-year mortgage rate is forecast to average more than 6.0% through 2028, roughly 25 basis points higher than in a survey taken three months ago.
Average home prices as measured by the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Index were forecast to rise just 1.2% this year – even slower than last year’s 14-year low of 1.4% – and 2.0% next, weaker than March forecasts and well below U.S. inflation.
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“We’ve gotten to a point where it is becoming increasingly challenging for the typical American to get on the housing ladder,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “The average mortgage for a home purchase is about $460,000…meaning you’re paying nearly $3,000 per month – more than 50% of the median after-tax pay of the average American.”
“As a result, the number of transactions has remained very low. In fact, we have the same level of transactions today as we did during the 2007-08 global financial crisis. That really underscores how challenged the housing market currently is.”
Existing home sales, which make up 90% of total transactions, were forecast to be steady at an average annualized 4.1 million-unit rate this quarter and next before edging up to slightly below 4.2 million in the final quarter of the year – well below the early 2021 peak of 6.6 million.
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Mortgage rates have climbed roughly 50 basis points since the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran began in late February. Those have tracked the rise in benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields on concerns that higher energy prices would boost consumer price inflation, which climbed to an annual 4.2% rate in May.
High mortgage rates and lofty home prices topped the poll’s list of hurdles for first-time buyers, with nearly two-thirds of analysts, or 12 of 19, saying purchasing affordability would worsen over the coming year.
SLUGGISH MARKET
Average U.S. home prices are about 55% above where they were before the pandemic, far outpacing income growth over the same period.
“We expect the market to remain fairly depressed for much of this year, simply because of affordability issues in most regions. Home prices are still pretty elevated across many regions in the U.S. – as are mortgage rates,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
“But the market is still relatively tight, simply because many current owners are locked in place – sitting on much lower mortgage rates than they would get at the moment if they had to move and get a new one. So they’re reluctant to make that move.”
Crystal Sunbury, senior real estate analyst at RSM, agreed.
“Maybe people are willing to give up that 3% mortgage rate for a 5% one – but they’re not necessarily willing to do that for a 6-6.5% mortgage,” she said, adding neither new construction nor existing home sales would likely deliver a meaningful boost to supply either.
(Other stories from the Q2 Reuters housing market polls)
Reporting by Sarupya Ganguly; Polling by Indradip Ghosh and Nushaiba Iqbal; Editing by Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley and Hugh Lawson
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