2026年6月11日 美国东部时间10:35 / 福克斯新闻
最新评级显示：北卡罗来纳州被列为“倾向民主党”，阿拉斯加与俄亥俄州变为“胜负难料”
作者：保罗·施坦豪瑟 福克斯新闻
全新功能：您现在可以收听福克斯新闻的文章播报！
当地周四，一家领先的无党派政治预测机构将三场参议院选举的选情转向民主党阵营，并预测距离中期选举仅剩不到五个月的当下，民主党已拥有“拿下参议院多数席位的更清晰路径”。
但弗吉尼亚大学政治中心的萨巴托水晶球专栏同时指出，尽管选情出现上述变化，“我们仍认为共和党在参议院整体角逐中占据优势”。
目前共和党以53席比47席掌控参议院，但该党正面临强劲的政治逆风：按照惯例，执政党派在中期选举中通常会丢失席位。此外，持续的通胀推高经济焦虑、与伊朗不受欢迎的战争导致油价上涨，以及总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持率低迷，都让共和党面临艰难的政治环境。
这些中期选举将决定共和党能否守住参议院多数席位
2026年1月12日拍摄的美国国会大厦参议院议事厅。目前共和党在参议院以53-47占据多数席位。（保罗·施坦豪瑟/福克斯新闻）
萨巴托水晶球将竞争激烈的北卡罗来纳州参议院选情从“胜负难料”调整为“倾向民主党”。现任民主党前两任州长罗伊·库珀，将与前共和党全国委员会主席迈克·沃特利角逐退休的共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯留下的席位。
该机构将阿拉斯加州的参议院对决从“倾向共和党”调整为“胜负难料”。现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文预计将对决前民主党众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉。
在俄亥俄州，时任任命共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德正面临前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗的挑战，评级也从“倾向共和党”调整为“胜负难料”。
2026年民主时刻：关注福克斯新闻选举中心获取最新动态
共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德与民主党资深前参议员谢罗德·布朗将于11月在俄亥俄州展开备受瞩目的参议院对决。（汤姆·威廉姆斯/CQ滚 call公司 via 盖蒂图片社；贾斯汀·梅里曼/彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社）
俄亥俄州选情转向民主党一周前，福克斯新闻的一项民调显示，布朗以53%比45%领先赫斯特德8个百分点。
民主党需要在中期选举中净增四个席位，才能夺回2024年选举中失去的参议院控制权。
萨巴托水晶球在提到目前列为“胜负难料”的四个选区时表示，“如今已有足够多的摇摆选区，让民主党拿下参议院多数席位的路径更加清晰……但共和党只要赢下其中一个摇摆选区就能阻止民主党，这意味着他们仍更有机会守住多数席位”。
萨巴托水晶球调整评级的一个月前，另一顶级无党派政治预测机构库克报告将四个关键参议院选区的评级调整为有利于民主党。
民主党瞄准夺取参议院多数席位的狭窄路径，但一步失误就可能满盘皆输
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6390630437112
参议院共和党竞选委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特：“对扩大多数席位极为乐观”，但也承认环境“艰难”
南卡罗来纳州参议员、全国共和党参议院竞选委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特独家接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访，谈论共和党在中期选举中的胜算。
民主党参议院竞选委员会（DSCC）主席、纽约州参议员柯尔斯滕·吉利布兰德对民主党拿下参议院持乐观态度。吉利布兰德今年早些时候告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，她看到了“蓝色浪潮的所有迹象”。
吉利布兰德的对手、全国共和党参议院竞选委员会（NRSC）主席、南卡罗来纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特今年早些时候在接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时承认，“毫无疑问，政治环境变得越来越艰难”。
点击此处下载福克斯新闻APP
但斯科特强调，他仍然“不仅对守住多数席位，而且对扩大多数席位都极为乐观”。
全国共和党参议院竞选委员会全国新闻秘书伯纳黛特·布雷斯林周四对福克斯新闻数字频道表示：“任何摇摆选区都不能掉以轻心。当民主党候选人进一步左倾以取悦激进基础时，共和党正专注于降低成本、投资美国工人，并做好守住多数席位所需的各项工作。”
保罗·施坦豪瑟是驻摇摆州新罕布什尔州的政治记者，全程报道全美各地的竞选活动。
Senate map tightens as top forecaster moves 3 races toward Democrats
June 11, 2026 10:35am EDT / Fox News
North Carolina moved to lean Democrat while Alaska and Ohio shifted to toss-up in latest ratings
By Paul Steinhauser Fox News
NEW You can now listen to Fox News articles!
A leading nonpartisan political handicapper shifted three Senate races toward the Democrats on Thursday and predicted that with just under five months to go until the midterm elections, the Democrats have a “clearer path to winning the Senate majority.”
But Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia adds that despite the shifts, “we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate.”
Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47 but are battling stiff political headwinds, as the party in power in the nation’s capital traditionally loses seats in the midterms. The GOP also faces a rough political climate fueled by economic concerns amid persistent inflation, as well as rising gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings.
THESE MIDTERM RACES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER REPUBLICANS HOLD THEIR SENATE MAJORITY
The Senate side of the U.S. Capitol is shown on Jan. 12, 2026. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber.(Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race in battleground North Carolina from toss-up to lean Democrat. Former two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chair Mike Whatley in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.
It moved the Senate showdown in Alaska, where GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is expected to face off against former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, from lean Republican to toss-up.
And in Ohio, where appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted is being challenged by former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, it shifted the rating from lean Republican to toss up.
DEMOCRACY ’26: STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FOX NEWS ELECTION HUB
Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, will face off in a highly anticipated U.S. Senate race in Ohio in November.(Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images ; Justin Merriman/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The movement toward the Democrats in the Ohio race comes a week after a Fox News poll indicated Brown currently up by eight points, 53%-45%, over Husted.
Democrats need a net gain pickup of four seats in the midterms to win back control of the Senate they lost in the 2024 elections.
Pointing to the four races it now considers toss-ups, Sabato’s Crystal Ball said “there are now enough Toss-up races to give Democrats a clearer path to winning the Senate majority… But Republicans can block Democrats by winning just one of the Toss-ups, meaning that they’re still better-positioned to hold the majority.”
The ratings shift by Sabato’s Crystal Ball comes a month after another top nonpartisan political handicapper, the Cook Report, moved its rankings of four key Senate races in favor of the Democrats.
DEMOCRATS EYE NARROW PATH TO CAPTURE SENATE MAJORITY, BUT ONE WRONG MOVE COULD SINK THEM
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6390630437112
Senate Republican campaign chair Tim Scott ‘extremely optimistic’ about expanding majority but spotlights ‘difficult’ climate
National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina speaks exclusively with Fox News Digital about the GOP’s chances in the midterm elections.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, is optimistic that Democrats can flip the chamber. Gillibrand told Fox News Digital earlier this year she sees “all the makings of a blue wave.”
Gillibrand’s rival, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chair Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, acknowledged in a Fox News Digital interview earlier this year that “there’s no doubt the climate has gotten more and more difficult.”
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
But Scott emphasized he remains “incredibly optimistic, not only about holding the majority, but still expanding the majority.”
And NRSC National Press Secretary Bernadette Breslin told Fox News Digital on Thursday that “no battleground races can be taken for granted. While Democrat candidates lurch further left to appease their radical base, Republicans are staying focused on lowering costs, investing in American workers, and doing the work required to defend the majority.”
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.
发表回复