2026年6月10日 / 美国东部时间上午11:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
美国国内通胀5月进一步加速，受伊朗战争引发的全球能源供应冲击持续推高物价。
消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨4.2%，高于上月的3.8%，为2023年4月以来的最高水平。
关键数据
接受金融数据公司路孚特（FactSet）调查的经济学家此前预测，5月通胀率将达到4.2%的同比涨幅。
CPI是衡量消费者通常购买的一篮子商品和服务价格的指标，用于追踪物价随时间的变化情况。
通胀率已从1月的2.4%同比涨幅攀升至三年来新高，这主要受伊朗战争引发的能源冲击推动。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁扰乱了全球供应链，推高了从汽油到机票等各类商品的价格。
美国劳工部在5月报告中指出，能源价格占当月CPI涨幅的60%以上。汽油价格同比上涨40.5%。
需要说明的是，据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻的油气价格追踪数据显示，6月燃油价格已略有回落，但这一降幅并未体现在5月的统计数据中。
食品杂货价格同比上涨2.7%。番茄价格暴涨32%，生菜价格上涨近25%。此前一直令美国消费者和咖啡连锁企业头疼的咖啡价格，同比上涨17.5%。
剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别后的核心通胀率同比上涨2.9%，略高于4月的2.8%。
专家观点
理财平台NerdWallet高级经济学家伊丽莎白·伦特在周三的邮件中表示，通胀增速超过工资涨幅，美国家庭预算正面临压力。哥伦比亚广播公司新闻近期的一项民调显示，四分之三的美国人表示收入无法跟上通胀步伐。
“消费者在生活必需品上支出更多，却感觉无力缓解这种痛苦，”伦特说道。
不过，通胀报告并非完全黯淡无光。专家表示，在受伊朗战争直接影响的类别之外，有迹象显示部分价格正在回落，这表明通胀压力尚未在整个经济中扩散。
安永咨询（EY-Parthenon）首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科在邮件中称，部分商品价格14个月来首次出现下跌，新车、家用家具和处方药等类别上月价格均出现下滑。
达科写道，这些价格回落可能是“与关税相关的成本转嫁影响已基本消退的信号”。
达科还表示，核心通胀仅小幅上涨，这表明除机票外，高油价目前尚未波及其他品类。
牛津经济研究院美国首席经济学家南希·范登·霍顿在研究报告中称，5月可能是2026年通胀率的峰值，今年晚些时候通胀可能会有所缓解。
“鉴于6月迄今汽油价格大幅下跌，5月可能会成为整体CPI的峰值，不过通胀回落速度将较为缓慢，”她说道，并补充称核心通胀也可能已见顶，但仍可能维持在高位。
这对美联储降息意味着什么？
通胀飙升打乱了市场对美联储利率路径的预期。今年1月，经济学家们主要关注美联储何时会再次降息。
但如今，物价飙升叠加劳动力市场强劲，导致部分分析师预测美联储下一步可能会加息而非降息。
目前，市场预计美联储官员将在6月17日举行的下一次政策会议上维持借贷成本不变，以便评估此次通胀飙升是否会持续。芝加哥商品交易所集团的美联储观察工具（衡量金融市场情绪的指标）显示，下周美联储维持基准利率不变的概率为96%。
北光资产管理公司首席投资官克里斯·扎卡里亚利在邮件中表示：“如果通胀持续走高，美联储将无法降息。更重要的是——市场已开始对这种可能性做出反应——美联储下一步可能需要加息，而非今年以来许多人预期的降息。”
Inflation topped 4% in May as CPI surged to its highest level in more than 3 years
June 10, 2026 / 11:00 AM EDT / CBS News
Inflation across the U.S. accelerated in May as the shock to global energy supplies from the Iran war continued to push prices higher.
The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 4.2%, up from 3.8% in the prior month and marking the highest level since April 2023.
By the numbers
Economists polled by financial data firm FactSet predicted inflation in May would rise at an annual rate of 4.2%.
The CPI, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks changes in prices over time.
Inflation has accelerated from an annual rate of 2.4% in January to a three-year high, driven largely by the energy shock stemming from the Iran war. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global supply chains, driving up prices on everything from gasoline to airfares.
In its May report, the Labor Department said energy prices accounted for more than 60% of the monthly CPI increase. Gasoline prices jumped 40.5% from a year earlier.
To be sure, fuel prices have eased slightly in June, as the CBS News gas and oil price tracker shows. However, that decline is not captured in the May data.
Food at home, which captures grocery costs, rose 2.7% from a year earlier. Tomato prices surged 32%, while lettuce jumped almost 25%. Coffee prices, which have been a sore spot for American consumers and coffee chains, rose 17.5% from a year earlier.
Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose at an annual rate of 2.9%, up slightly from 2.8% in April.
What the experts say
Household budgets are under pressure due to rising inflation, which is outpacing wage growth, said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, in a Wednesday email. Three-quarters of Americans said their incomes aren’t keeping up with inflation, according to a recent CBS News poll.
“Consumers are paying more for essentials, and they can feel powerless to mitigate this pain,” Renter said.
Still, the inflation report wasn’t entirely bleak. Outside of categories directly affected by the Iran war, there are signs that some prices are easing, suggesting inflationary pressures aren’t yet spreading across the economy, experts say.
For instance, prices for some goods fell for the first time in 14 months, with new vehicles, household furniture and prescription drugs among the categories posting declines last month, said EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco in an email.
Those price dips could be “a sign that the bulk of tariff-related passthrough appears to be behind us,” Daco wrote.
Core inflation ticked up just slightly, indicating that higher energy prices aren’t spilling into other categories for now, aside from airfare, according to Daco.
May could represent a 2026 peak for the inflation rate, which could ease later this year, Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a research note.
“With gas prices down sharply so far in June, May could mark the peak for headline CPI, although inflation will be slow to decline,” she said, adding that core inflation has also likely peaked but could remain elevated.
What does this mean for Fed rate cuts?
The inflation surge has upended expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. In January, economists had largely focused on when the Fed might next cut rates.
But now, the surge in prices — as well as a stronger labor market — has some analysts predicting that the central bank’s next move could instead be a rate hike.
For now, Fed officials are expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at their next policy meeting, set for June 17, as they assess whether the inflationary spike will prove persistent. CME Group’s FedWatch tool, a measure of financial market sentiment, shows a 96% likelihood that the central bank will hold its benchmark rate steady next week.
“The Fed will be in no position to cut rates if this continues,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, in an email. “More importantly — and the market has started to react to this possibility — the Fed’s next move may need to be a hike, and not a cut as many had expected coming into this year.”
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