2026年6月10日 上午9:56 UTC / 路透社
Kalshi标志出现在这张2026年4月22日的插图中。路透社/Dado Ruvic/插图/档案照片
6月10日（路透社）——据《华尔街日报》10日援引知情人士消息报道，美国商品期货交易委员会将就其如何监管预测市场提出新规则。
预测市场允许交易员就特定事件的“是或否”结果下注，其受欢迎程度和争议度均有所上升。
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在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推出重大政策举措前出现的精准下注，可能为不明身份的交易员带来了数百万美元的利润，这类事件也让预测市场受到越来越多的审查。
《华尔街日报》的报道称，新规可能涵盖部分体育相关交易，包括针对球员伤病和所谓“开球赌局”的下注，而涉及战争、恐怖主义或暗杀的下注可能会被禁止，因其不符合公众利益。
路透社无法立即核实这篇报道。美国商品期货交易委员会也未立即回复路透社的置评请求。
该报补充道，该机构的提案并未直接禁止任何特定类型的所谓事件合约交易，而是列出了监管机构将用于逐案审查某些类型合约的考量因素。
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上月在Truth Social的一篇帖子中表示，商品期货交易委员会对预测市场保持独家管辖权至关重要。
阿布·苏丹 班加罗尔报道 亚历山德拉·哈德逊 编辑
我们的准则：汤森路透信托原则。
US agency proposes new rules to govern prediction markets, WSJ reports
June 10, 2026 9:56 AM UTC / Reuters
Kalshi logo appears in this illustration taken April 22, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
June 10 (Reuters) – The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will propose new rules on how it will govern prediction markets, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Prediction markets, which can allow traders to bet on “yes or no” outcomes on specific events, have grown in both popularity and controversy.
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They have drawn increasing scrutiny as well-timed trades ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s major policy surprises have potentially led to millions of dollars in profits for unknown traders.
The WSJ report said the rules could cover some sports-related trading, including bets on player injuries and so-called “first-pitch” gambling, while bets on war, terrorism or assassinations would likely be barred as not in the public interest.
Reuters could not immediately verify the report. The CFTC did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
The agency’s proposal doesn’t outright ban trading on any specific types of so-called event contracts, but rather outlines factors that regulators will use to review certain types of contracts on a case-by-case basis, the Journal added.
U.S. President Donald Trump said last month in a post on Truth Social that it was critically important that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintain exclusive authority over prediction markets.
Reporting by Abu Sultan in Bengaluru, Editing by Alexandra Hudson
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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