2026-06-10T04:02:02.522Z / 路透社
摘要
- 预计5月消费者物价指数将上涨0.5%
- 同比CPI预计跃升4.2%，为2023年4月以来最大涨幅
- 随着与政府停摆相关的住房一次性涨价影响消退，核心CPI月度涨幅预计将放缓
华盛顿6月10日路透电 —— 由于中东冲突推高了能源产品价格，美国5月消费者通胀可能达到三年来最快增速，这将为美联储今年维持利率不变提供更多依据。
预计劳工部周三发布的消费者物价指数将连续第三个月出现强劲同比读数，这将凸显美国家庭面临的压力不断加大，因为有证据表明越来越多的消费者开始动用储蓄来维持开支。5月通胀可能连续第二个月超过工资涨幅，这一情况可能拖累整体经济增长。
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生活成本飙升对唐纳德·特朗普总统及其共和党来说是一项政治负担，他们正争取在11月的中期选举中保住国会控制权。特朗普在2024年总统选举中获胜在很大程度上得益于他降低通胀的承诺，但随着民众对其经济施政的不满情绪加剧，他的支持率出现下滑。
“整体通胀涨幅将连续第二个月超过工资涨幅，”RSM首席经济学家约瑟夫·布鲁苏埃拉斯说道，“这意味着美国人的实际工资在下降，如果这种情况持续下去，那么今年下半年家庭消费将面临挑战。”
路透社对经济学家的调查显示，截至5月的12个月里，消费者物价指数可能上涨4.2%。这将是自2023年4月以来CPI最大的年度涨幅，此前4月涨幅为3.8%。3月CPI同比上涨3.3%。预计5月CPI环比上涨0.5%，4月涨幅为0.6%。
美国央行以个人消费支出物价指数作为2%通胀目标的衡量标准。目前所有通胀指标都远高于美联储的目标。
美国能源信息管理局的数据显示，5月全国平均汽油价格上涨8.8%，达到每加仑4.60美元。自2月底美国和以色列袭击伊朗以来，汽油价格一度上涨超过50%。
近期停火协议使得油价有所回落，一些经济学家谨慎乐观地认为，5月可能是CPI的峰值。尽管霍尔木兹海峡的航运受限推高了化肥价格，但尚未显著推高食品价格。
“目前整体通胀的同比涨幅很有可能在5月达到峰值，不过当然，油价可能会根据中东局势再次飙升，”桑坦德美国资本市场首席美国经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利说道。
劳动力市场具有韧性
这份报告发布前一周有消息称，5月美国经济连续第三个月实现超出预期的就业增长。失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%。尽管金融市场已经开始计价加息，但经济学家们仍认为美联储收紧货币政策的门槛仍然很高。
一些人认为，除了高昂的机票价格外，没有明显迹象表明油价冲击蔓延到了服务业。
剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，预计5月核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，4月涨幅为2.8%。预计核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，4月涨幅为0.4%。
“如果核心CPI显示出通胀传导的迹象，即高能源成本也反映到其他类别中，那么这将成为触发美联储加息叙事的因素，”荷兰国际集团首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利说道，“我们所处的环境中，央行仍认为货币政策立场具有一定限制性。”
预计月度CPI涨幅放缓的部分原因是，去年政府停摆导致数据收集中断后，租金衡量标准的一次性提振影响已经消退。尽管人工智能支出热潮推高了电脑和软件的价格，但这些产品在核心CPI篮子中的权重较小。而在核心PCE通胀篮子中，这些产品的权重更大。
令人意外的二手车和卡车价格通缩也有助于抑制商品通胀。经济学家们对进口关税的看法存在分歧，一些人认为关税的价格传导效应基本已经结束，而另一些人则表示，关税仍在推高价格，尤其是服装类商品。
“美国经济正接近关税传导阶段的尾声，”摩根士丹利经济学家迭戈·安扎特吉说道，“我们的估计显示，到目前为止关税已经推高了约63个基点的价格，总传导效应接近70个基点。我们在3月看到了减速的早期迹象，并预计这一趋势将持续下去。”
路透社记者露西娅·穆蒂卡尼报道；安德烈亚·里奇编辑
Higher gasoline prices likely pushed up US consumer inflation again in May
2026-06-10T04:02:02.522Z / Reuters
Summary
- Consumer Price Index forecast increasing 0.5% in May
- Year-on-year CPI estimated to have jumped 4.2%, biggest rise since April 2023
- Core CPI monthly increase expected to slow as one-time bump to shelter related to government shutdown fades
WASHINGTON, June 10 (Reuters) – U.S. consumer inflation likely increased at its fastest pace in three years in May as the Middle East conflict raised prices of energy products, which would provide more ammunition for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year.
The anticipated third straight month of strong year-on-year Consumer Price Index readings from the Labor Department on Wednesday is expected to highlight mounting pressure on households as evidence suggests more consumers are dipping into savings to finance their spending. Inflation is likely to outpace wage growth in May for a second straight month, a development that could weigh on overall economic growth.
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The soaring cost of living is a political liability for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party, seeking to retain control of Congress in the midterm elections in November. Trump won the 2024 presidential election in large part because of his promise to lower inflation, but has seen his approval rating tumble as frustration mounts over his handling of the economy.
“The top-line increase in inflation will outpace wage growth for the second consecutive month,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “What that means is Americans are seeing their paycheck decline in real terms, which, if it were sustained, would tend to suggest we’re going to have a challenge around household consumption in the second half of the year.”
The Consumer Price Index likely increased 4.2% in the 12 months through May, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. That would be the largest annual rise in the CPI since April 2023 and would follow a 3.8% advance in April. The CPI increased 3.3% year-on-year in March. It is expected to have increased 0.5% on a monthly basis in May after advancing 0.6% in April.
The U.S. central bank tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Indexes for its 2% inflation target. All inflation measures are running well above the Fed’s target.
The national average gasoline price increased 8.8% in May to $4.60 a gallon, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. At one point, gasoline prices had jumped by more than 50% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.
Prices have retreated in recent weeks amid a ceasefire, leaving some economists cautiously hopeful that May could mark the peak in the CPI. Though restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has raised fertilizer prices, that has not yet significantly pushed up food prices.
“There is a good chance that the year-over-year advance in headline inflation peaks for the moment in May, though, of course, oil prices could surge again depending on the course of events in the Middle East,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
LABOR MARKET IS RESILIENT
The report would follow on the heels of news last week that the economy posted a third straight month of above-expectations job growth in May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3% for a third consecutive month. Though financial markets have started pricing in a rate hike, economists continued to believe that the bar remained high for the central bank to tighten monetary policy.
Some argued that outside high airfares, there were no strong signs of the oil price shock bleeding into the services sector.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core CPI was forecast to have increased 2.9% year-on-year in May after rising 2.8% in April. The so-called core CPI was projected to have gained 0.3% on a monthly basis after rising 0.4%.
“If the core was to show some signs of pass through, higher energy costs being reflected into other categories as well, then that would be the story that would trigger the Fed rate-hike narrative,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “We’re in an environment where we’ve got a central bank that still considers the monetary policy stance to be somewhat restrictive.”
Part of the anticipated moderation in the monthly CPI rate reflects the fading boost from a one-time adjustment to rent measures after last year’s shutdown of the government prevented data collection. While the artificial intelligence spending boom is driving up prices of computers and software, those have a smaller weighting in the core CPI basket. The weighting is larger in the core PCE inflation basket.
A surprising used cars and trucks deflation has also helped to curb goods inflation. Economists were divided on import tariffs, with some viewing the pass-through as largely over while others said the duties continued to raise prices, especially those of apparel.
“The economy is nearing the end of the tariff pass-through phase,” said Diego Anzoategui, an economist at Morgan Stanley. “Our estimates suggest tariffs have lifted prices by about 63 basis points so far, with total pass-through closer to 70 basis points. We saw early signs of deceleration in March and expect that trend to continue.”
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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