2026年6月9日 / 美国东部时间下午3:37 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
经济学家预计，将于周三发布的关键通胀指标将显示，美国5月消费者价格涨幅达到三年多来的最高水平。
根据金融数据公司路孚特（FactSet）调查的经济学家预测，上月消费者物价指数（CPI）的年增长率预计将从4月的3.8%升至4.2%。根据政府数据，这将是2023年4月以来的最高值，当时通胀率为4.9%。
据路孚特数据，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI预计增幅将更为温和，5月的年增长率预计从上月的2.8%升至2.9%。
通胀在新冠疫情期间大幅飙升，目前仍远高于美联储设定的2%年度目标。穆迪 Analytics 首席经济学家马克·赞迪在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻采访时表示，与新冠危机期间推高通胀的供应链中断不同，此轮物价上涨主要归因于包括伊朗战争在内的政府政策。
“距离我们上次达到美联储通胀目标已经快五年了，我认为这种状况一直在消磨公众的心理，这也是人们对经济感觉如此糟糕的原因之一，”他说道。
最近的一项哥伦比亚广播公司新闻民调显示，四分之三的美国人表示他们的收入跟不上通胀的步伐。
经济学家表示，5月的CPI数据可能会显示，持续高企的通胀主要归咎于能源价格上涨。这些数据将涵盖4月中旬至5月中旬的燃油价格上涨情况。
据哥伦比亚广播公司新闻的能源价格追踪数据显示，近期石油和燃料成本已有所回落。根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，美国全国平均汽油价格为每加仑4.16美元，较5月21日的近期峰值下降了40美分。国际基准布伦特原油周二下跌3.5%，收于每桶90.99美元，而美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油下跌4.1%，收于每桶87.57美元。
赞迪表示，除了最新CPI数据所揭示的能源成本变化外，经济学家周三还将重点关注商品和服务成本，以评估燃油价格上涨如何在经济中产生连锁反应。
“这不仅仅是汽油价格——柴油价格也同样如此，这推高了所有通过卡车运输的商品价格，从食品杂货到亚马逊包裹都未能幸免，”他说。“航空公司已经将更高的喷气燃料成本转嫁给消费者，现在乘坐飞机的费用也变得更贵了。”
Inflation in May likely topped 4% for the first time in 3 years, economists say
June 9, 2026 / 3:37 PM EDT / CBS News
Economists expect a key inflation gauge set to be released on Wednesday to show that U.S. consumer prices in May rose at their fastest pace in more than three years.
The Consumer Price Index is forecast to have risen last month at an annual rate of 4.2%, up from 3.8% in April, according to economists polled by financial data company FactSet. That would be the highest since April 2023, when inflation rose at a 4.9% rate, according to government data.
So-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and gas prices, is forecast to have risen much more modestly in May to an annual rate of 2.9%, from 2.8% the previous month, according to FactSet.
Inflation surged during the pandemic and remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. In contrast to the supply disruptions that drove inflation during the COVID-19 crisis, the latest leg up in prices is largely attributable to government policy, including the Iran war, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CBS News.
“It’s been almost five years since the last time we were at the Fed’s target, and I think just wearing down on the collective psyche, it’s one reason why people feel so bad about the economy,” he said.
Three-quarters of Americans said their incomes aren’t keeping up with inflation, according to a recent CBS News poll.
The May CPI data is likely to show that higher energy prices are mostly to blame for ongoing inflation, according to economists. Those figures will capture the rise in fuel prices from mid-April to mid-May.
More recently, oil and fuel costs have eased, according to CBS News’ energy price tracker. The average cost of a gallon of gas in the U.S. is $4.16, down 40 cents from its most recent peak on May 21, according to AAA. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 3.5% on Tuesday to $90.99 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was down 4.1% at $87.57 a barrel.
Beyond what the latest CPI reveals about energy costs, economists on Wednesday will also zero in on the cost of goods and services to assess how higher fuel prices are rippling through the economy, Zandi said.
“It’s not just gasoline prices — it’s also diesel prices, which put upward pressure on prices for everything that’s put on a truck, from groceries to Amazon packages,” he said. “It’s now more expensive to fly as airlines have passed through the higher jet fuel costs.”
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