2026-06-07T16:00:08.568Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/07/politics/marco-rubio-free-cuba-trump
- 国务卿马克·卢比奥正在应对几十年来美古关系中最动荡的时刻。
- 本届政府实施了燃油封锁，派遣中情局局长前往哈瓦那发出最后通牒，并起诉了古巴前总统劳尔·卡斯特罗。
- 卢比奥面临艰难平衡：一边是他毕生追求的自由古巴目标，另一边是特朗普想要达成“好协议”的愿望。
本文由AI生成摘要，经CNN编辑审核。
在2016年总统竞选的最后几天，时任参议员马克·卢比奥在迈阿密一场支持者众多的辩论活动中，明确了他与古巴进行任何谈判的底线：为岛上1100万民众提供自由选举、新闻自由和言论自由。当时的共和党总统领跑者唐纳德·特朗普的表态则模糊得多，只是笼统地承诺要与卡斯特罗政权达成“好协议”。
卢比奥当时嘲笑了特朗普的回答，台下观众一片欢呼。
如今，身为国务卿的卢比奥正代表他曾嘲讽过的那个人，应对几十年来美古关系中最动荡的时刻。数月来，身为古巴移民之子的卢比奥与特朗普联手，向古巴领导人施压，迫使他们坐到谈判桌前，同时试图加速加速古巴政权倒台的进程。
一场燃油封锁让古巴民众在酷热的夏季来临之际陷入轮流停电。上个月在哈瓦那，中情局局长约翰·拉特克利夫罕见地当面向古巴官员发出最后通牒，要求他们进行政治改革。五天后，美国司法部起诉了古巴前总统劳尔·卡斯特罗。美国“尼米兹”号航母打击群就在加勒比海附近海域待命。
周四，美国进一步加大施压力度，对古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔及其妻子、继子、劳尔·卡斯特罗的家属，以及多个据称与古巴政府有关联的组织实施制裁。
目前仍未可知的是，卢比奥能否实现他毕生追求的解放古巴的目标，或者这一时刻是否会像以往一样，以特朗普口中的“好协议”收场。
白宫内部对迫使古巴政权做出重大让步的难度日益感到沮丧。而特朗普最近对强行改变古巴政府表示怀疑，上个月当被问及潜在协议的具体细节时，他告诉记者：“嗯，我不关心改变政权这件事。”
周四，特朗普承诺最终将全面关注古巴问题——但这必须等到他先解决困扰自己数月的伊朗战争问题之后。
“我们会在处理完这件事后再处理古巴问题。我喜欢一次只做一件事，”他说。“等这件事结束后，我们在返程途中会稍作停留，简单处理一下。”
与此同时，在拥有超过100万古巴裔美国人的南佛罗里达，人们对一个没有卡斯特罗掌权的古巴的希望日益高涨。
“我想我们都能想象出我们希望古巴变成的样子，而且这不需要一夜之间完成，”卢比奥周三在众议院外交事务委员会作证时说。
“美国愿意通过谈判让古巴走上民主、繁荣、自由和正常化的道路。我们对此持开放态度，也愿意与任何愿意这么做的人合作，”卢比奥对议员们说。
“显然，这将充满挑战，”他说。
对古巴的施压行动，只是卢比奥重塑全球外交的最新大胆举措。他已成为特朗普庞大且时而混乱的外交政策议程的主要推动者之一。
作为长期怀有总统抱负的职业政客，卢比奥与曾嘲讽他为“小卢比奥”的特朗普结成了出人意料的联盟，这让他在政府中拥有了广泛的权力和众多头衔。
除了国务卿一职，卢比奥还兼任代理国家安全顾问，成为自亨利·基辛格以来首位同时担任这两个职位的人。从这两个职位出发，55岁的卢比奥在特朗普对伊朗和委内瑞拉的行动中发挥了核心作用，同时还在处理与美国欧洲盟友以及主要竞争对手中国日益紧张的关系。
但古巴是他迄今为止最私人的挑战。随着卢比奥筹划2028年的另一次总统竞选，这场挑战的成败将最能定义他的政治生涯。
卢比奥在古巴历史的熏陶下长大，他将自己的鹰派世界观归功于侨民社区的塑造。如今，这个社区的愿望很大程度上寄托在他的肩上——但总统对全面政权更迭短暂表现出的兴趣也压在了他的肩上。
“这对马克·卢比奥来说是千载难逢的机会。这是他个人和职业上一直梦寐以求的事情，”曾在特朗普第一任期担任美国驻哈瓦那大使馆馆长的劳伦斯·甘比纳说。“我认为他意识到，他必须在老板特朗普总统、古巴侨民的期望和现实之间周旋。”
一位了解相关讨论的人士透露，南佛罗里达的商界和社区领袖——包括长期支持卢比奥的盟友——之间的讨论日益激烈，他们正在考虑如果古巴政权倒台，该如何帮助重建古巴。国务院已就必要时提供人道主义援助一事与部分人士进行了接触。
佛罗里达州海厄利亚前市长、特朗普和卢比奥的亲密盟友史蒂夫·博沃告诉CNN，他已警告当地官员，如果古巴裔美国人乘船前往古巴救援人员或运送人道主义援助，政权更迭可能会引发国内混乱。
“卢比奥身处这场风波的中心，这可能给侨民社区的所有人带来了极大的平静，”博沃说，他的父亲是猪湾事件的老兵。
博沃的妻子是卢比奥的长期助手，他也承认，随着美国和古巴临近临界点，社区内部存在焦虑情绪。“如果特朗普政府任期结束时，古巴没有出现通往完全自由或直接实现完全自由的变革，人们将会极度失望，”博沃说。
但许多密切关注古巴政策的人质疑，侨民社区的希望——以及卢比奥本人的希望——能否与特朗普对长期外交参与有限的兴趣共存。
“如果卢比奥想要达成外交、谈判的结果，”曾在乔·拜登政府时期担任美国国家安全委员会西半球事务高级主任的胡安·冈萨雷斯说，“那么他将不得不背叛他在南佛罗里达的政治基础。”
冈萨雷斯承认，古巴的政权更迭将是“历史性的”，但他指出，卢比奥面临的赌注极高。
“如果（卢比奥）成功了，他将有可能在全国范围内成为更广泛的政治人物，而到目前为止，他仍被视为佛罗里达州的政治家，”冈萨雷斯补充说，这一机遇也伴随着真正的政治风险。“所以对他来说，这是入场券。如果这场行动一团糟，他的政治生涯就完了。”
在政府内部，卢比奥已成为特朗普在西半球问题上的关键顾问。这与他儿时的愿景最为接近，当时他在回忆录《美国之子》中写道，他“曾夸口说有一天会带领一支侨民军队推翻菲德尔·卡斯特罗，成为自由古巴的总统”。
在特朗普第一任期内，卢比奥也是白宫在该地区的可靠声音。“时任参议员卢比奥的印记贯穿了政府对古巴和委内瑞拉的政策，”一位与卢比奥关系密切的人士告诉CNN。
与特朗普的大多数外交政策优先事项一样，负责古巴事务的团队规模很小。大部分时间都在白宫的卢比奥，有一批亲密助手负责该问题，其中包括几位他在参议院任职期间的团队成员。在政府内部和国务院，古巴政策主要由政治任命官员制定。不过，职业大使迈克·哈默仍以美国驻哈瓦那临时代办的身份留在当地。
今年3月，卢比奥承认了自己在这项工作中的核心作用，他告诉记者：“任何关于古巴的报道，如果不是来自我或总统，都是假新闻，因为只有我们两个人在负责这件事。”
在推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗政权后，特朗普政府试图迅速利用他们在该国新获得的影响力，通过切断向古巴输送委内瑞拉石油，并向墨西哥施压放缓本国石油出口，来削弱古巴。
本届政府日益将矛头指向控制古巴经济大部分领域的军事集团，卢比奥周三表示，美国“愿意达成一项能够让收入开始流向古巴民众的安排”。
尽管面临严厉的经济制裁和军事行动威胁，古巴领导层仍拒绝快速达成协议，而是试图拖延特朗普对又一场外国争端的热情，以维持对政权的控制。古巴外交部长近日驳斥了古巴对美国构成威胁的说法，并在X平台上发帖称，哈瓦那“愿意基于尊重我们的主权、宪法秩序和政治制度，通过对话解决双边问题”。
一位前国务院官员指出，面对美国的压力，古巴政府历来会进入“围攻心态”。
“古巴的政治变革需要付出更多努力，”曾在拜登政府时期担任美国驻美洲国家组织大使的弗兰克·莫拉说。
白宫发言人安娜·凯利在一份声明中称赞卢比奥“在执行总统的外交政策议程、保护我们的家园免受该地区威胁方面发挥了重要作用”。
但尽管特朗普声称要推行所谓的门罗主义，以重新确立美国在西半球的影响力，她并未承诺古巴会发生重大政治变革。
“正如总统所说，古巴是一个多年来管理糟糕的失败国家，”凯利说。“美国会提供帮助，但古巴那些无能的领导人应该尽快与美国达成协议，否则就太晚了。”
古巴政府表示愿意与美国进行谈判，但不会屈服于要求重塑古巴一党制共产主义政体的压力。古巴官员告诉CNN，他们认为卢比奥对哈瓦那的个人敌意阻碍了任何可能的协议。
古巴政府的社交媒体账号还发布了恶搞视频，将卢比奥塑造成一个名为“金发蠕虫”的木偶娃娃——这一称呼结合了卢比奥的姓氏（在西班牙语中意为“金发”）和菲德尔·卡斯特罗在1959年革命后对逃离古巴的古巴人使用的极具侮辱性的贬称。
随着伊朗战争陷入僵持，特朗普的高级政治助手们急于在11月的中期选举前将总统的注意力转回国内问题——尽管总统似乎态度坚定，最近警告称，德黑兰想要拖垮他的企图不会得逞，因为他“不在乎中期选举”。
政府内部有迹象表明，美国打算加大对哈瓦那的经济和政治施压力度。前外交官和其他接近白宫的人士表示，官员们还考虑了一系列针对古巴的潜在军事行动。但这些行动都伴随着重大风险，也不能保证能快速取得胜利。
在古巴开展类似委内瑞拉式的突袭行动被视为复杂得多的提议，收益也更小；卡斯特罗年近95岁，而且几乎没有把握抓住他会削弱这个几十年来牢牢掌控权力的政权。专家表示，古巴体制内也没有相当于德尔西·罗德里格斯——美国支持的委内瑞拉临时领导人——的人物。
卢比奥周三表示，有“政府技术官僚阶层中的一些人可以在这一切中发挥一定作用”。
“但归根结底，如果你问我，现在有没有我们可以信任并依靠全程领导这场过渡的个人？我现在还无法告诉你那个名字，”他在众议院外交事务委员会作证时说。
一些急于打开古巴政治和经济体系的共和党议员敦促卢比奥和政府无论如何都要开展这样的行动。
“看看委内瑞拉，”佛罗里达州众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉查——古巴流亡者的女儿——在劳尔·卡斯特罗被起诉后说。“我确实认为我们应该效仿这个例子。”
即便如此——成功更换领导层，但没有为岛上居民制定选举和解放的时间表——也可能无法达到古巴裔美国人社区所期望的愿景，而这个社区与卢比奥关系密切，并且在特朗普的三次选举中压倒性地支持他。
“一边是卢比奥团队和有着真正、严肃、深刻古巴愿景的古巴裔美国人，”长期担任国务院高级官员的里卡多·苏尼加说。“另一边是总统，他只想赢——而且他不在乎赢的方式是什么。”
长期研究古巴侨民的佛罗里达国际大学古巴研究所的豪尔赫·杜安尼表示，特朗普愿意迅速采取行动推翻委内瑞拉和伊朗的政治领导层，这让古巴流亡者想象着卡斯特罗也会有同样的下场。他说，对古巴裔美国人的调查越来越多地显示出他们支持美国军事干预解放该岛。
“自从没有任何举措能在岛上带来重大变革以来，人们有一种绝望感，”杜安尼说。
现在的期望如此之高，以至于如果无法实现，可能会在政治上造成损害。
“你会看到大量古巴裔美国人脱离共和党，或者至少脱离特朗普的政党，”知名古巴裔商人、美国古巴侨民博物馆主席马塞尔·费利佩说。“这将是政治自杀。”
费利佩和许多其他居住在美国的古巴人一样，希望看到政治犯获释，希望古巴更像其加勒比邻国，如多米尼加共和国和巴哈马。
不过，也有人认为，特朗普在侨民中积累了足够的好感，他们愿意接受一个过渡期，让前政权的一些人继续留任。
“侨民社区中有一部分人除了看到卡斯特罗被绞死之外，什么都不接受，”博沃说。“现在，可能不得不吞下一些苦果。”
这对卢比奥来说是一条令人生畏的平衡木，不仅作为美国首席外交官和古巴裔美国人，而且作为越来越被视为未来共和党总统候选人的人。据CNN此前报道，特朗普在私下谈话中将卢比奥与副总统JD·万斯相提并论，思考自己的潜在接班人。万斯曾公开开玩笑说，他和卢比奥是最新版《飞黄腾达》的参赛者。
卢比奥在国际舞台上的表现给许多潜在的共和党初选选民留下了深刻印象，尽管越来越多的人对特朗普继续关注外交事务表示不满。但如果伊朗局势没有改善，或者委内瑞拉因马杜罗被罢免后的不稳定而崩溃，这种情况可能会改变。
他地位的提升也无法抵消他成为另一场不受欢迎的外国干预代言人的风险。根据3月美联社-NORC的一项民意调查，美国人绝大多数不认可特朗普对古巴问题的处理方式。益普索和芝加哥全球事务委员会的一项调查发现，78%的美国人——包括60%的共和党人——反对派遣美军推翻古巴政府。
费利佩乐观地认为，卢比奥仍会坚持他十年前作为总统候选人时提出的古巴愿景。他对特朗普核心圈子中一些敦促总统将政府重心转向国内事务的人不太信任。
“这正是他的政治对手想要把卢比奥置于的境地——让他不得不在特朗普的好感和他的支持者的好感之间做出选择，”费利佩说。“如果他必须在两者之间做出选择，他的政治前途将受到损害。我认为这正是他的政治对手、竞争对手以及卡斯特罗政权希望看到的结果。”
CNN的帕特里克·奥普曼对本文亦有贡献。
Can Marco Rubio convince Trump that a free Cuba is America First?
2026-06-07T16:00:08.568Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/07/politics/marco-rubio-free-cuba-trump
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio is navigating the most volatile moment in US-Cuba relations in decades.
- The administration has imposed a fuel blockade, sent the CIA director to Havana with an ultimatum and indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro.
- Rubio faces a difficult balance between his lifelong goal of a free Cuba and Trump’s desire for a “good deal.”
AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.
In the final days of his 2016 presidential campaign, then-Sen. Marco Rubio stood before a friendly Miami debate crowd and named his baseline for any negotiations with Cuba: free elections, a free press and free speech for the 11 million people living on the island. The GOP front-runner, Donald Trump, offered something much vaguer — an unspecific pledge to work out “a good deal” with the Castro regime.
Rubio ridiculed the answer. The crowd roared.
Now, as secretary of state, Rubio is navigating the most volatile moment in US-Cuba relations in decades on behalf of the man he once mocked. For months, Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has teamed with Trump to pressure Cuba’s leaders to the negotiating table while trying to hasten conditions for their ouster.
A fuel blockade has left Cubans with rolling blackouts ahead of the sweltering summer months. Last month in Havana, CIA Director John Ratcliffe delivered a rare in-person ultimatum to Cuban officials to enact political changes. Five days later, the Justice Department indicted former President Raúl Castro. The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group is close by in the Caribbean.
On Thursday, the US piled on more pressure, imposing sanctions on Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canal, his wife and stepson; family members of Raúl Castro; and several organizations it asserted were tied to the Cuban government.
It remains an open question whether Rubio will achieve the liberated Cuba he has sought for most of his life, or whether the moment will end, as others have, with what Trump deems “a good deal.”
There is growing frustration within the White House over how difficult it has proved to force the island’s regime into making major concessions. And Trump has recently expressed doubt about forcing a change in the Cuban government, telling reporters last month when pressed about specifics of a potential deal, “Well, I don’t know about changing the regime.”
On Thursday, Trump vowed to eventually turn his full attention to Cuba — though it would have to wait until he first finds a resolution to the Iran war that’s eluded him for months.
“We’re going to handle that as soon as we finish. I like to do one thing at a time,” he said. “As soon as that’s done, on our way back, we’ll just make a little brief stop.”
Meanwhile in South Florida, where more than 1 million Cuban Americans reside, hope is surging for a Cuba without a Castro in power.
“I think we all can envision what we want Cuba to look like, and it doesn’t have to happen overnight,” Rubio said Wednesday in testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
“The United States is open to a negotiated situation that puts Cuba on a path towards democracy, prosperity, freedom, normalcy. We would be open to that, and we would work with whoever is open to doing it,” Rubio told lawmakers.
“Obviously, it will be challenging,” he said.
The pressure campaign on Cuba is just the latest audacious effort to reshape global diplomacy undertaken by Rubio, who has become a primary driver behind Trump’s sprawling and at-times chaotic foreign policy agenda.
A career politician who has long harbored presidential ambitions, Rubio’s unlikely alliance with Trump — who once derided him as “Liddle Marco” — has granted him broad power within the administration, and numerous job titles to go with it.
In addition to secretary of state, Rubio is acting national security adviser, making him the first to hold both jobs since Henry Kissinger. From those perches, the 55-year-old Rubio has played a central role in Trump’s forays into Iran and Venezuela, while also managing increasingly tenuous relations with the US’ allies in Europe and with its chief rival, China.
Yet Cuba is his most personal challenge yet. And as Rubio plots another potential run for the presidency in 2028, it’s the one whose success or failure could most closely define him.
Rubio grew up steeped in Cuba’s history, and he has credited the exile community with shaping his hawkish worldview. That community’s aspirations are now largely resting on his shoulders — but so are the demands of a president who has expressed fleeting interest in wholesale regime change.
“This is the golden ring for Marco Rubio. This is what he has dreamed about, both personally and professionally,” said Lawrence Gumbiner, who led the US Embassy in Havana during Trump’s first term. “I think he realizes he’s got to dance around his boss, President Trump, and the expectations of the (Cuban) diaspora, and the reality.”
Discussions between South Florida business and community leaders — including longtime Rubio supporters and allies — have intensified as they consider how they might help rebuild Cuba should the regime topple. The State Department has been in contact with some about assisting with humanitarian efforts if needed, a person with knowledge of the discussions said.
Steve Bovo, the former mayor of Hialeah, Florida, and a close ally of Trump and Rubio, told CNN he has warned local officials that regime change could generate some domestic chaos if Cuban Americans on the mainland rush to rescue people or deliver humanitarian aide by boat.
“The fact that Rubio is there in the thick of it is probably what gives everyone in the exile community a lot of calm,” said Bovo, the son of a Bay of Pigs veteran.
Bovo, whose wife is a longtime Rubio aide, also acknowledged the angst within his community as the US and Cuba near a tipping point. “There would be a massive disappointment if by the end of Trump administration there isn’t a degree of change in Cuba that is either a straight line to total freedom or total freedom,” Bovo said.
Many who have watched Cuba policy up close, though, are skeptical the hopes of the exile community — and Rubio himself — can co-exist with Trump’s limited appetite for a protracted foreign engagement.
“If Rubio wants a diplomatic, negotiated outcome,” said Juan Gonzalez, senior director for Western Hemisphere Affairs on the National Security Council under President Joe Biden, then, “he’s going to have to betray his political base in South Florida.”
Gonzalez acknowledged regime change in Cuba would be “historic,” but noted that the stakes for Rubio are incredibly high.
“If (Rubio) pulls it off, it will potentially launch him nationally as a broader political figure, whereas I think up to now he’s still been seen as a Florida politician,” Gonzalez said, adding that the opportunity also carries real political risk. “So for him, this is table stakes. If this is a mess, he’s done.”
Within the administration, Rubio has emerged as Trump’s key adviser on the Western Hemisphere. It’s as close as he’s come to the role he envisioned as a boy, when he “boasted I would someday lead an army of exiles to overthrow Fidel Castro and become president of a free Cuba,” he wrote in his memoir, “An American Son.”
Rubio was also a trusted voice on the region for the White House during Trump’s first term. “Then-Sen. Rubio’s imprint was visible across the administration’s approach to Cuba and Venezuela,” a person close to Rubio told CNN.
As with the majority of Trump’s foreign policy priorities, the team working on Cuba has been small. Rubio, who spends much of his time at the White House, has a tight cadre of aides working on the issue, including several from his years in the Senate. Within the administration and at the State Department, Cuba policy is largely shaped by political appointees. However, career ambassador Mike Hammer has remained on the ground as the US charge d’affaires in Havana.
In March, Rubio acknowledged his principal role in the work, telling reporters, “any reporting on Cuba that you didn’t get from me or the president is a liar, because those are the only people working on it.”
After toppling Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s regime, Trump officials sought to quickly capitalize on their newfound influence in the country to weaken Cuba by disrupting the flow of Venezuelan oil to the island and pressuring Mexico to slow its own oil deliveries.
The administration has increasingly turned its sights on the military conglomerate that controls much of Cuba’s economy, and Rubio on Wednesday said the US is “open to an arrangement that allows” revenue to begin to flow to the Cuban people.
Despite crushing economic sanctions and the threat of military action, Cuba’s leadership has refused to negotiate a quick deal, attempting instead to outlast Trump’s enthusiasm for yet another foreign entanglement and keep its grip on power. Cuba’s foreign minister recently dismissed the notion that Cuba is a threat to the US and said in a post on X that Havana is “open to dialogue to resolve bilateral issues, based on respect for our sovereignty, our constitutional order, and our political system.”
One former State Department official noted that the Cuban government has historically moved into “siege mentality” when faced with US pressure.
“There’s so much more that’s required for political change in Cuba,” said Frank Mora, the former US ambassador to the Organization of American States during the Biden administration.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly praised Rubio in a statement as “instrumental in executing the President’s foreign policy agenda to protect our homeland from threats in the region.”
But despite asserting the so-called Donroe Doctrine that Trump has claimed to reassert American influence across the Western Hemisphere, she stopped short of promising major political change in Cuba.
“As the President stated, Cuba is a failed country that has been horribly run for many years,” Kelly said. “The United States will be there to help, but its flailing leaders should make a deal with the United States before it is too late.”
Cuba’s government has said it’s open to negotiations with the US but will not bend to pressure to remake the island’s single-party communist form of government. Cuban officials have told CNN that they feel Rubio’s personal animus to Havana is stymying any possible deal.
Cuban government social media accounts have also posted parody videos of a puppet doll version of Rubio called “the blond worm,” a combination of Rubio’s last name, which means blond in Spanish, and a highly offensive epithet that Fidel Castro hurled at Cubans who fled the island after his 1959 revolution.
With the Iran war dragging on, top Trump political aides are eager to turn the president’s attention back to domestic issues ahead of November’s midterms — even as the president appears to be digging in, warning recently that Tehran’s efforts to outlast him won’t work because he doesn’t “care about the midterms.”
Within the administration, there are indications that the US intends to ratchet up its economic and political pressure campaign against Havana. Officials have also contemplated a range of potential military actions against Cuba, former diplomats and others close to the White House said. But they all come with major risks and no guarantee of generating a quick victory.
Carrying out a Venezuela-style raid in Cuba is viewed as far more complicated proposition with less upside; Castro is nearly 95, and there’s little assurance that capturing him would weaken a regime that’s kept an iron grip on power for decades. There is also no equivalent to Delcy Rodríguez — the US-backed interim leader of Venezuela — in the Cuban system, experts say.
Rubio on Wednesday said there are “people within the technocratic realm of the government that could play some role in all of this.”
“But ultimately, if you’re asking me, is there a singular individual right now that we would trust and rely on to lead this transition from start to finish? I can’t give you that name right now,” he told the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Some Republican lawmakers eager to pry open Cuba’s political and economic system have pressed Rubio and the administration to mount such an operation anyway.
“Look at Venezuela,” Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida, a daughter of Cuban exiles, said following Castro’s indictment. “I do believe we should follow that example.”
Even that outcome — a successful change in leadership, but without a timetable for elections and liberation for the island’s residents — risks falling short of the vision embraced by a Cuban American community that is close to Rubio and has overwhelmingly supported Trump across his three elections.
“You’ve got the Rubio team and the Cuban Americans who have a real, serious, deep objective Cuba,” said Ricardo Zúñiga, a former longtime senior State Department official. “And you have the president, who just wants to win — and he doesn’t care what that win looks like.”
Trump’s willingness to strike quickly to remove the political leadership in Venezuela and Iran has emboldened Cuban exiles to imagine a similar fate for Castro, said Jorge Duany, a longtime chronicler of the diaspora at Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute. Surveys of Cuban Americans increasingly show support for a US military intervention to liberate the island, he said.
“There’s a sense of desperation since nothing has worked to produce significant change on the island,” Duany said.
Expectations are now so high that a failure to meet them could be politically damaging.
“You will see a huge exodus of Cuban Americans from Republican Party, or at least from Trump’s party,” said Marcell Felipe, a prominent Cuban American businessman and chairman of the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora. “It would be political suicide.”
Felipe, like many other Cubans living in the US, wants to see the release of political prisoners and for the country to more closely resemble its Caribbean neighbors like the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas.
However, some have argued that Trump has built up enough goodwill within the diaspora that they would be willing to accept a transitional period where some from the former regime remain in place.
“There’s a segment of the exile community that will tolerate nothing but a Castro hanging from the highest tree possible,” Bovo said. “Now, there may have to be some sort of bitter juice to swallow.”
It’s a daunting tight rope for Rubio, not only as the country’s chief diplomat and as a Cuban American but also as someone increasingly viewed as a future GOP presidential contender. In private conversations, Trump has compared Rubio with Vice President JD Vance as he mulls his potential heirs, CNN previously reported. Vance has publicly joked he and Rubio are contestants on the latest version of “The Apprentice.”
Rubio has impressed many potential Republican primary voters with how he has stepped onto the world stage, even as a growing number of them express frustration with Trump’s continued focus on foreign priorities. But that could change if the situation in Iran doesn’t improve or if Venezuela crumbles under the instability left by Maduro’s ouster.
Nor does his improved standing account for Rubio becoming the face of another unpopular foreign intervention. Americans already overwhelmingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of Cuba, according to a March Associated Press-NORC poll. And 78% of Americans — including 6 in 10 Republicans — oppose using US troops to overthrow the Cuban government, a survey from Ipsos and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found.
Felipe is optimistic Rubio remains committed to the vision for Cuba he outlined a decade ago as a presidential contender. He has less faith in others within Trump’s inner circle who have urged the president to reorient his administration around domestic affairs.
“That’s exactly where his political enemies would like to put Rubio — in a position where he has to choose between Trump’s good graces or his people’s good graces,” Felipe said. “If he has to choose between one of those, his political future will be damaged. I think that’s something his political rivals and competitors and the Castro regime would like to see happen.”
CNN’s Patrick Oppmann contributed to this report.
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