2026年6月3日 / 美国东部时间中午12:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
如果社保项目的退休信托基金耗尽，数百万依赖社会保障的美国民众每月领取的福利金平均可能会被削减约500美元，而当前预测该基金将在2032年底耗尽。
根据财政政策智库负责任联邦预算委员会的最新分析，这一削减幅度将相当于典型福利金的24%。
社保信托基金用于填补项目收入与福利支出之间的缺口，随着婴儿潮一代退休、受益人数量增加，福利支出已经超过了税收收入。一旦基金耗尽，除非国会采取行动稳定该项目的财政状况，否则福利金将自动削减。
分析发现，这一影响将波及美国每个州10%至23%的人口。
报告称：“没有任何州能幸免于此可能带来的破坏性影响。”
面临月度福利金最大幅度削减的州包括：
- 康涅狄格州，平均削减556美元
- 特拉华州，549美元
- 马里兰州，541美元
- 马萨诸塞州，527美元
- 密歇根州，523美元
- 明尼苏达州，530美元
- 新罕布什尔州，553美元
- 新泽西州，554美元
- 犹他州，523美元
- 华盛顿州，531美元
基金耗尽并不意味着社保受益人会完全停发福利金。即使信托基金储备耗尽，该项目仍将继续收取薪资税收入，使其能够按照削减后的标准发放福利。
即将发布的关键报告
此次新分析发布之际，美国社会保障管理局年度受托人报告即将发布，该报告将更新该机构信托基金预计耗尽的时间。预计该报告将在未来几周内公布。
去年的报告预测，该局两大核心信托基金之一的老年遗属保险信托基金（OASI）将在2033年耗尽。据社会保障管理局称，到那时，该项目仅能支付当前福利金额的77%。
该机构随后将老年遗属保险信托基金的耗尽时间提前至2032年底，理由是《One Big Beautiful Bill法案》对福利金征税产生了影响。
专家表示，社保福利削减对该国退休人员将造成毁灭性打击，因为许多人严重依赖每月的这笔款项。根据非营利倡导组织美国老年人联盟去年发布的一项调查，73%的退休人员的收入有一半以上来自社会保障，39%的退休人员的全部收入都依赖社会保障。
解决社保的资金问题需要政策制定者采取行动。其中一项提议是取消薪资税的收入上限，该上限规定，收入超过184500美元的人无需为超出部分缴纳社保税。
编辑：艾米·皮奇
Your Social Security check could be cut by $500 a month in 2032, report finds
June 3, 2026 / 12:00 PM EDT / CBS News
The millions of Americans who rely on Social Security could see their monthly benefit checks slashed by an average of about $500 if the program’s retirement trust fund becomes insolvent, a scenario currently projected for the end of 2032.
The reduction would amount to a 24% cut in the typical benefit payment, according to a new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a fiscal policy think tank.
Social Security’s trust fund helps cover the gap between the program’s income and benefit obligations, which have outpaced revenue as the baby boom generation retires and the number of beneficiaries grows. Once the fund is depleted, benefits would be automatically reduced unless Congress acts to shore up the program’s finances.
The impact would impact between 10% to 23% of each state’s population, the analysis found.
“No state would be spared from the potentially devastating effects of insolvency,” the report says.
States facing the largest monthly benefit cuts include:
- Connecticut, with an average $556 cut
- Delaware, $549
- Maryland, $541
- Massachusetts, $527
- Michigan, $523
- Minnesota, $530
- New Hampshire, $553
- New Jersey, $554
- Utah, $523
- Washington, $531
Insolvency does not mean Social Security beneficiaries would stop receiving payments altogether. Even after trust fund reserves are depleted, the program would continue collecting payroll tax revenue, allowing it to pay benefits at a reduced level.
Key report coming soon
The new analysis comes ahead of this year’s release of the Social Security Administration’s annual Trustees Report, which will provide an updated estimate of when the agency’s trust fund is projected to become insolvent. The report is expected to be released in the coming weeks.
Last year’s report projected an insolvency date of 2033 for one of the agency’s two key trust funds, known as the Old-Age & Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (OASI). At that point, the program would only be able to pay 77% of the current benefit amount, according to the Social Security Administration.
The agency has since moved the insolvency date for OASI to the end of 2032, citing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s effect on taxation of benefits.
Social Security cuts would prove devastating for the nation’s retirees, as many rely heavily on the monthly payments, experts say. According to a survey released last year by the Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit advocacy group, 73% of retirees depend on Social Security for more than half their income, while 39% depend on it for the entirety of their income.
Solving Social Security’s funding issues would require action from policymakers. One such proposal would be to eliminate the income cap on the payroll tax, which exempts people who earn more than $184,500 from paying Social Security taxes on any amount above that.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
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