美国东部夏令时间2026年6月2日 下午5:52 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者：梅根·塞鲁洛 《MoneyWatch》记者
据能源专家表示，即便美国与伊朗达成和平协议并迅速重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，美国驾车者仍将在未来数月内面临加油站的高价油费困扰。
“这完全取决于船只何时开始通过霍尔木兹海峡，”GasBuddy石油专家帕特里克·德哈恩告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，“即便一切顺利，全面恢复正常也将是一个漫长的过程，需要数月甚至数年时间。”
根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，周二美国普通汽油的平均售价为每加仑4.29美元，较5月份的每加仑4.50美元以上有所下降。在2月底美国和以色列袭击伊朗之前，汽油均价为每加仑2.98美元。
“我们可能要到2027年中至下半年才能回到战前的油价水平，”德哈恩在谈及战前燃油价格时预测道。
霍尔木兹海峡是连接波斯湾和阿拉伯海的战略要道，通常负责全球约20%的原油和液化天然气供应。
霍尔木兹海峡是海湾国家石油运输的关键通道。贝德尔汉·德米雷尔/阿纳多卢通讯社 via 盖蒂图片社
尽管如果宣布结束伊朗冲突的协议，油价可能会立即下跌，但汽油价格的回落速度会更慢，因为需要时间让更多油轮恢复通过该海峡的航行，并让全球石油供应恢复。随后，原油需要被运送到炼油厂，加工成汽油、柴油和其他能源产品。
“即便一夜之间，布伦特原油价格因达成协议的积极情绪而下跌，恢复海峡的油轮通航以及炼油厂恢复产能都需要时间，”里斯塔德能源公司高级地缘政治分析师詹妮弗·李告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
根据美国能源信息署的数据，在全球市场定价的原油成本约占美国每加仑汽油成本的57%。其余成本则包括炼油、联邦和州税以及分销和营销费用。
“当协议宣布时，我们会看到原油价格立即下跌，但这不会反映在汽油价格上，因为供应仍然紧张，”标普全球能源公司执行董事、近期石油全球分析主管理查德·乔斯威克告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
他表示，全球石油库存处于低位，需要时间补充，这将在可预见的未来推高汽油价格。
霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后，产油国需要数周时间才能重启设施并恢复正常产量。德哈恩将这一过程比作试图用花园水管填满一个奥林匹克标准规模的游泳池。
“大部分通过海峡的原油将用于满足当前需求。重建库存需要更长时间，”他说。
“这些石油进入市场可能还需要数月时间，”德哈恩指出，“这是一场持久战。”
根据最新的消费者价格指数数据，由于中东冲突推高了能源成本，美国4月的年度通胀率达到3.8%，为2023年5月以来的最高水平。
布朗大学研究人员的估算显示，自伊朗冲突爆发以来，美国家庭在汽油和柴油上的额外支出平均每户约为401美元。
编辑：阿兰·谢特
Energy experts say gas prices are likely to remain high for months. Here’s why.
June 2, 2026 5:52 PM EDT / CBS News
By Megan Cerullo Reporter, MoneyWatch
American motorists would face pain at the pump for months even if the U.S. and Iran strike a peace deal and move quickly to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to energy experts.
“It is all contingent on when boats start moving through the Strait of Hormuz,” GasBuddy petroleum expert Patrick De Haan told CBS News. “If and when that happens, it will be a very long, multi-month to multi-year process for things to fully normalize.”
Across the U.S., a gallon of regular gas on Tuesday sold for an average of $4.29, down from more than$4.50 in May, according toAAA. Gas averaged $2.98 a gallon just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.
“We won’t see those levels until potentially mid-to-late 2027,” De Haan predicted, referring to pre-war fuel prices.
The Strait of Hormuz, a strategically vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, normally accounts for roughly 20% of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passageway for oil shipments from Gulf states. Bedirhan Demirel/Anadolu via Getty Images
Although oil prices are likely to fall immediately if a deal ending the Iran war is announced, gas prices will fall more slowly because it will take time for more oil tankers to resume traveling through the strait and for global oil supplies to rebound. Crude would then need to be delivered to refineries so it can be turned into gas, diesel and other energy products.
“Even if overnight, Brent prices were to drop on positive sentiment around an agreement, it will take time for tanker flows through the strait to recover and for refiners to get back up to speed,” Jennifer Li, senior geopolitical analyst at Rystad Energy, told CBS News.
Oil prices, set on global markets, account for roughly 57% of the cost of a gallon of gas in the U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration. Refining, federal and state taxes, and distribution and marketing expenses account for the remaining costs.
“When a deal is announced, we’ll see an instant drop in crude, but that won’t be reflected in gasoline prices because supply is still tight,” Richard Joswick, executive director and global head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Energy, told CBS News.
Global oil inventories are low and will take time to replenish, keeping gas prices elevated for the foreseeable future, he said.
Once the Strait of Hormuz reopened, oil-producing nations would need weeks to restart facilities and return to typical output levels. De Haan likened the process to trying to fill an Olympic-size swimming pool with a garden hose.
“Most of what comes through the strait will be used to meet demand. It’s going to take a longer time for inventories to rebuild,” he said.
“It could then take months for that oil to hit the market,” De Haan noted. “This is a long-haul story.”
U.S. inflation in April hit an annual rate of 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, as the Middle East conflict drove up energy costs, according to the latest Consumer Price Index.
Americans have spent roughly $401 more per household for gas and diesel since the Iran war erupted, according to an estimate by Brown University researchers.
Edited by Alain Sherter
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