2026年5月29日 / 美国东部时间下午5:47 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
作者
多年来，美国消费者一直打破预测，即便面临一系列金融压力，仍以消费拉动经济前行。但如今，随着家庭应对近三年来最高通胀率，财务紧张的迹象正在显现。
消费支出约占美国经济活动的70%，因此如果美国人在能源价格持续飙升之际收紧开支，经济放缓的担忧便会加剧。
“如果汽油价格维持高位，中等收入家庭可能面临更多权衡取舍。对大多数家庭而言，汽油并非可选品——这是他们上班、照顾家人和打理日常生活的必需，”金融产品提供商Primerica的首席执行官格伦·威廉姆斯说道。
通胀往往对中低收入家庭打击最重，因为他们将收入中更大比例用于汽油和食品等基本开支。
诚然，消费支出仍在增长，美国家庭整体财务状况依然稳健。在企业利润强劲的推动下，股市也接连创下历史新高，提振了投资者信心。
但由于美国第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）仅以1.6%的温和年化增速扩张，一些专家警告称，消费者可能很快就会耗尽消费动力。下文将介绍让一些经济学家夜不能寐的因素。
收入增长落后于通胀
两项关键通胀指标——消费者价格指数（CPI）和个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——显示，许多美国人的收入增速落后于通胀。这意味着随着消费品价格上涨速度超过收入增速，数百万家庭的购买力正在下降。
“扣除通胀因素后，过去一年家庭收入下降了1%以上——这种降幅通常与经济衰退挂钩，”PNC银行首席经济学家格斯·福彻在谈及最新PCE数据时表示。
他补充道：“若排除疫情时期以及2013年税率变动带来的扭曲因素，这是2009年大衰退以来税后实际收入同比最大幅度的下滑。”
信用卡违约率上升
根据纽约联邦储备银行近期的数据，美国全国的信用卡违约率已达到2011年以来的最高水平，当时经济仍在从大衰退中复苏。
经济学家表示，还款违约率上升表明越来越多的消费者难以履行金融债务。该行本月发布的数据显示，第一季度全国约13%的信用卡账户出现逾期。
个人储蓄率降至22年来低点
周四发布的4月PCE报告显示，个人储蓄率从3月的3.6%降至2.6%。海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗表示，这是美国人20年来的最低储蓄率。
“一年前储蓄率还是5.5%，现在只有2.6%。更大额的退税帮助人们维持生计，但这笔钱将在7月耗尽。今年晚些时候，紧缩开支将不可避免，”她在一封电子邮件中说道。
401(k)贷款和困难提款数量增加
根据富达投资公司的数据，越来越多的美国人从其401(k)退休计划中申请贷款和困难提款。
第一季度，19.2%的富达账户存在未偿还贷款，高于一年前的18.8%。用于支付医疗费用或避免被驱逐等严重财务问题的困难提款比例从一年前的2.3%升至第一季度的2.5%。
减少汽油购买量
纽约联邦储备银行近期的研究显示，今年汽油价格飙升对不同收入家庭的影响有所不同。
研究人员发现，3月份由于伊朗冲突导致燃料价格上涨，中低收入家庭减少了汽油消费，尽管他们的整体支出有所上升。相比之下，高收入家庭的驾车习惯几乎没有变化。
“我们的数据显示，80%的人预计未来几个月汽油价格会上涨，许多家庭的应对措施是推迟大宗采购、暂缓维修或削减储蓄，”Primerica的威廉姆斯说道。
一些零售商也观察到了类似的压力迹象。沃尔玛表示，第一季度顾客加油时的购买量有所减少。
“顾客来我们加油站加油的加油量首次降至10加仑以下，这是自2022年以来的首次，”沃尔玛首席财务官约翰·戴维·雷尼本月早些时候在与华尔街分析师的电话会议中说道。“这是财务压力的一个信号。”
阿兰·谢特编辑
5 economic signals suggest U.S. consumers are feeling the strain
May 29, 2026 / 5:47 PM EDT / CBS News
By
For years, American consumers have defied predictions and kept the economy moving forward with their spending even amid a raft of financial pressures. Yet signs of financial strain are emerging as households grapple with the highest inflation rate in nearly three years.
Consumer spending drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity, raising concerns about a slowdown if Americans pull back amid an ongoing spike in energy prices.
“If gas prices stay elevated, middle-income families will likely face more tradeoffs. For most households, gas isn’t optional — it’s how they get to work, take care of their families and manage daily life,” said Glenn Williams, CEO of Primerica, a provider of financial products.
Inflation tends to hit low- and middle-income households hardest because they spend a greater share of their income on basics such as gas and food.
To be sure, consumer spending is still growing, and U.S. households overall remain on sound financial footing. Driven by robust corporate profits, the stock market has also notched a succession of record highs, boosting investors.
But with the nation’s GDP expanding at a modest 1.6% annual pace in the first quarter, some experts caution that consumers may soon run out of steam. Read on to see what’s keeping some economists up at night.
Income growth lagging inflation
Two key inflation metrics — the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — show that many Americans’ incomes are falling behind inflation. That means millions of households are losing purchasing power as consumer prices outpace their income.
“After adjusting for inflation, household income is down more than 1% over the past year — the type of drop normally associated with recession,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, of the latest PCE data.
He added, “Excluding the pandemic era and distortions caused by changes in tax rates in 2013, this is the largest year-over-year decline in real after-tax income since the Great Recession in 2009.”
Rising credit card delinquencies
Credit card delinquencies across the U.S. have reached their highest level since 2011, when the economy was still recovering from the Great Recession, according to recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
This rise in missed payments signals that more consumers are struggling to meet their financial obligations, according to economists. Nationwide, about 13% of all credit card accounts were in arrears in the first quarter, according to data released this month by the bank.
Savings rate slides to 22-year low
The personal savings rate fell to 2.6% last month from 3.6% in March, the April PCE report showed on Thursday. That represents the lowest savings rate for Americans in two decades, said Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union.
“The savings rate a year ago was 5.5%. Now it’s 2.6%. The larger tax refunds are helping keep people afloat, but those will be exhausted by July. Belt-tightening is inevitable later this year,” she said in an email.
More 401(k) loans and hardship withdrawals
More Americans are taking out loans and making hardship withdrawals from their 401(k)s, according to Fidelity.
In the first quarter, 19.2% of Fidelity accounts had outstanding loans, up from 18.8% a year earlier. Hardship withdrawals, made for serious financial issues such as paying for medical care or avoiding eviction, rose to 2.5% in the first quarter from 2.3% a year earlier.
Cutting gas purchases
This year’s surge in gasoline prices is hitting households differently depending on their incomes, according to recent New York Fed research.
Lower- and middle-income households cut their gas consumption in March, when fuel prices began rising due to the Iran war, even as their overall spending climbed, the researchers found. By contrast, high-income households barely changed their driving habits, the researchers found.
“Our data shows 80% expect gas prices to rise over the next few months, and many households are responding by delaying major purchases, putting off maintenance or scaling back savings,” Primerica’s Williams said.
Some retailers are seeing similar signs of strain. Walmart said its customers purchased less fuel when filling up during the first quarter.
“The number of gallons that customers fill up with when they come to our fuel stations fell below 10 for the first time since 2022,” Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said in a call with Wall Street analysts earlier this month. “That’s an indication of stress.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
发表回复