2026年5月14日，美国东部时间下午12:26 / CNN
亚伦·布莱克 撰稿
2026年5月14日，美国东部时间下午3:49 更新
唐纳德·特朗普总统5月8日在南草坪对媒体发表讲话。
亚伦·施瓦茨/CNP/彭博社/盖蒂图片社
在我们这个两极分化的政治时代，70%的美国人在任何问题上达成共识都极为罕见。但根据本周最新的CNN民调，目前有70%的美国人认为唐纳德·特朗普总统在经济问题上表现糟糕。
这一数字不仅庞大，而且此前完全不可想象。在特朗普的第一任期内，经济一直是他的坚实基础，CNN民调数据显示，他在该问题上的不支持率从未达到过50%。
他沦落到如今地步的过程，充斥着彻头彻尾的傲慢和本可避免的失误。
而最新的CNN民调比以往任何时候都更清晰地展现了这一点。
根据这项调查，特朗普在经济治理上的支持率为30%，不支持率为70%，是其历任最差表现。净不支持率达到负40个百分点。
几乎所有民主党人（97%）都不支持他。但多达79%的独立选民，甚至30%的共和党人也持反对态度。特朗普在经济问题上的不支持率，如今比乔·拜登或巴拉克·奥巴马曾遭遇过的最高不支持率还要糟糕。
民调还显示，65%的美国人表示特朗普的政策“加剧了经济状况恶化”，77%的人表示他们所在社区的生活成本因他的政策而上涨。
这不仅仅是因为美国人仍对经济持怀疑态度，并突然将矛头指向现任总统；特朗普确实主动采取了被美国人视为加剧本已疲软的经济形势的行动。
他主要通过关税政策和伊朗局势升级做到了这一点，数据显示，这两件事是美国人对他经济治理看法转变的转折点。
事实上，关税政策和伊朗局势升级的时间点，正好对应特朗普两届任期内经济不支持率涨幅最大和第三大的两次波动。
特朗普宣布“解放日”全球关税政策后，他的经济不支持率从2025年3月的56%跃升至2025年4月的61%。
而在2月底对伊朗发动空袭之前，他的经济不支持率1月为61%，空袭后3月升至69%，如今更是达到70%。
（CNN民调中仅有的另一次间隔期间不支持率上升至少5个百分点的情况，是2017年总统任期最初几个月，当时他的整体支持率首次大幅下滑。）
这两起事件也恰好与认为特朗普政策“加剧了经济状况恶化”的美国人比例的最大涨幅同步。这一比例在关税政策宣布前为51%，之后跃升至59%。随后，在伊朗局势升级前的不久前为55%，如今已升至65%。
在这两起事件中，认为特朗普损害经济的共和党人比例都翻了一番——关税政策宣布后从10%升至22%，伊朗战争开始后从13%升至27%。
最新的CNN民调还显示，美国人将这两个问题直接与他们对经济的负面看法联系起来。
足足65%的人表示，实施关税政策对他们的个人财务状况产生了负面影响，75%的人对伊朗战争持同样看法。除此外，还有77%的人表示，特朗普的整体政策推高了他们居住地的生活成本。
在伊朗局势相关的两项调查结果中，就连大多数共和党人都表示认同——这一点令人震惊。
为什么会这样？因为党派支持者往往会避免将不利事态归咎于自己支持的政客。他们常常会将经济问题归咎于总统无法控制的环境因素，或是将其归咎于前任总统的政策拖累现任政府。
特朗普的问题在于，他让即便许多共和党人都几乎无法再对他抱有这种善意的怀疑。
过去两个半月汽油价格飙升的原因早已不是秘密：伊朗局势升级。而在此之前，特朗普的关税政策让美国人很容易就将长期通胀、日益惨淡的就业数据和欠佳的经济增长归咎于他。
4月13日在迈阿密，一名顾客正在给车辆加油，油价标牌清晰可见。
乔·拉德尔/盖蒂图片社
这种动态最能说明问题的数据，来自去年关税政策宣布后不久。
特朗普第一任期的第一年，NPR-PBS-马里斯特学院的民调显示，仅有40%的美国人认为当前的经济状况主要是特朗普政策造成的，而非他继承的遗产。在奥巴马的整个总统任期内，这一比例从未超过45%。
但在特朗普第二任期仅三个月后，这一比例直接跃升至60%。
这就是关税政策的影响。如今，伊朗局势升级让人们可以更直接地将总统的政策与经济困境联系起来。
我们无法设想如果特朗普从未推出关税政策或发动这场战争，情况会好多少。即便没有这些行动，仍有可能存在顽固的通胀和其他糟糕的经济指标，美国人最终还是会将其归咎于他。
但总统单方面采取了让情况变得更糟的行动。尽管关税政策和战争的权力属于宪法赋予的立法部门，但他甚至都没有征求掌控参众两院的共和党人的支持。
而如今，这严重威胁到了他的政治遗产。
Trump’s original sin on the economy
May 14, 2026, 12:26 PM ET / CNN
Analysis by Aaron Blake
Updated May 14, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
President Donald Trump speaks to the media on the South Lawn on May 8.
Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg/Getty Images
In our polarized political age, it’s rare that 70% of Americans agree on anything. But right now, 70% of Americans agree that President Donald Trump is doing a bad job on the economy, according to a new CNN poll this week.
That number isn’t just big; it was previously unthinkable. The economy was Trump’s rock during his first term, with his disapproval rating on that issue never even reaching 50% in CNN data.
The story of how he got here is one of overriding hubris and unforced errors.
And the new CNN poll makes that clearer than just about anything to date.
Trump’s numbers on handling of the economy are his worst ever: 30% approving to 70% disapproving, according to the survey. That’s a minus-40 net disapproval.
Virtually all Democrats (97%) disapprove. But so do a whopping 79% of independents and even 30% of Republicans. Trump’s disapproval on the economy is now worse than Joe Biden’s or Barack Obama’s ever were.
The poll also shows 65% of Americans say Trump’s policies “have worsened economic conditions,” and 77% say they have “increased the cost of living” in their communities.
And it’s not just that Americans are still skeptical about the economy and are suddenly blaming the incumbent president; it’s that Trump actively did things that Americans saw as exacerbating a shaky economy.
He did that mostly with his tariffs and the Iran war, which the data suggests were the turning points in how Americans viewed his handling of the economy.
The tariffs and the war coincide with the largest and third-largest increases in Trump’s economic disapproval in either of his terms, in fact.
Trump’s disapproval rating on the economy jumped from 56% in March 2025 to 61% in April 2025, after he announced his “Liberation Day” global tariffs.
And it jumped from 61% in January, before he launched strikes on Iran in late February, to 69% in March and now 70% today.
(The only other time it rose by at least 5 points between two CNN polls was in his first few months as president in 2017, when his overall numbers first got much worse.)
These two events also happened at the same time as the largest increases in the percentage of Americans who say Trump’s policies “have worsened economic conditions.” That number jumped from 51% before the tariff announcement to 59% afterward. Then it jumped from 55% shortly before the war to 65% today.
In both instances, the percentage of Republicans who said Trump was harming the economy doubled — from 10% to 22% after the tariffs announcement, and from 13% to 27% after the Iran war began.
The new CNN poll also showed Americans attached both of these issues directly to their negative views of the economy.
Fully 65% said the implementation of tariffs has had a negative effect on their personal financial situation, and 75% said the same of the Iran war. That’s in addition to the 77% that said Trump’s policies overall have increased the cost of living where they live.
And on both of those Iran findings, even a majority of Republicans agree — which is striking.
Why? Because partisans tend to avoid blaming bad developments on politicians they like. They’ll often blame economic problems on environmental factors that are outside of a president’s control, or they’ll blame the policies of the previous president for dogging the incumbent.
Trump’s problem is that he has made it near-impossible for even many Republicans to give him that benefit of the doubt.
It’s no secret why gas prices have skyrocketed over the past two and a half months: the Iran war. And before that, Trump’s tariffs gave Americans an easy culprit to blame for what became prolonged inflation, increasingly dismal jobs numbers and suboptimal economic growth.
Fuel prices seen on a sign as a customer fills their vehicle on April 13 in Miami.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
The most telling data on this dynamic came shortly after the tariffs announcement last year.
A year into Trump’s first term, NPR-PBS-Marist College polling had showed just 40% of Americans said the current economic conditions were mostly a result of Trump’s policies, rather than something he inherited. That number never went higher than the mid-40s during Obama’s entire presidency.
But just three months into Trump’s second term, it leapt all the way up to 60%.
That was the tariffs in action. Today, the Iran war allows for drawing an even more direct line between the president’s policy and economic pain.
It’s impossible to run a counterfactual scenario, in which Trump never launches his tariffs or this war, to see how much better things might have been for him. It’s possible there could have still been stubborn inflation and other bad economic indicators that Americans would eventually have blamed on him.
But the president unilaterally took action that made things worse. He didn’t even bother to ask for buy in from the Republicans who run both chambers of Congress, despite both tariffs and war being powers the Constitution gives to the legislative branch.
And now it’s severely threatening his legacy.
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