2026年5月8日T17:40:56.160Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：亚伦·布莱克
发布时间：2026年5月8日，美国东部时间下午1:40
“在此投票”标识张贴于弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿某投票站外，摄于4月21日弗吉尼亚州特别选举期间，此次选举中弗吉尼亚州选民通过公投重划该州国会选区地图。
瓦莱丽·普莱施/彭博社/盖蒂图片社
两周前，弗吉尼亚州选民通过了全新的偏向民主党人的国会选区地图，当时人们普遍认为唐纳德·特朗普总统不择手段的选区操纵行动已经失败——甚至可能适得其反。
但事实证明，在政坛中两周时间足以发生翻天覆地的变化。
两项法院裁决——一项来自美国最高法院，另一项于周五由弗吉尼亚州最高法院作出——已彻底扭转了2026年重划选区战役的局势，共和党占据了明显优势。
这并不意味着共和党足以保住其在2026年的众议院多数席位，而且今年的影响可能比许多人预期的要更温和。
但重划选区之战如今显然已让共和党受益，并且可能在未来多年为他们带来更多帮助。
共和党迎来两场关键胜利
弗吉尼亚州最高法院周五推翻了此前民主党斥资数千万美元推动公投通过的选区地图。法院裁定，州议会民主党人在去年秋季推动该宪法修正案以发起公投的过程中，未遵循正确程序。
这意味着民主党无法获得原本有望为他们增加四个席位的新地图，他们只能在当前民主党占6席、共和党占5席的现有地图基础上努力翻转选区。
这条消息传出前一周，美国最高法院刚作出一项影响更为深远的裁决——该裁决不仅带有直接的党派倾向，还将产生长期影响，包括对美国种族政治格局。
4月7日的美国最高法院外景。
拉赫马特·古尔/美联社
在“路易斯安那州诉卡莱”案中，最高法院进一步削弱了《选举权法案》，使共和党更容易解散少数族裔占多数的选区——这类选区如今是民主党在美国南部的主要阵地。
共和党已迅速采取行动。田纳西州已拆分了以孟菲斯为中心的非裔占多数选区，将该州国会席位格局变为共和党9席、民主党0席；路易斯安那州预计很快也将取消其一或两个非裔占多数的选区；阿拉巴马州已提请法院解除要求其保留第二个少数族裔占多数选区的法庭命令。
共和党获得的优势并不像人们想象的那么大
根据CNN重划选区追踪工具的测算，共和党今年中期选举期间已为自己划定了多达15个、16个或17个有望获胜的新选区，而民主党划定的仅有5个，且全部位于加利福尼亚州。（犹他州新增的一个倾向民主党的选区则源于法院裁决。）
这对共和党而言无疑比两周前要好得多。
原本民主党只需翻转3个共和党席位就能打破议长迈克·约翰逊掌控的微弱多数，如今他们实际上可能需要翻转超过10个席位。
但这或许夸大了2026年选举面临的障碍。因为共和党划定的部分选区绝非板上钉钉的共和党胜选地盘，尤其是在民主党占优的年份。
例如俄亥俄州的新地图，理论上可为共和党增加两个席位，但也有可能一个席位都拿不到。尽管共和党计划通过得克萨斯州地图增加5个席位、佛罗里达州地图增加4个席位，但在民主党占优的年份，其中部分选区将极难拿下，尤其是考虑到特朗普在拉美裔选民中的支持率大幅下滑。
即便在弗吉尼亚州，民主党仍有可能在现有地图基础上翻转一个或多个选区，因此该裁决未必等同于损失四个席位。
“如果弗吉尼亚州维持现有地图，我们至少能翻转两个席位，”众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯周五对CNN表示，“鉴于共和党政策极不受欢迎，我们还在探索其他可选方案。”
在弗吉尼亚州最高法院周五作出裁决前，库克政治报告的艾米·沃尔特曾估算，即便弗吉尼亚州的地图被推翻，共和党在2026年的实际净收益可能也仅为4至5个席位。
共和党或无法保住多数席位
即便共和党迫使民主党需要翻转两位数的席位而非3个，民主党仍有很大可能做到。
原因在于特朗普总统的支持率处于历史低位。支持率低迷的总统不仅会输掉12个众议院席位，往往还会输掉更多。
5月7日，唐纳德·特朗普总统与正在粉刷华盛顿特区林肯纪念堂倒影池的工作人员交谈。
肯特·西岛/法新社/盖蒂图片社
特朗普在2018年中期选举中输掉了超过40个众议院席位；巴拉克·奥巴马在2010年中期选举中输掉了60多个席位；乔治·W·布什在2006年中期选举中输掉了约30个席位。
而特朗普当前的处境比除布什外的上述所有总统都更糟糕。
如今竞争性选区的数量有所减少，因此出现像以往中期选举那样的大规模浪潮选举的可能性似乎更低。但如果民主党能赢得足够多的席位翻转众议院多数，那也并不令人意外。
重划战役或将在未来多年利好共和党
与此同时，仅着眼于2026年的选举结果未免过于片面。因为所有这些变化——尤其是美国最高法院的裁决——都将在未来多年产生连锁反应。
而共和党真正可能获得的长期收益正源于此。
其一，即便部分选区在2026年民主党占优的年份无法确保共和党获胜，它们在整体上仍更倾向共和党。在2028年或2030年共和党选举环境更好的年份，这些选区完全有可能转为共和党稳固阵地。
其二，共和党可在未来多轮选举中继续拆分南部各州的少数族裔占多数选区，包括佐治亚州——尽管美国最高法院的此次裁决对2026年选举为时已晚。
目前尚不清楚他们能在这条路上走多远，这很大程度上取决于后续法院如何解释最高法院的此次裁决，民主党也将发起部分反击。但在该案裁决前的一项研究显示，若最高法院作出对共和党极为有利的裁决，共和党有望轻松增加十余个席位。
其三，重划选区之战已成常态化的残酷现实。
这一现实是：就目前而言，重划选区已沦为一场永无止境、为党派利益不择手段的竞赛，各州只要时机合适就会重新绘制选区地图，而这大概率对共和党有利。他们在这一进程中掌握着更多主动权。
民主党可通过废除其掌控州内的重划选区委员会、取消州级对党派选区操纵的其他限制来夺回部分权力。
但共和党在州政府层面占据更有利位置：他们掌握“三权分立”（同时控制州参众两院和州长职位）的州所对应的国会席位总数更多。
而如今美国最高法院又为这场注定会持续下去的重划选区之战提供了一件关键武器。
How the Republicans pulling ahead in the redistricting war affects the midterms
2026-05-08T17:40:56.160Z / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
PUBLISHED May 8, 2026, 1:40 PM ET
“Vote Here” signage is posted outside a polling location in Arlington, Virginia, on April 21, during a special election in which Virginia voters approved a referendum to redistrict the state’s congressional map.
Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Two weeks ago, after Virginia voters approved a new heavily Democratic congressional map, it was looking like President Donald Trump’s bare-knuckle gerrymandering push had fizzled – and might even backfire.
Two weeks, it turns out, is a long time in politics.
A pair of court rulings – one from the US Supreme Court and now one from the Virginia Supreme Court Friday – have sharply recast the 2026 redistricting battles in the GOP’s favor.
That doesn’t mean it’ll be enough to save the GOP’s House majority in 2026, and the impact this year could be more muted than a lot of people appreciate.
But the redistricting battle has now clearly benefitted Republicans. And it will probably help them even more in years to come.
A pair of GOP wins
The Virginia Supreme Court on Friday struck down a map passed after Democrats spent tens of millions of dollars to promote the referendum enacting it. The court ruled Democrats in the state legislature didn’t follow the correct procedure in setting up the constitutional amendment allowing the vote last fall.
That means Democrats won’t get a map that likely would have gained them four seats. They’ll instead have to try to flip seats on a map that currently features six Democrats and five Republicans.
That news comes after the US Supreme Court delivered an even more significant ruling last week – one with not just immediate partisan implications but also long-term implications, including for racial politics in America.
The US Supreme Court is seen on April 7.
Rahmat Gul/AP
In Louisiana v. Callais, the court further gutted the Voting Rights Act and made it easier for Republicans to disassemble the majority-minority districts that are about all Democrats today have in the Deep South.
The GOP has quickly set about doing that. Tennessee has already carved up a majority-Black district based in Memphis to give Republicans a 9-0 map, and Louisiana is expected to soon eliminate one or both of its majority-Black districts. Alabama has petitioned to lift a court order that requires it to keep a second majority-minority district.
The GOP’s edge is not as big as people think
Applying these changes to the CNN redistricting tracker, it’s looking like Republicans will have drawn as many as 15, 16 or 17 new winnable districts for themselves for this year’s midterms, while Democrats will have drawn five – all of them in California. (Utah also added a Democratic-leaning district, but it was because of a court ruling.)
That’s certainly a much better scenario for Republicans than two weeks ago.
Rather than Democrats having to flip the three Republican seats they needed to break Speaker Mike Johnson’s razor-thin majority, they could now effectively have to flip more than 10.
But that might actually oversell the hurdle that’s been created for 2026. That’s because some of the districts drawn by Republicans are far from guaranteed to go their way, especially in a good year for Democrats.
Ohio’s new map, for instance, could gain Republicans two seats, but it could also gain them none. And while Republicans intend their Texas map to gain them five seats, and their Florida map four, some of these districts will be quite difficult to win in a good Democratic year, particularly with Trump’s sharp decline in approval with Latino voters.
Even in Virginia, Democrats could still flip one or more seats on the current map in 2026, meaning the ruling isn’t necessarily a loss of four seats.
“If the current map holds in Virginia, we will at minimum flip two seats,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN on Friday. “And we’re exploring other options given how unpopular the policies of the Republican party have been.”
Before the Virginia Supreme Court ruled Friday, the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter estimated that actual net benefit for Republicans in 2026 was likely to be closer to four or five seats, even if the Virginia map was struck down.
The GOP might not be able to save its majority
Even if the GOP forces Democrats to flip double-digits worth of seats rather than three, that’s looking quite doable for the blue team.
That’s because Trump is a historically unpopular president. Presidents with low approval ratings don’t just lose 12 seats; they often lose a multiple of that.
President Donald Trump speaks with workers who have been painting the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, DC, on May 7.
Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images
Trump in 2018 lost more than 40 House seats. Barack Obama in 2010 lost more than 60. George W. Bush in 2006 lost about 30.
And Trump is worse off right now than all of those examples except Bush.
The universe of competitive seats is smaller these days, meaning a huge wave election would seem less likely than in these previous midterm elections. But it would still be surprising if the Democrats couldn’t win enough to flip the majority.
It will likely benefit Republicans for years to come
At the same time, it’s overly reductive to just look at how this will play out in 2026. That’s because all of this – and especially the US Supreme Court ruling – will reverberate for years to come.
And that’s where the GOP’s real likely gains could come in.
For one, even if these districts might not be red enough to go Republican in a good Democratic year in 2026, they’ll still favor Republicans in general. And they could well flip red in a better environment for Republicans – be that in 2028 or 2030.
For two, the GOP can continue to pull apart majority-minority districts in the South in the coming cycles, including in states like Georgia where the US Supreme Court’s ruling came too late for the 2026 election.
We still don’t know quite how far they can go in doing that; much depends on upcoming court cases interpreting the Supreme Court’s ruling, and Democrats will be able to fight back some. But one study before the case was decided suggested Republicans could gain well more than a dozen seats with a very favorable ruling.
And for three, there’s just the emerging reality of a constant redistricting war.
That reality: To the extent redistricting is now just a never-ending race to the bottom for partisan gain, where states draw new maps whenever it suits them, that likely benefits Republicans. They simply control more of the process.
Democrats could gain some power back by scrapping redistricting commissions in states they control and eliminating other state restrictions on partisan gerrymandering.
But Republicans are just in a better spot in state governments. The states where they hold the “trifecta” of both state legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion account for more seats.
And the US Supreme Court has now handed them a key weapon in a redistricting war that looks like it’s here to stay.
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