2026-05-07 美国东部时间上午05:00 / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
分析文章：
艾伦·布莱克
无论唐纳德·特朗普总统的处境如何，共和党在2026年中期选举中都将面临投票率挑战。毕竟事实已经证明，他的支持者基本只会在他的名字出现在选票上时才会蜂拥而出投票。
那么，如果再加上特朗普前所未有的低支持率，以及一系列甚至疏远了不少他自己支持者的举措，情况会如何？
我们已经开始看到端倪，这对共和党来说形势不容乐观。
最近几周的多项民调提前对2026年选举前的选民热情和投票动机进行了调查，结果显示共和党正面临实实在在的热情赤字。
正如CNN民调所显示的那样，共和党在这类指标上大幅落后已经持续数月。但尤其值得注意的是，与近期几次中期选举——包括有特朗普参选的那次——相比，共和党选民的热情低迷程度。
例如，本周《华盛顿邮报-美国广播公司新闻》联合民调显示，73%的民主党选民表示即将到来的选举比以往中期选举更重要。但仅有52%的共和党选民持相同看法。
这一比例远低于2022年9月时72%的共和党选民支持率，也低于2018年10月——特朗普执政期间最后一次中期选举前夕——63%的共和党选民支持率。
同样，3月底最新的CNN民调显示，仅有48%的共和党选民表示，他们投票是为了“传达支持唐纳德·特朗普的信号”。
这一比例远低于76%表示投票是为了反对特朗普的民主党选民。
同时也远低于2018年11月CNN民调中71%的共和党选民比例——当时他们表示投票是为了支持时任总统特朗普。
这一数据甚至略低于2022年10月时51%的民主党选民比例——他们当时表示投票是为了支持时任总统乔·拜登。
这一点尤其令人震惊，因为拜登在民主党中从未获得过特朗普在共和党中那样的忠诚度和拥戴度。但如今两党的相关民调数字却不相上下。
2026年3月5日，华盛顿国会山，众议院共和党人将讨论即将举行的众议院关于美国国土安全部拨款的投票。
布兰登·斯米亚洛夫斯基/法新社/盖蒂图片社
2026年1月24日，亚利桑那州普雷斯科特山谷，在芬达丰田中心举行的亚利桑那州共和党年度法定会议期间，科科尼诺县州委员会委员吉姆·帕克斯在等候核对代理选民登记文件时翻阅材料。
丽贝卡·诺布尔/路透社
另外，美国国家公共广播电台/PBS新闻台/马里斯特学院周三发布的民调显示，自称“非常热衷于投票”的民主党选民比例（61%）与2018年10月时的水平（60%）大致相当。但共和党选民的这一比例已从当时的65%降至如今的53%。
在所有这些数据中，我们将今年春季的民调结果与此前中期选举后期的民调进行了对比。共和党选民的热情有可能在未来几个月内回升，就像选举临近时常出现的情况那样。
但将近期民调与往年春季的民调相比，结果也大同小异。
例如，《华盛顿邮报-美国广播公司新闻》民调显示，72%的共和党选民表示他们“肯定会投票”。这一比例低于民主党选民的79%，也低于2022年选举周期同期民主党选民（78%）和共和党选民（83%）的比例。
值得注意的是，2022年的民主党选民比例是在最高法院推翻罗伊诉韦德案并为民主党注入活力之前的数据，当时拜登政府也并未特别能调动选民积极性。但即便如此，当时的比例仍高于如今共和党选民的投票意愿。
最后，马凯特大学法学院上月发布的民调显示，仅有28%的共和党选民及倾向共和党的独立选民表示，他们“非常热衷于”在中期选举中投票。
这一比例比民主党选民及倾向民主党的独立选民的比例（47%）低19个百分点。同时也远低于2022年5月时倾向共和党的选民比例（50%），甚至低于2022年5月时倾向民主党的选民比例（34%）。
2022年5月民调发布后不久，最高法院就推翻了长期以来的堕胎宪法权利，改变了中期选举的局势。而在距离选民投票还有六个月的时间里，还会发生很多事情。
但就目前而言，共和党在非总统选举年的投票率问题看起来比往常更加棘手。
The GOP’s enthusiasm problem
2026-05-07 05:00 AM ET / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
Republicans would have turnout challenges in the 2026 midterm elections regardless of how President Donald Trump was doing. After all, his base has proven they largely only come out in droves when his name is on the ballot.
So what happens when we add in Trump’s historic unpopularity and a series of moves that have alienated even many of his own supporters?
We’re starting to find out, and it doesn’t look good for the GOP.
A series of polls in recent weeks have taken an early look at enthusiasm and motivation to vote ahead of the 2026 election, and Republicans are suffering from a real deficit.
The party has trailed significantly on such measures for months, as CNN polling has showed. But what’s particularly remarkable is how unenthused Republicans are, compared to other recent midterm elections — including those involving Trump.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll this week, for instance, showed 73% of Democrats said the upcoming election is more important than past midterms. But just 52% of Republicans said the same.
That’s well shy of the 72% of GOP voters who said the same in September 2022, as well as the 63% who said the same in October 2018, just ahead of the last midterm when Trump was in office.
Similarly, the most recent CNN poll from late March showed just 48% of Republicans agreed that their vote would be cast to “send a message that you support Donald Trump.”
That was far less than the 76% of Democrats who said their vote would be cast to send a message of opposition to Trump.
And it was also far less than the 71% of Republicans who said their 2018 vote was intended to show support for then-President Trump, in a CNN poll in November of that year.
It’s also a smidge below the 51% of Democrats who said their 2022 midterm vote was meant to show support for then-President Joe Biden in October of that year.
That’s particularly striking because Biden has never commanded anything close to the level of loyalty and devotion in the Democratic Party that Trump has in the GOP. And yet, their numbers are similar.
House Republicans to discuss an upcoming House vote on funding for the US Department of Homeland Security, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on March 5.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
Jim Parks, Coconino County state committeeman, thumbs through paperwork while waiting to check in proxy voters during the Arizona Republican Party’s annual statutory meeting at Findlay Toyota Center in Prescott Valley, Arizona, on January 24, 2026.
Rebecca Noble/Reuters
Also, an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Wednesday showed the percentage of Democrats who say they’re “very enthusiastic” about voting today (61%) is about the same as October 2018 (60%). But Republicans’ number has dropped from 65% back then to 53% today.
In all of these numbers, we’re comparing polling from the spring of this year to later polling in previous midterms. And it’s possible GOP enthusiasm picks up in the months to come, as often happens when the election is more imminent.
But comparing the recent polling to previous springs tells a similar tale.
The Post-ABC poll, for instance, showed 72% of Republicans said they were “certain to vote” in the midterms. That’s less than Democrats (79%), and it’s also less than where both Democrats (78%) and Republicans (83%) were at about this point in the 2022 cycle.
And that 2022 Democrat number was, quite notably, before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and gave the party a shot in the arm. It also occurred when a less-galvanizing Biden was in office. But it was still higher than where the GOP is today.
Finally, a Marquette University Law School poll last month showed just 28% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independent voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms.
That’s 19 points less than the number for Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters (47%). It’s also far less than the May 2022 number for Republican-leaning voters (50%) and less than the May 2022 number for Democratic-leaning voters (34%).
Shortly after that May 2022 poll was released, the Supreme Court swooped in and changed the midterm calculus by overturning the long-held constitutional right to an abortion. And plenty will happen in the six months between now and when voters render their judgments.
But right now, the GOP’s non-presidential-election turnout problem is looking even more problematic than usual.
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