2026-05-04 20:59:02 UTC / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：凯文·利普塔克、亚当·克兰恩、扎卡里·科恩
发布于 2026年5月4日 美国东部时间下午4:59
在这张5月4日从伊朗ISNA通讯社获取的照片中，船只停泊在伊朗南部阿巴斯港外的霍尔木兹海峡。
阿米尔侯赛因·霍尔戈伊/ISNA通讯社/盖蒂图片社
唐纳德·特朗普总统引导船只穿越霍尔木兹海峡的举措，是一场高风险、高代价的尝试，旨在打破这场已成为他对伊朗战争标志性特征的对峙僵局。
但这场赌局却让美国与伊朗本就脆弱的停火协议濒临破裂，美伊双方军队在这片争议水域交火。如今，无人能完全确定这段脆弱的和平能否维持足够久，让停火谈判取得任何进展。
“当前局势非常糟糕且混乱，”一名地区消息人士告诉CNN。
几乎没有迹象表明德黑兰会在封锁海峡航道的行动上退让，特朗普对海峡僵局感到愈发沮丧。高油价以及即将到来的对华访问，都给他带来了必须找到办法恢复船只通航的压力。
因此，周日在佛罗里达高尔夫球场的特朗普宣布了一项计划：美国将协助引导特定船只穿越海峡，该计划被称为“自由计划”。风险很快显现。自近一个月前停火协议生效以来，伊朗导弹首次在迪拜上空被拦截。美国中央司令部称，美军摧毁了6艘伊朗小型船只。（伊朗国家媒体的一篇报道对此予以否认，称这些船只并未被击沉。）
这场无限期的停火协议似乎已濒临极限，没有明确迹象表明谈判解决方案即将达成。周日在接受CNN采访时，特朗普的外交特使史蒂夫·维特科夫在谈及与伊朗的谈判时仅表示：“我们正在进行对话。”
特朗普的一些盟友敦促他恢复对伊朗境内的轰炸行动，辩称美国已经削弱了伊朗政权，并坚称现在是进一步削弱其军事能力的最佳时机。
“我希望这场冲突能通过外交途径结束，但现在是时候恢复航行自由，如果伊朗执意恐吓世界，我们将对其采取强力回应，”共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆本周末在X平台上写道。
据以色列消息人士透露，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡计划近期访问华盛顿会见特朗普，他周一召开了安全会议。会后官员通过以色列媒体暗示，以色列已准备好恢复轰炸行动。
尽管发生了敌对行动，但尚不清楚特朗普是否有恢复对伊朗全境轰炸的意愿。他将一艘受损的韩国船只归咎于“某个无关国家”，并声称除此之外“没有船只在穿越海峡时受损”。在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时，谈及伊朗的无人机和导弹袭击，他同样表示：“有一枚袭击得手，但并未造成重大损失。”
但他在接受福克斯新闻电话采访时也警告称，如果伊朗袭击美国船只，伊朗将被“从地球上抹去”。
“我不会详细说明停火协议是否已经结束，”美国中央司令部司令布拉德利·库珀上将周一对记者表示，“我认为关键在于，对我们而言，我们只是作为防御力量存在，为商业航运提供极为严密的防御层，以便它们能够离开（波斯湾）。”
特朗普下周对北京的备受期待的访问，也可能让他重启对伊朗战争的决定变得更加复杂。他最初因冲突升级将原定于4月的访问推迟。中国呼吁开放霍尔木兹海峡，该国依赖的大量能源产品都需经此运输。
如果带着一场最多尚未解决、最坏情况是再次爆发的冲突抵达北京，特朗普在与中国领导人习近平的会谈中可能会处于弱势地位。
周一在接受福克斯新闻采访时，负责在特朗普访华前与中方进行初步磋商的财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，中国可以在说服伊朗允许船只通过海峡方面发挥更大作用。
“我们看看中国——看看他们能否挺身而出开展外交斡旋，促使伊朗开放海峡，”他说。
“自由计划”的起源可追溯至特朗普过去几天举行的多场会议，会上探讨了重新开放这条全球20%石油运输必经海峡的各种方案。伊朗一直拒绝美国关于允许船只通行的要求。
据一位知情人士透露，上周四特朗普听取了库珀上将和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军的45分钟简报，讨论了针对伊朗的最新军事计划，包括重新开放海峡的方案。
上周早些时候在白宫与能源企业高管的一次会议上，与会者向特朗普及其助手传达了对海峡局势的不同程度紧迫感，一位熟悉此次交流的人士表示，一些人警告特朗普和高级官员，海峡持续关闭会导致油价进一步上涨。
4月29日周三，加利福尼亚州长滩港的卡车和坦克。
埃里克·塞耶/《洛杉矶时报》/盖蒂图片社
另一些人则表达了更为乐观的看法，更多地赞扬特朗普封锁海峡并加大对伊朗经济施压的举措。
总统改变海峡局势的最新尝试之际，油气价格持续上涨，能源专家警告称，美国全国汽油均价可能在几周内突破每加仑5美元。
两位知情人士透露，特朗普政府官员一直在向能源行业代表施压，询问企业能否提高国内产量以缓解压力。但到目前为止，该行业拒绝做出任何重大承诺，担心大幅增产需要时间，且无法保证高价能维持多久。
“这种情况持续越久，油价就会越高。没有什么能替代霍尔木兹海峡的石油产出，”政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团负责伊朗和能源领域的高级分析师格雷戈里·布鲁说道。他补充称，根据已流失到市场的石油数量来看，“每加仑5美元的油价基本已成定局”。
据美国汽车协会（AAA）数据，美国汽油均价已从战争爆发前的每加仑2.98美元飙升至周一的4.46美元。
尽管油价上涨，但特朗普迄今并未选择通过武力重新开放海峡，而是采取了更为微妙的方式，专注于谈判让被困在波斯湾海域数月的部分船只撤离。
然而，尽管美国的封锁似乎确实损害了伊朗经济，但布鲁表示，目前几乎没有证据表明这对改变伊朗政权的决策起到了多大作用。伊朗仍在向油轮装载石油，这意味着其石油生产并未面临迫在眉睫的停产威胁。
尽管伊朗谈判代表一直在与美国就协议条款进行持续对话，但他们尚未表示愿意做出特朗普所要求的重大让步。
“一方面，政府在谈判中态度强硬，等待看封锁能否迫使伊朗做出更多让步，”布鲁说，“但与此同时，我不得不认为总统已经越来越没有耐心了。”
Trump’s gambit to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz tests the fragile ceasefire
2026-05-04 20:59:02 UTC / CNN
By Kevin Liptak, Adam Cancryn, Zachary Cohen
PUBLISHED May 4, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
In this picture obtained from Iran’s ISNA news agency on May 4, vessels are pictured anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas in southern Iran.
Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA/Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s initiative to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz was a high-stakes, high-risk attempt to jolt loose a resolution to the standoff that had come to define his war against Iran.
But the gambit has put the US’ fragile ceasefire with Iran under strain, as US and Iranian forces traded fire in the contested waterway. Now, no one is entirely sure whether the tenuous peace can hold long enough for halting negotiations to yield some resolution.
“It is very bad and messy at the moment,” a regional source told CNN.
With little sign Tehran would blink in its efforts to block traffic through the waterway, Trump had grown frustrated at the deadlock in the strait. High gas prices and a looming visit to China both created pressure to find a way to get vessels moving.
So from his golf course in Florida on Sunday, Trump announced a plan for the US to help guide certain ships through the strait, dubbed “Project Freedom.” The risks soon became apparent. Booms reverberated in Dubai as Iranian missiles were intercepted for the first time since a truce went into effect nearly a month ago. The US military destroyed six Iranian small boats, US Central Command said. (A report by an Iranian state media outlet disputed that the boats had been sunk.)
The open-ended ceasefire appeared to be stretching to its limit, without clear evidence a negotiated settlement may be near. Speaking to CNN on Sunday, Trump’s foreign envoy Steve Witkoff would only say of talks with Iran: “We’re in conversation.”
Some of Trump’s allies have encouraged him to resume the bombing campaign inside Iran, arguing the US has already weakened the regime and insisting the time was ripe to further degrade its military capabilities.
“I hope this conflict can end diplomatically, but it is now time to regain freedom of navigation and forcefully respond to Iran if they insist on terrorizing the world,” GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham wrote on X this weekend.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who Israeli sources say is planning a trip to Washington to visit Trump in the near future, convened security meetings Monday. Officials signaled in Israeli media afterward that the country was prepared to resume a bombing campaign.
Despite the hostilities, it was not clear whether Trump had the appetite to resume full-scale bombing inside Iran. He shrugged off a damaged South Korean ship as from an “unrelated Nation” and claimed otherwise there had been “no damage going through the Strait.” He similarly told ABC News of Iran’s drone and missile attacks, “One got through. Not huge damage.”
But he also warned in a phone interview with Fox News that Iran would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if it targets US ships.
“I wouldn’t go into details of whether the ceasefire is over or not,” Adm. Bradley Cooper, head of US Central Command, told reporters Monday. “I think the key thing is, for us, is we’re merely there as a defensive force and to give a very thick layer of defense to commercial shipping to allow them to proceed out of the (Persian Gulf).”
Trump’s highly anticipated visit to Beijing next week could also complicate his decision to resume the war with Iran. He initially delayed the trip from April while the conflict raged. China has called for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the energy products it relies upon pass through.
Arriving in Beijing with the conflict at best unresolved — or at worst raging yet again — could place Trump in a weakened position in his talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Speaking to Fox News on Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — who has been leading preliminary discussions with the Chinese ahead of Trump’s visit — said the country could do more to convince Iran to allow ships to pass through the strait.
“Let’s see if China – let’s see them step up with some diplomacy and get the Iranians to open the strait,” he said.
The origins of “Project Freedom” lie in meetings the president has held over the last several days exploring options for reopening the strait, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes. Iran has resisted US demands to allow ships to pass through.
Trump received a 45-minute briefing from Cooper and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, last Thursday to discuss updated military plans for Iran, including on reopening the strait, a source familiar with the matter said.
During an earlier meeting with energy executives at the White House last week, participants conveyed varying levels of urgency to Trump and his aides over the status of the strait, a person familiar with the exchange said, with some warning Trump and top officials of the continued consequences of the waterway’s closure on rising oil prices.
Trucks and tanks at the Port of Long Beach on Wednesday, April 29, in Long Beach, California.
Eric Thayer/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images
Others opted to deliver a more optimistic view focused more on praising Trump’s move to blockade the strait and ramp up economic pressure on Iran.
The president’s latest bid to change the dynamics in the strait came as oil and gas prices have continued to march upward, with energy experts warning that the US is likely only weeks away from averaging $5 per gallon for gasoline nationwide.
Trump officials have regularly pressed energy industry representatives over whether companies can ramp up domestic production to help alleviate the strain, two people familiar with the matter said. But the industry has so far declined to make any major commitments, wary of the time it would take to substantially boost output and the lack of a guarantee for exactly how long prices will remain elevated.
“The longer this goes on, the higher prices are going to get. There’s nothing that can replace Hormuz output,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst on Iran and the energy sector at political risk firm Eurasia Group, who added that based on the amount of oil already lost to the market, “$5 gas is basically baked in.”
US gas prices have skyrocketed from an average of $2.98 a gallon before the war started to $4.46 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA.
Despite those rising prices, Trump has so far declined to try to reopen the strait by force — opting instead to take a more nuanced approach focused on negotiating the exit of certain ships that have been stuck at sea for months in the Persian Gulf.
Yet while the US’ blockade does appear to be damaging Iran’s economy, Brew said, there’s little evidence so far that it’s done much to change the Iranian regime’s calculus. Iran has continued to load some oil onto tankers, meaning it’s not under imminent threat of having to shut down its production.
And while Iranian negotiators have maintained a running dialogue with the US over the parameters of a deal, they’ve yet to signal any willingness to make the significant concessions Trump has demanded.
“The administration on the one hand is digging in its heels in negotiations, waiting to see if the blockade forces the Iranians to make more concessions,” Brew said. “But at the same time, I have to imagine the president is getting impatient.”
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