共和党虽面临“艰难”环境，仍着眼扩大参议院多数席位优势，2026年战场席位分布图出炉
2026年5月4日 美国东部时间上午11:38 / 福克斯新闻
作者：保罗·施坦豪泽
参议院共和党竞选委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特对扩大多数席位“极度乐观”，同时也指出当前“艰难”的选举环境
美国南卡罗来纳州联邦参议员、全国共和党参议院委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特独家接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访，谈论共和党在中期选举中的胜算。
距离今年的中期选举还有6个月，全国共和党参议院委员会主席、参议员蒂姆·斯科特表示，共和党不仅能够守住，还可以扩大目前53比47的多数席位优势。
“毫无疑问，选举环境每天都变得愈发艰难，”斯科特在最近接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时坦言。但他强调，在捍卫共和党参议院多数席位的过程中，他仍然对中期选举“极度乐观”。
作为当前执政党，共和党本就面临着导致国会席位流失的传统政治逆风。再加上持续通胀、与伊朗不得人心的战争推高油价（民调显示该战争不受欢迎），以及总统唐纳德·特朗普低迷的支持率，让本就艰难的选举环境雪上加霜。
斯科特的对手、民主党参议院竞选委员会主席、参议员柯尔斯滕·吉利布兰德同样乐观地认为，民主党能够拿下参议院多数席位。吉利布兰德今年早些时候告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，她看到了“蓝色浪潮兴起的所有迹象”。
民主党中期选举势头增强，但共和党在参议院多数席位争夺中仍占据主动
以下是10个最有可能易主、进而可能改变参议院权力平衡的席位。
缅因州
共和党籍联邦参议员苏珊·柯林斯正在缅因州寻求第六个六年任期的连任，该州整体倾向民主党。
柯林斯是今年唯一寻求连任的共和党参议员，而副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在2024年总统大选中曾拿下该州，最终不敌特朗普。与六年前上次连任时相比，柯林斯在缅因州民众中的支持率已经出现下滑。
缅因州联邦参议员苏珊·柯林斯于2026年2月10日在华盛顿特区接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访。（保罗·施坦豪泽/福克斯新闻）
但长期以来一直是民主党参议院竞选委员会重点打击目标的柯林斯，向来难以被击败。
战略会议：特朗普团队就中期选举信息传递展开磋商
柯林斯的对手很可能是退伍军人兼牡蛎养殖户格雷厄姆·普拉特纳，在前两任州长珍妮特·米尔斯上周退出竞选后，普拉特纳几乎已经锁定民主党提名。普拉特纳得到了进步派参议员、佛蒙特州的伯尼·桑德斯和马萨诸塞州的伊丽莎白·沃伦的支持。
参议院候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳于2025年10月22日在缅因州奥甘奎特的莱维特剧院参加市政厅活动。（索菲·帕克/盖蒂图片社）
支持柯林斯的共和党团体已经就普拉特纳十多年前在Reddit上发表的关于强奸的争议言论，以及他胸前一个类似纳粹标志的广为人知的纹身对其展开抨击。
北卡罗来纳州
共和党正在捍卫这个东南部战场州的开放席位，共和党籍联邦参议员汤姆·提利斯将于今年年底退休。
前两任州长罗伊·库珀去年夏天宣布参选参议员后，民主党敲定了头号候选人。库珀在北卡罗来纳州拥有极高的知名度，在全州范围内的选举中保持6胜0负的纪录。
前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利（左）和前民主党州长罗伊·库珀几乎肯定会在战场州北卡罗来纳州2026年参议院选举中对决。（安吉拉·魏斯/法新社；亚采克·博查尔斯基/阿纳多卢通讯社/盖蒂图片社）
共和党则团结在获得总统支持的前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利周围。
知名无党派政治评级机构《库克政治报告》最近将该选区的评级从“势均力敌”调整为“倾向民主党”。
俄亥俄州
前资深联邦参议员谢罗德·布朗宣布将挑战共和党籍参议员乔恩·赫斯特，这让民主党又拿下一场重要的候选人招募胜利。
赫斯特曾担任副州长，一年前在时任参议员J·D·万斯辞职出任副总统后被任命填补参议院空缺。
俄亥俄州曾是顶尖的大选战场州，但在过去十年中已转向红色阵营，民主党认为布朗是这场竞逐万斯剩余两年任期的唯一有竞争力的候选人。
参议员乔恩·赫斯特和前参议员谢罗德·布朗将于11月在俄亥俄州展开备受期待的参议院对决。（汤姆·威廉姆斯/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via 盖蒂图片社；贾斯汀·梅里曼/彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社）
布朗在2024年的连任选举中以约4个百分点的差距落败，而特朗普在俄亥俄州以11个百分点的优势胜出。
但《库克政治报告》上个月将该选区的评级从“倾向共和党”调整为“势均力敌”，指出“即便共和党近期的民调也显示这场竞争已经胶着”。
乔治亚州
共和党认为首任联邦参议员乔恩·奥索夫是2026年寻求连任的民主党参议员中最脆弱的一位。
但奥索夫已经筹集了巨额竞选资金，而共和党在这个关键的东南部战场州面临一场激烈的三方党内初选争夺提名。
共和党认为佐治亚州联邦参议员乔恩·奥索夫是2026年中期选举中寻求连任的民主党参议员中最易被击败的一位。（亚伦·施瓦茨/彭博社/盖蒂图片社）
《库克政治报告》最近将佐治亚州该席位的评级从“势均力敌”调整为“倾向民主党”。
密歇根州
共和党正试图拿下密歇根州的开放席位，该州参议员加里·彼得斯即将退休。
前众议员迈克·罗杰斯曾在2024年赢得密歇根州共和党参议院提名，但以微弱劣势输给了众议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金，如今他再次参选，几乎已经锁定共和党提名。
民主党则面临一场三方党内竞争：中间派众议员黑利·史蒂文斯、自称“务实主义者”的州参议员马洛里·麦克莫罗，以及得到桑德斯支持的进步派医生阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德。
密歇根州共和党参议院候选人前众议员迈克·罗杰斯于2024年4月2日在密歇根州大急流城接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访。（保罗·施坦豪泽/福克斯新闻）
这场初选已经暴露了民主党内部的诸多分歧，也为得到特朗普支持的罗杰斯提供了大量攻击弹药，提名结果要到8月才能揭晓。
阿拉斯加州
前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉2月宣布将挑战共和党现任参议员丹·沙利文，这给民主党在这个倾向红色的州带来了巨大助力。
阿拉斯加州民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉将在2026年中期选举中挑战共和党参议员丹·沙利文。（贾宾·博茨福德/《华盛顿邮报》）
佩尔托拉15个月前在覆盖全州的单一国会选区选举中以3个百分点的差距输掉连任，而特朗普在阿拉斯加州以11个百分点的优势胜出。
得克萨斯州
资深共和党参议员约翰·科宁正在与州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿展开一场竞争激烈且火药味十足的共和党提名 runoff 对决。
到目前为止，特朗普尚未在这场将于5月底举行的 runoff 选举中表态支持任何一方。
科宁得到了参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩和全国共和党参议院委员会的支持，后者担心如果背负大量政治包袱的帕克斯顿赢得初选，该席位将变得脆弱。
现任参议员约翰·科宁（R-德克萨斯州，左）将在共和党初选中与德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿展开对决。（迈克尔·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社；安特拉尼克·塔维提安/彭博社 via 盖蒂图片社）
民主党方面已经提名了州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科，他是党内的后起之秀。
塔拉里科在今年头三个月的筹款额达到了惊人的2700万美元。
新罕布什尔州
共和党希望拿下新罕布什尔州长期由民主党把持的参议院席位，该州是新英格兰地区唯一的摇摆州，参议员珍妮·沙欣宣布退休，她是美国历史上首位同时当选州长和联邦参议员的女性。
连任四届的众议员克里斯·帕帕斯预计将在9月初的州初选中赢得民主党参议院提名。
新罕布什尔州民主党参议员珍妮·沙欣于去年宣布不会在2026年中期选举中寻求连任。（内森·波瑟/阿纳多卢通讯社）
共和党方面则有两位前参议员展开初选竞争，希望重返国会。前参议员约翰·E·苏努努是前州长克里斯·苏努努的兄长，得到了总统的支持，在公开民调中领先两位数。但特朗普首任政府驻新西兰大使、前参议员斯科特·布朗仍在参选。
艾奥瓦州
共和党正在捍卫艾奥瓦州的开放席位，该州曾是摇摆州，但在过去十年中转向右翼。
但共和党已经团结在得到特朗普支持的众议员阿什利·希金森周围，她将接替即将退休的共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特。
艾奥瓦州众议员阿什利·希金森于2025年9月4日在华盛顿特区接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访。她将在2026年竞逐即将退休的共和党参议员乔尼·恩斯特的席位。（保罗·施坦豪泽/福克斯新闻）
希金森曾是当地电视新闻主播，2020年成功拿下民主党掌控的席位，被视为党内的后起之秀。
民主党则有一场竞争激烈的初选，参选者包括残奥会选手、州众议员约什·图雷克，以及州参议员扎克·瓦尔茨。
佛罗里达州
佛罗里达州现任共和党籍参议员阿什利·穆迪作为该州总检察长，去年由州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯任命，填补了前国务卿马可·卢比奥留下的席位，她几乎已经锁定共和党提名。
佛罗里达州共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪于2025年10月21日在国会参议院投票结束后离开议事厅。（比尔·克拉克/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via 盖蒂图片社）
穆迪预计将在11月与民主党挑战者亚历克斯·文德曼展开对决，文德曼是退休陆军中校，曾是2019年特朗普-乌克兰丑闻的举报人，也是众议员尤金·文德曼的兄弟。
近期民调显示，在倾向保守的佛罗里达州，穆迪和文德曼的竞争将十分激烈。
荣誉提名：明尼苏达州
民主党参议员蒂娜·史密斯的退休让共和党看到了在这个倾向蓝色的州拿下席位的希望。
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全国共和党参议院委员会敲定了他们口中的顶级候选人：前NBC体育记者、保守派评论员兼活动家米歇尔·塔福亚，她身处共和党竞争激烈的候选人阵营之中。
明尼苏达州副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根作为进步派人士，将与更温和派的民主党众议员安吉·克雷格展开党内提名竞争，后者似乎得到了参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默的支持。
保罗·施坦豪泽是总部位于摇摆州新罕布什尔州的政治记者，全程报道横跨全美各地的竞选活动。
6 months to midterms: The Senate seats that could tip the balance of power
GOP eyes Senate majority expansion despite ‘difficult’ climate as 2026 battleground map emerges
May 4, 2026 11:38am EDT / Fox News
By Paul Steinhauser
Senate Republican campaign chair Tim Scott ‘extremely optimistic’ about expanding majority but spotlights ‘difficult’ climate
National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina speaks exclusively with Fox News Digital about the GOP’s chances in the midterm elections.
With six months to go until this year’s midterm elections, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chair, Sen. Tim Scott, says he believes the GOP can not only hold but expand its current 53–47 majority.
“There’s no doubt the climate has gotten more and more difficult by the day,” Scott acknowledged in a recent Fox News Digital interview. But he emphasized he remains “incredibly optimistic” heading into the midterms as he defends the GOP’s Senate majority.
Republicans — as the party currently in power — were already up against traditional political headwinds that lead to a loss of congressional seats. Add to that the challenging climate fueled by persistent inflation, rising gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, and President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings.
Scott’s rival and counterpart at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is also optimistic that is also optimistic, that Democrats can flip the chamber. Gillibrand told Fox News Digital earlier this year she sees “all the makings of a blue wave.”
DEMOCRATS BUILD MIDTERM MOMENTUM BUT REPUBLICANS STILL IN DRIVER’S SEAT IN SENATE MAJORITY BATTLE
Here’s a look at the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip and potentially flip the balance of power in the chamber.
Maine
Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election for a sixth six-year term in blue-leaning Maine.
Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this year in a state that then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried in her 2024 presidential election defeat to Trump. And Collins has seen a deterioration of her poll numbers among Mainers from her last re-election six years ago.
Sen. Susan Collins of Maine stands for an interview with Fox News Digital in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 10, 2026.(Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
But Collins, who has long been a top DSCC target, has proven tough to beat.
STRATEGY SESSION: TRUMP TEAM HUDDLES ON MIDTERM MESSAGING
Facing Collins will likely be veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner, the all-but-certain Democratic nominee after two-term Gov. Janet Mills dropped out of the race last week. Platner is backed by progressive champions Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
Senate candidate Graham Platner speaks at a town hall at the Leavitt Theater in Ogunquit, Maine, on Oct. 22, 2025.(Sophie Park/Getty Images)
Republican groups supporting Collins are already blasting Platner over controversial comments he made over a decade ago on Reddit about rape, and a well-publicized tattoo on his chest that resembled a Nazi symbol.
North Carolina
Republicans are defending an open seat in the southeastern battleground state, with GOP Sen. Thom Tillis retiring at the end of this year.
Democrats landed their top recruit when former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper launched a Senate campaign last summer. Cooper enjoys tons of name ID in North Carolina and is 6-0 when running statewide races.
Former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, left, and former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, are all-but-certain to face off in battleground North Carolina’s 2026 Senate race.(Angela Weiss/AFP/Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu/Getty Images)
Republicans are rallying around former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley, who has the president’s backing.
The Cook Report, a top nonpartisan political handicapper, recently shifted the race from toss-up to lean Democrat.
Ohio
Democrats scored another major recruiting victory when former longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown announced he would challenge Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
A former lieutenant governor, Husted was appointed to the Senate a year ago after then-Sen. J.D. Vance stepped down to serve as vice president.
Ohio, once a premier general election battleground, has turned red over the past decade, and Democrats view Brown as their only competitive candidate in the race to serve the final two years of Vance’s term.
Sen. Jon Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown will face off in a highly anticipated Senate race in Ohio in November.(Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images ; Justin Merriman/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Brown lost re-election in 2024 by roughly four points while Trump carried Ohio by 11 points.
But the Cook Report last month shifted its ranking from lean Republican to toss-up, noting that “even recent GOP polling” has indicated the race is all knotted up.
Georgia
Republicans view first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election in 2026.
But Ossoff has built a massive war chest while the GOP faces a nasty three-way primary battle for its nomination in the crucial southeastern battleground state.
Republicans view Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms.(Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
The Cook Report recently shifted the race in Georgia from toss-up to lean Democrat.
Michigan
The GOP’s aiming to flip an open seat in battleground Michigan, where Sen. Gary Peters is retiring.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who won the 2024 GOP Senate nomination in Michigan but narrowly lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin, is making a second straight bid and is the all-but-certain GOP nominee.
Democrats are dealing with a three-way fight between center-left Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a self-described “pragmatist,” and progressive physician Abdul El-Sayed, who is backed by Sanders.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, is interviewed by Fox News Digital in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on April 2, 2024.(Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
The primary has already exposed numerous Democratic Party divisions and provided Rogers, who is backed by Trump, with plenty of ammunition, and the nominee won’t be decided until August.
Alaska
Democrats were given a big boost in the red-leaning state when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced in February that she would challenge GOP incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Former Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, is running to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in the 2026 midterm elections.(Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
Peltola lost re-election 15 months ago in the at-large district that covers the entire state by three points, while Trump carried Alaska by 11 points.
Texas
Longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is in the middle of a competitive and combustible GOP nomination runoff battle against state Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton.
Trump, to date, has stayed neutral in the runoff, which will be held in late May.
Cornyn enjoys the backing of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the NRSC, which worries that the seat would be vulnerable if Paxton, who has plenty of political baggage, wins the primary.
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, left, faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a GOP primary runoff election.(Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images; Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The Democrats, who are eyeing the seat in the right-leaning state, nominated state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star in the party.
Talarico hauled in an eye-popping $27 million in fundraising the first three months of this year.
New Hampshire
Republicans are hoping to flip the long-held Democratic Senate seat in New England’s only swing state, thanks to the retirement of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the first woman in the nation’s history to be elected governor and senator.
Four-term Rep. Chris Pappas is expected to capture the Democratic Senate nomination in the state’s early September primary.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., announced last year that she wouldn’t seek re-election in the 2026 midterms.(Nathan Posner/Anadolu)
There’s a primary race on the Republican side between two former senators seeking a return to Capitol Hill. Former Sen. John E. Sununu, an older brother to former Gov. Chris Sununu, has the backing of the president and has a double-digit lead in public polling. But Trump’s first-term ambassador to New Zealand, former Sen. Scott Brown, remains in the race.
Iowa
Republicans are defending an open seat in Iowa, a onetime swing state that’s shifted to the right over the past decade.
But the GOP has rallied around Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is backed by Trump, in the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa sits for a Fox News Digital interview in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 4, 2025. She is running in the 2026 race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.(Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Hinson, a former local TV news anchor who flipped a Democratic-held seat in 2020, is seen as a rising star in the party.
Democrats have a contested primary that includes state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian, and state Sen. Zach Wahls.
Florida
Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who as Florida’s attorney general was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis last year to fill the seat once held by now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is the all but certain Republican nominee.
Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla., leaves the Senate floor after a vote at the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 21, 2025.(Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Moody will likely face off in November against Democratic challenger Alex Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel, whistleblower in the 2019 Trump-Ukraine controversy, and brother of Rep. Eugene Vindman.
Recent polling suggests a competitive race between Moody and Vindman in right-leaning Florida.
Honorable mention: Minnesota
The retirement of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is giving the GOP hopes they can flip the seat in the blue-leaning state.
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And the NRSC landed what they say is a top-tier recruit in former NBC sports reporter turned conservative pundit and activist Michele Tafoya, who is part of a crowded GOP field.
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flannagan, a progressive, is facing off against more moderate Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, who appears to have the backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, in the race for their party’s nomination.
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in the swing state of New Hampshire. He covers the campaign trail from coast to coast.
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