2026-05-03T09:00:50.826Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：阿里特·约翰
发布时间：2026年5月3日，美国东部时间凌晨5:00
斯蒂芬·马图伦/盖蒂图片社/档案照片
未来五周内，美国将有十多个州举行众议院初选。
其中一些初选将敲定关键的大选对决，可能决定11月美国众议院的控制权归属。另一些则将揭示塑造两党的政治动态，以及“具备当选能力”的真正含义。
唐纳德·特朗普总统的政治影响力将在肯塔基州和蒙大拿州一场竞争激烈的初选中接受高调考验：在肯塔基州，他将矛头对准众议员托马斯·马西；而在蒙大拿州则有一场拥挤的初选。与此同时，民主党人在宾夕法尼亚州、内布拉斯加州和加利福尼亚州的多场初选里展开角逐，两派就本党的未来走向以及谁最有可能拿下共和党掌控的选区持不同看法。
以下是六场值得关注的即将到来的初选。
5月5日：俄亥俄州第9国会选区
民主党众议员玛西·卡普tur在2024年以不到2400票的优势击败共和党前州众议员德里克·梅林。两年后，梅林正与其他四名共和党人展开一场拥挤的初选，争取再次对决卡普tur。
汤姆·威廉姆斯/CQ-罗尔Call公司/盖蒂图片社/档案照片
梅林曾提及此前双方的微弱差距，但其他候选人呼吁更换新面孔。梅林的对手包括空军退伍军人阿莱亚·纳德姆、医疗高管安东尼·坎贝尔、州众议员乔希·威廉姆斯，以及前移民海关执法局副局长麦迪逊·希恩。
共和党将此次选举视为拿下关键席位的绝佳机会。经过去年俄亥俄州的选区重划后，今年5月赢得初选的共和党候选人将在更有利于共和党的选区地图下参选——不过他们也将面临自由党候选人的挑战。两年前，一名自由党候选人获得了超过1.5万张选票，这很可能帮助了卡普tur。
但自1983年以来一直代表托莱多地区的卡普tur绝不可小觑。尽管特朗普在该选区以近7个百分点的优势获胜，她仍成功赢得了2024年的连任。
5月12日：内布拉斯加州第2国会选区
民主党人对拿下该席位持乐观态度，因为任职五届的众议员唐·培根已宣布退休。根据弗吉尼亚大学政治中心的数据，培根是2024年三名赢得前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯胜过特朗普的选区的共和党议员之一。
获得特朗普背书的奥马哈市议员布林克尔·哈丁已锁定共和党提名。与此同时，民主党人正陷入一场拥挤的初选。两名候选人——前企业高管丹尼斯·鲍威尔和州参议员约翰·卡瓦诺——在筹款和高端背书方面处于领先地位。
鲍威尔的盟友包括支持支持堕胎权的女性民主党候选人的EMILY清单组织，他们辩称，如果卡瓦诺当选，该州的共和党州长将能够选择他在州参议院的继任者，这可能会让州共和党多一张选票，从而改变内布拉斯加州在总统选举中分配选举人团票的方式。
内布拉斯加州和缅因州是仅有的两个按国会选区分配选举人团票的州。内布拉斯加州的一些共和党人呼吁改为赢家通吃的方式，并取消该州第2选区的“蓝点”（民主党优势区）。
鉴于这一问题的重要性，卡瓦诺在其竞选网站上专门设有一个板块讨论“蓝点”。他辩称，内布拉斯加州民主党人乐观地认为，他们将在11月的州议会选举中赢得席位，削弱共和党取消独立选举人团选区制度的能力。
自称中右翼智库的美国行动网络正在投放广告，称卡瓦诺“就在内布拉斯加州实施特朗普的政策”。这引发了人们的猜测，即特朗普的盟友试图在初选前利用民主党人打压卡瓦诺。
“这些黑暗资金超级政治行动委员会只是在传播‘让美国再次伟大’共和党人的 talking points，”州参议员乔治·邓根在卡瓦诺最近的一则广告中说道。
5月19日：肯塔基州第4国会选区
这场在稳固共和党选区举行的初选与众议院控制权无关，而是关乎总统对其政党的掌控。
七届议员、经常与特朗普作对的马西，正与获得总统背书的前海军海豹突击队队员埃德·加尔雷恩展开角逐。
J·斯科特·阿普怀特/美联社
在特朗普的第二任期内，马西经常与特朗普分道扬镳，并投票反对众议院共和党领导层的意愿。这些“反对”票——在支出法案和去年的《One Big Beautiful Bill Act》上——在共和党以微弱多数掌控众议院的背景下显得尤为重要。马西还推动推动众议院就要求司法部公开杰弗里·爱泼斯坦相关记录的立法进行投票。
特朗普还将矛头对准了马西的妻子，称这位议员已变得自由化，因为他的配偶据称是“激进左翼‘火焰喷射器’”。马西随后带妻子作为嘉宾出席了国情咨文演讲。
“所以现在他攻击我的妻子，而她曾三次为他投票，”马西在X平台上写道。“也许有人告诉他，其实是她建议我在晚宴上当面询问帕姆·邦迪，我们何时能拿到爱泼斯坦档案的第二阶段内容。邦迪说没有更多档案了。正如他们所说，后续都众所周知了。”
5月19日：宾夕法尼亚州第7国会选区
四名民主党人正在角逐，以争取在这场势均力敌的选区中挑战共和党众议员瑞安·麦肯齐。
州消防员工会主席鲍勃·布鲁克斯获得了 across the ideological spectrum 的背书，包括州长乔希·夏皮罗和佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯。他以民粹主义信息为竞选纲领，并宣扬自己经历过经济困难的经历，以此证明他理解工薪阶层选民关心的问题。
阿普里尔·加米兹/《阿伦敦晨报》/论坛新闻服务/盖蒂图片社
他的对手——前联邦检察官瑞安·克罗斯韦尔、前非营利组织高管卡罗尔·奥班多-德斯坦和前北安普顿县行政长官拉蒙特·麦克卢尔——已经开始抨击这位被视为领跑者的负面新闻。
在《华盛顿邮报》报道了布鲁克斯发布右翼社交媒体表情包的历史，包括在2019年得克萨斯州埃尔帕索发生致命枪击事件后为持枪权辩护的帖子后，克罗斯韦尔的竞选经理尼克·马蒂斯将布鲁克斯比作参议员约翰·费特曼——后者因偶尔与民主党同僚决裂并称赞特朗普而激怒了自由派人士。
“宾夕法尼亚州的选民不会再被愚弄了，”马蒂斯告诉《华盛顿邮报》。
布鲁克斯在给CNN的一份声明中为其中一些帖子道歉，并呼吁选民关注他为社区服务的记录。他还称自己是终身民主党人——这是在暗讽克罗斯韦尔成年后大部分时间都登记为共和党人。
6月2日：蒙大拿州第1国会选区
众议员瑞安·津克于3月初宣布不会寻求连任，为这个西蒙大拿州的席位带来了两场竞争激烈的初选。
这是一个共和党倾向的选区，民主党人认为在大选年只要选出合适的候选人，就有机会拿下该席位。津克在2024年以近8个百分点的优势击败了民主党候选人。
在民主党方面，大部分注意力都集中在萨姆·福斯塔格身上：他获得了桑德斯的背书，曾是空降森林消防员和工会领袖，代表了民主党用民粹主义候选人吸引工薪阶层选民的努力。但截至目前，他的筹款额落后于瑞安·巴斯——一位曾任职枪支公司高管、如今批评该行业的人士。陆军退伍军人兼牧场主马特·雷恩斯、海军退伍军人拉塞尔·克利夫兰也在角逐该提名。
在共和党方面，竞争激烈且有时充满争议。陆军国民警卫队退伍军人亚伦·弗林特于3月宣布参选，先后获得津克、共和党参议员蒂姆·希伊以及随后特朗普的背书。众议院共和党竞选团队将弗林特列入其秋季“让美国再次伟大多数党”名单。
他的对手包括医生、前州参议员阿尔·奥尔谢夫斯基，他在2022年以微弱劣势输给津克。上个月，津克在《每日因特湖报》发表的一篇专栏文章中严厉批评奥尔谢夫斯基，指责他“近十年来一直在向蒙大拿州撒谎，分裂保守派”，并利用其县共和党主席的职位“拉低优秀候选人的水平”。
奥尔谢夫斯基在给CNN的一份声明中称津克的攻击是“为了让我强劲的竞选活动偏离轨道而进行的绝望尝试”。
“这场选举归根结底就是这样：是华盛顿特区选择蒙大拿州的国会代表，还是蒙大拿州人民自己选择？”奥尔谢夫斯基说道。“我相信是蒙大拿州人民，我将继续通过聚焦关乎我们伟大州未来的议题来争取他们的支持。”
6月2日：加利福尼亚州第22国会选区
加州民主党人成功的选区重划行动，打乱了该州多个国会选区的共和党选情。
在加利福尼亚州第40选区，现任众议员杨金和肯·卡尔弗特在被划入同一选区后正在争夺连任。在第45选区，一场竞争激烈的共和党初选正在角逐，以挑战民主党新晋众议员德里克·特兰，该选区如今对他更为有利。
但在该州中央谷地，众议员大卫·瓦拉达奥仍将是6月2日初选中胜出的民主党人的强劲对手。
两名民主党候选人——州议员兼医生贾斯米特·贝恩斯，以及学区董事会成员兼活动家兰迪·维莱加斯——代表了党内的不同派系。
盖蒂图片社/路透社
贝恩斯得到了EMILY清单组织的支持，以温和派形象参选；而维莱加斯则以进步派身份参选。维莱加斯批评她投票反对去年民主党主导的选区重划，以及接受企业捐款。但一些民主党人认为，她敢于违背本党的立场在与瓦拉达奥的大选中是一项优势。
What six upcoming House primaries will reveal about Donald Trump and Democrats
2026-05-03T09:00:50.826Z / CNN
By Arit John
PUBLISHED May 3, 2026, 5:00 AM ET
Voters arrive at a polling place in Cincinnati, Ohio, during the 2024 presidential election.
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images/File
More than a dozen states are set to hold US House primaries in the next five weeks.
Some will set up key general election matchups that could determine control of the US House in November. Others will reveal something about the dynamics that are shaping the two parties and what it means to be electable.
President Donald Trump’s political power will be put to a high-profile test in Kentucky, where he’s targeted Rep. Thomas Massie, and a crowded primary in Montana. And Democrats are facing off in crowded primaries in Pennsylvania, Nebraska and California, with opposing visions of the party’s future and who is most likely to flip Republican-held districts.
Here are six upcoming primary elections to watch.
May 5: Ohio’s 9th District
Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur beat Republican former state Rep. Derek Merrin by just under 2,400 votes in 2024. Two years later, Merrin is running in a crowded primary against four other Republicans in his bid for a rematch.
Derek Merrin attends a campaign rally in Holland, Ohio, on October 26, 2024.
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc./Getty Images/File
Merrin has pointed to his previous close finish, but other candidates have called for a fresh face. Merrin faces Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem, healthcare executive Anthony Campbell, state Rep. Josh Williams, and former Immigration and Customs Enforcement Deputy Director Madison Sheahan.
Republicans see this as a key pickup opportunity. Whoever wins the primary this May will be running on a more favorable map for Republicans following last year’s Ohio redistricting — though they’ll also face a Libertarian Party candidate as well. Two years ago, a Libertarian candidate won more than 15,000 votes, likely boosting Kaptur.
But Kaptur, who has represented the Toledo area since 1983, can’t be underestimated. She won her 2024 reelection bid even as Trump carried the district by nearly 7 points.
May 12: Nebraska’s 2nd District
Democrats are optimistic about winning back this seat now that five-term Rep. Don Bacon is retiring. Bacon was one of three Republicans in 2024 to win a district that went for former Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump, according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Brinker Harding, an Omaha city councilman endorsed by Trump, has locked up the Republican nomination. Democrats, meanwhile, are wading through a crowded primary. Two candidates — former corporate executive Denise Powell and state Sen. John Cavanaugh — have led the field in fundraising and high-profile endorsements.
Powell’s allies, including EMILY’s List, which boosts Democratic women running for office who support abortion rights, have argued that if Cavanaugh is elected, the state’s Republican governor would be able to choose his replacement in the state Senate, potentially giving the state GOP an extra vote to change the way Nebraska awards Electoral College votes in presidential elections.
Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that award Electoral College votes by congressional district. Some Republicans in Nebraska have called for changing to a winner-take-all approach and eliminating the state’s “Blue Dot” in the 2nd District.
Reflecting the importance of that question, Cavanaugh has a section of his campaign website devoted to the Blue Dot. He argues that Nebraska Democrats are optimistic they will gain seats in the legislature in November, weakening Republicans’ ability to eliminate the standalone Electoral College district.
American Action Network, which describes itself as a center-right think tank, is airing ads saying Cavanaugh is “working to enact Trump’s policy right here in Nebraska.” That’s spurred talk that Trump allies are trying to undercut Cavanaugh with Democrats ahead of the primary.
“These dark money super PACs are just spreading MAGA Republican talking points,” state Sen. George Dungan says in one recent Cavanaugh ad.
May 19: Kentucky’s 4th District
This primary in a solidly Republican district isn’t about House control, but about the president’s control of his party.
Massie, the seven-term congressman and frequent thorn in Trump’s side, is running against former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who has the president’s endorsement.
Rep. Thomas Massie at the US Capitol on April 29, 2026.
J. Scott Applewhite/AP
Massie has frequently broken with Trump during the president’s second term and voted against the wishes of House Republican leadership. Those “no” votes — on spending bills and last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act —have held more weight as Republicans navigate a razor-thin majority. Massie also led a push to force a House vote on legislation requiring the Department of Justice to release its records on Jeffrey Epstein.
The president has also targeted Massie’s wife, saying the lawmaker has become a liberal because his spouse is supposedly “a Radical Left ‘flamethrower.’” Massie later brought her to the State of the Union address as his guest.
“So now he’s attacking my wife who voted for him three times,” Massie wrote on X. “Maybe someone told him she’s actually the one who suggested I ask Pam Bondi in person at a dinner when we would get Phase 2 of the Epstein files. Bondi said there were no more files. As they say, the rest is history.”
May 19: Pennsylvania’s 7th District
Four Democrats are vying for the chance to take on Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in this toss-up district.
Bob Brooks, the president of the state firefighters’ union, has picked up endorsements from across the ideological spectrum, including Gov. Josh Shapiro and independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. He’s running on a populist message and touting his experiences with financial hardship as evidence that he understands the issues that matter to working-class voters.
Bob Brooks speaks during Gov. Josh Shapiro’s visit to the fire department in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on April 18, 2025.
April Gamiz/The Allentown Morning Call/Tribune News Service/Getty Images
His opponents — former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, former nonprofit executive Carol Obando-Derstine and former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure — have started pouncing on negative stories about the perceived front-runner.
After the Washington Post reported on Brooks’ history of posting right-wing social media memes, including a post defending gun ownership following a deadly 2019 shooting in El Paso, Texas, Crosswell’s campaign manager, Nick Mattes, compared Brooks to Sen. John Fetterman, who has angered liberals by breaking with his fellow Democrats and praising Trump at times.
“Pennsylvania voters aren’t gonna be fooled again,” Mattes told the Post.
Brooks apologized in a statement to CNN for some of the posts and asked voters to look at his record of service to the community. He also said he was a lifelong Democrat — a dig at Crosswell, who spent most of his adult life as a registered Republican.
June 2: Montana’s 1st District
Rep. Ryan Zinke announced in early March that he would not seek reelection, setting up two competitive primaries for this western Montana seat.
This is the sort of Republican-leaning seat that Democrats believe they can win in a strong year with the right candidate. Zinke beat the Democrats’ 2024 nominee by nearly 8 points.
On the Democratic side, most of the attention has gone to Sam Forstag, a Sanders-endorsed former smokejumper and union leader who represents the party’s efforts to appeal to working-class voters with populist candidates. But he’s been outraised so far by Ryan Busse, a former gun company executive who now criticizes the industry. Matt Rains, an Army veteran and rancher, and Russell Cleveland, a Navy veteran, are also contesting the nomination.
On the Republican side, there is a competitive and at-times contentious primary. Aaron Flint, an Army National Guard veteran, entered the race in March with endorsements from Zinke, GOP Sen. Tim Sheehy and, soon after, Trump. The House Republicans’ campaign arm named Flint to its “MAGA Majority” list for the fall.
His rivals include Al Olszewski, a doctor and former state senator who narrowly lost to Zinke in 2022. Last month, Zinke laid into Olszewski in an opinion piece published by the Daily Inter Lake, accusing him of having spent “the better part of a decade lying to Montana, dividing conservatives,” and using his position as a county GOP chairman to “pull good candidates down.”
Olszewski described the attacks from Zinke as a “desperate attempt to knock my strong campaign off track” in a statement to CNN.
“This election really comes down to this: does Washington D.C. choose Montana’s congressman or do the People of Montana?” Olszewski said. “I believe it is the People of Montana, and I will continue to earn their support by focusing on issue-based messaging about the future of our great state.”
June 2: California’s 22nd District
California Democrats’ successful redistricting effort has scrambled the math for Republicans in several of the state’s congressional districts.
In California’s 40th District, incumbent Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert are battling for reelection after being drawn into the same district. In the 45th District, a contentious Republican field is vying to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Derek Tran in a seat that’s now more favorable for him.
But in the state’s Central Valley, Rep. David Valadao will still be a formidable opponent for whichever Democrat pulls ahead in the June 2 primary.
The two Democrats — state Assemblymember and physician Jasmeet Bains and school board trustee and activist Randy Villegas — represent different wings of the party.
Randy Villegas, left, and Jasmeet Bains.
Getty Images/Reuters
Bains, who is backed by EMILY’s List, has run as a moderate, while Villegas has run as a progressive. Villegas has criticized her for voting against advancing last year’s Democrat-led gerrymander and for accepting money from corporations. But some Democrats see her willingness to buck the party as an asset in a general election matchup against Valadao.
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