2026-05-02T11:00:51.076Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：杰夫·泽莱尼
发布于 2026年5月2日，美国东部时间上午7:00
唐纳德·特朗普 美国选举 州长选举 州与地方选举
杰·C·洪/美联社
加州上一次选出共和党州长已是20年前的事，但共和党候选人史蒂夫·希尔顿指出有600万选民的理由，让他相信再次做到这一点是可能的。
这是2024年唐纳德·特朗普总统在加州赢得的选票数，尽管他以20个百分点的差距输给了卡玛拉·哈里斯。但这一数字比特朗普2016年首次参选总统时在加州获得的票数多出160万，在这个深蓝民主党堡垒中是罕见的增长迹象。
距加州初选还有一个月，州长竞选已展开激烈混战，六名民主党人和两名共和党人作为主要竞争者，争夺将晋级11月大选的前两名席位。无党派初选 ballot上共有61名候选人。
如果民主党候选人分散了支持者的选票，那么共和党候选人——前福克斯新闻主持人希尔顿和河滨县警长查德·比安科——有可能在6月2日的初选中成为前两名获胜者，这并非牵强的设想。
“这是绝佳机会，”加州前众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡（共和党人）告诉CNN，“加文·纽瑟姆治理不善，候选人阵容又如此薄弱，这让选民有机会真正审视对加州而言更优秀的新人。”
马里奥·塔马/盖蒂图片社
尽管民主党人承认这种结果在数学上可行，但他们认为在特朗普时代，这种情况在政治上不太可能发生——特朗普在该州选民中普遍遭到厌恶和反对。
但即便出现全共和党人参与大选的可能性，也足以令民主党领导人不安。他们正试图在这场因纽瑟姆任职八年即将卸任而变得混乱的州长竞选中恢复秩序。
“我始终认为参选的民主党人太多了，”加州民主党主席拉斯蒂·希克斯表示，“我对挺身而出服务的民主党人深表敬意，我也知道他们明白选举民主党人出任下任州长的重要性，包括需要缩小候选人范围，确保我们在11月获胜。”
希克斯的直白评估凸显了这场竞选的不确定性。就在上个月，民主党众议员埃里克·斯沃韦尔因性行为不端指控退出竞选并辞去国会职务，使得这个美国人口最多州的州长竞选陷入混乱。
民主党候选人泽维尔·贝塞拉、汤姆·斯泰尔和凯蒂·波特等都在奋力争取优势，并为争夺同一批选民而战——这场不同寻常的竞选可能为共和党人创造正面交锋的机会。
帕特里克·T·法尔/法新社/盖蒂图片社
希尔顿已获得特朗普在此次竞选中的背书。
根据最新的哥伦比亚广播公司/舆观民调，比安科这位曾宣扬选举欺诈说法的警长，也在拥挤的候选人阵容中处于上层梯队，获得了两位数的支持率。
尽管共和党选民在加州占比远低于民主党，但只有希尔顿和比安科在认真争夺共和党选民。即便特朗普的背书为希尔顿在共和党选民中赢得了支持，如果希尔顿开始领先对手，这也可能降低他和比安科在次月初选中成为前两名的可能性。
但考虑到民主党挑战者之间的明争暗斗以及这场竞选尚无明确领跑者的现状，这一可能性并未被完全排除。
共和党人长达二十年的执政荒
阿诺德·施瓦辛格于2006年11月7日连任加州州长，至今已近20年——在共和党政坛更是恍如隔世。他的压倒性胜利是共和党人的巅峰时刻，而当晚对该党而言却是乔治·W·布什政府任期内最后一次中期选举的惨败之夜。
“我喜欢拍续集，”这位从演员转型为政客的施瓦辛格当晚在比佛利山庄对支持者说，“毫无疑问，这是我最爱的续集。”
戴维·麦克纽/盖蒂图片社/档案照片
2011年卸任时，这标志着共和党人在加州长期赢得高位的历史画上了句号。自1850年建州以来，加州已选出21名共和党州长，占历任38位州长的一半以上。
但罗纳德·里根（1967年至1975年任职）乃至皮特·威尔逊（1991年至1999年任职）时代的共和党早已成为过往。
正是威尔逊针对移民的强硬言辞以及对187号提案的支持——该提案旨在阻止无证移民获得政府服务——帮助加州脱离共和党阵营，成为如今的民主党堡垒。
变革的理由
民众对住房成本、无家可归问题、长期存在的州预算危机以及应对加州毁灭性野火的举措普遍不满，这为纽瑟姆两届任期后呼吁变革提供了土壤。纽瑟姆因任期限制无法再次参选，也未背书任何候选人，但共和党人已抓住他的政绩作为说辞。
“我们不能再沿着这条路走下去了，”希尔顿在上月的一场辩论中表示，“民主党人不断贪得无厌地征收更多税款，填他们那无底洞般的财政窟窿。”
比安科也一再抨击掌控加州所有州级公职的民主党人，称：“他们正在提高你的税收，花掉你越来越多的钱，因为他们拒绝停止挥霍。”
弗雷德·格里夫斯/路透社
但民主党候选人每次都以更响亮的批评回敬，矛头直指特朗普政府，尤其是去年总统下令将国民警卫队联邦化派驻加州，作为全国性移民打击行动的开端。
“我们需要的是会对抗唐纳德·特朗普的人，”贝塞拉在周二的一场辩论中表示，“而不是附和他。”
除了背书希尔顿，特朗普几乎未公开介入这场竞选。然而，总统在民主党和独立选民中极低的支持率，可能会给任何共和党候选人的成功之路增添变数。
“在当前美国政治的部落化环境下，我认为在全州范围内选举共和党人是不可能的，”加州资深共和党策略师罗布·斯塔茨曼告诉CNN。
“我确实认为共和党人未来在可负担性问题上能够取得进展——蓝州的治理经不起推敲，”他补充道，“但目前州长竞选中最大的议题，将是哪位民主党人最强烈地反对特朗普和移民海关执法局的突袭行动。”
Gone are the days when California had a Republican governor – or are they?
2026-05-02T11:00:51.076Z / CNN
By Jeff Zeleny
PUBLISHED May 2, 2026, 7:00 AM ET
Donald Trump US elections Gubernatorial elections State & local races
A California state flag stands next to a podium at the California Republican Party Convention in San Diego, on April 11.
Jae C. Hong/AP
Two decades have passed since California last elected a Republican governor, but GOP candidate Steve Hilton points to 6 million reasons why he believes it’s possible to do so again.
Those are the number of votes President Donald Trump won in California in 2024, despite losing the state to Kamala Harris by 20 points. Yet it was 1.6 million more votes than Trump earned there during his first presidential bid in 2016, a rare sign of growth in a deep-blue Democratic bastion.
One month before the California primary, a spirited free-for-all has broken out in the race for governor, with a half-dozen Democrats and two Republicans among the leading contenders vying for the top two positions that will advance to the November election. There are 61 total candidates who will be on the nonpartisan primary ballot.
If the Democratic candidates split the vote among their supporters, it’s hardly a far-fetched scenario that the Republican hopefuls – Hilton, a former Fox News host, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco – could emerge as the top two winners in the June 2 primary.
“It’s a perfect opportunity,” former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, told CNN. “The mismanagement of Gavin Newsom and such a weak field gives voters a chance to actually look at somebody new and better for California.”
Steve Hilton speaks to members of the press following a California gubernatorial debate at Pomona College on April 28.
Mario Tama/Getty Images
While Democrats concede that such an outcome is mathematically possible, they argue it’s not politically probable in the era of Trump, toward whom disdain and disapproval run deep among the state’s electorate.
But even the prospect of an all-Republican general election is enough to rattle Democratic leaders who are trying to bring order to an unwieldy contest to succeed Newsom after his eight years as governor.
“I continue to believe there are too many Democrats in the field,” Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, said. “I have deep respect for the Democrats who step forward to serve and I also know they understand the importance of electing a Democrat as our next governor, including the need to narrow the field to ensure we win in November.”
Hicks’ blunt assessment underscores the uncertainty in the race. The gubernatorial campaign in the nation’s most populous state was thrown into chaos when Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out and resigned from Congress last month amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
Democratic hopefuls Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter are among the party’s candidates who are scrambling to gain the upper hand – and fighting for the same voters – in an unusual contest that could create an opening for a head-to-head match between the Republicans.
From left: Democrat Tony Thurmond, Republican Chad Bianco, Democrat Tom Steyer, Republican Steve Hilton, Democrat Xavier Becerra, Democrat Katie Porter, Democrat Matt Mahan and Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa participate in a debate at Pomona College in Claremont, California, on April 28.
Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images
Hilton, for his part, has won Trump’s endorsement in the race.
Bianco, a sheriff who has embraced claims of election fraud, is also among the upper tier of candidates who received double-digit support in the crowded field, according to the latest CBS/YouGov California poll.
While Republicans comprise a far smaller share of California voters, only Hilton and Bianco are seriously competing for them. Even as Trump’s endorsement has given Hilton a boost among Republicans, it could also reduce the likelihood that he and Bianco may emerge as the top two finishers in next month’s primary, if Hilton begins to outpace his rival.
But it has not closed the door to that possibility, considering the jockeying among the Democratic challengers in a race with no clear frontrunner.
A two-decade GOP drought
It was nearly 20 years – and beyond a lifetime ago in Republican politics – that Arnold Schwarzenegger won reelection to a second term as California governor on November 7, 2006. His landslide victory was a highpoint for Republicans on an otherwise punishing night for the party in the final midterm election during the George W. Bush administration.
“I love doing sequels,” Schwarzenegger, the actor-turned-politician, told supporters that night in Beverly Hills. “This, without any doubt, is my favorite sequel.”
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger celebrates his reelection victory in Los Angeles on November 7, 2006.
David McNew/Getty Images/File
When he left office in 2011, it was the final act for Republicans after a long history of winning high office in California, which has elected 21 GOP governors since becoming a state in 1850 – more than half of the 38 governors overall.
But long gone are the days of the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan, who served from 1967 to 1975, and even Pete Wilson, who served from 1991 to 1999.
It was Wilson’s harsh rhetoric on immigrants and support for Proposition 187, a measure that sought to block undocumented immigrants from receiving government services, which helped turn California away from Republicans and into the Democratic stronghold of today.
An argument for change
A wave of discontent over housing costs, homelessness, a perennial state budget crisis and the response to devastating California wildfires has fueled an argument for change after Newsom’s two terms in office. He is prohibited by term limits from running again and has not endorsed a candidate, but Republicans have seized on his record to make their case.
“We cannot keep going in this direction,” Hilton said at a debate last month, “with Democrats constantly going for their insatiable appetite for more and more taxes for their bottomless money pit.”
Bianco has also repeatedly blasted Democrats who control every statewide office in California, saying: “They’re raising your taxes, they’re spending more and more of your money because they refuse to stop the spending.”
Chad Bianco speaks to the press in the spin room following a debate hosted by Nexstar in San Francisco, on April 22.
Fred Greaves/Reuters
But at every turn, the Democratic candidates have responded with even louder criticism of the Trump administration, particularly the president’s decision to federalize the National Guard in California last year as the opening salvo in a nationwide immigration crackdown.
“We need someone who’s going to fight Donald Trump,” Becerra said at a debate Tuesday, “not agree with him.”
Aside from his endorsement of Hilton, Trump has barely weighed in publicly on the race. Yet the president’s dismal approval rating among Democrats and independent voters likely complicates the successful path of any Republican candidate.
“In the current tribal environment of American politics, I don’t think it’s possible to elect a Republican statewide,” Rob Stutzman, a longtime Republican strategist in California, told CNN.
“I do think Republicans will be able to make progress in the years ahead on affordability issues – blue state governance doesn’t stand up well to scrutiny,” he added, “but the biggest topic in the governor’s race right now is which Democrat will oppose Trump and ICE raids the most.”
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